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The other two things that are happening. * LFPs are really starting to take off which pull a lot of pressure off higher capacity NMC batteries. * Sodium ion b

The other two things that are happening. * LFPs are really starting to take off which pull a lot of pressure off higher capacity NMC batteries. * Sodium ion batteries are just starting to hit the market which further reduce demands on Lithium. The ramp up on alternative chemistries is playing a fairly good role here and sodium ion will likely push prices down even more aggressively. Further, I expect that battery recycling will really start to be a major contributor to lower costs in the next 10 years or so. So I'd expect even lower prices as the battery market starts approaching saturation.

paddy_m 3y ago
You seem to know a lot about battery tech. What do you read to keep up to date?
- cogman10 3y ago
  Oh everywhere really. It's something I've been interested in for quiet a while. A battery related article was something I'd click on every time it came up on slashdot. Limiting factor [1] can be really good at breaking things down and covering current battery tech (they are fairly bullish on tesla). But I also get bits and pieces from google news feeds, renewable focused social media, and diving into anti-renewable social media :D. I don't mind reading into a critical piece to challenge my preconceived notions. It does help, though, to simply know who the big players are and watch what they are actually manufacturing (and then read up on that tech). I mostly ignore the "this battery is 8 billion times cheaper than lithium ion!" news stories because they are sensationalist. An article about CATL building a solid state battery line and now I want to know what it is, how it works, and what the cons are. CATL is probably the most interesting manufacturer to watch if you want to know where the cutting edge is. (Similar to TSMC being cutting edge when it comes to chip manufacturing). [1] https://www.youtube.com/@thelimitingfactor https://www.youtube.com/@thelimitingfactor
- stcredzero 3y ago
  Watch "The Limiting Factor" channel on YouTube. Seriously, it's like an engineering course crossed with an expensive besoke industry report.
solarkraft 3y ago
Is recycling even economical today? Won't it become less so as new batteries become cheaper?
- cogman10 3y ago
  > Is recycling even economical today? Very much so. I suggest watching the following video to see where we are at. [1] > Won't it become less so as new batteries become cheaper? Recycling will be the key to making batteries even cheaper. Getting already refined iron, nickel, and other chemicals will be far cheaper than trying to mine these materials fresh. Very similar to how pretty much all lead acid batteries are recycled. Mining new lead is a lot more expensive than reusing old lead. Recycling isn't always economical (see paper and plastic) but in the case of batteries, it absolutely is. The biggest problem battery recycle have is there's simply not enough batteries to recycles. Demand far outstrips supply at the moment. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2xrarUWVRQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2xrarUWVRQ
  - solarkraft 3y ago
    Thank you, that was impressive!

paddy_m 3y ago

You seem to know a lot about battery tech. What do you read to keep up to date?

cogman10 3y ago
Oh everywhere really. It's something I've been interested in for quiet a while. A battery related article was something I'd click on every time it came up on slashdot. Limiting factor [1] can be really good at breaking things down and covering current battery tech (they are fairly bullish on tesla). But I also get bits and pieces from google news feeds, renewable focused social media, and diving into anti-renewable social media :D. I don't mind reading into a critical piece to challenge my preconceived notions. It does help, though, to simply know who the big players are and watch what they are actually manufacturing (and then read up on that tech). I mostly ignore the "this battery is 8 billion times cheaper than lithium ion!" news stories because they are sensationalist. An article about CATL building a solid state battery line and now I want to know what it is, how it works, and what the cons are. CATL is probably the most interesting manufacturer to watch if you want to know where the cutting edge is. (Similar to TSMC being cutting edge when it comes to chip manufacturing). [1] https://www.youtube.com/@thelimitingfactor https://www.youtube.com/@thelimitingfactor
stcredzero 3y ago
Watch "The Limiting Factor" channel on YouTube. Seriously, it's like an engineering course crossed with an expensive besoke industry report.

solarkraft 3y ago

Is recycling even economical today? Won't it become less so as new batteries become cheaper?

cogman10 3y ago
> Is recycling even economical today? Very much so. I suggest watching the following video to see where we are at. [1] > Won't it become less so as new batteries become cheaper? Recycling will be the key to making batteries even cheaper. Getting already refined iron, nickel, and other chemicals will be far cheaper than trying to mine these materials fresh. Very similar to how pretty much all lead acid batteries are recycled. Mining new lead is a lot more expensive than reusing old lead. Recycling isn't always economical (see paper and plastic) but in the case of batteries, it absolutely is. The biggest problem battery recycle have is there's simply not enough batteries to recycles. Demand far outstrips supply at the moment. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2xrarUWVRQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2xrarUWVRQ
- solarkraft 3y ago
  Thank you, that was impressive!