4 ms·

Was there on average a good payoff to being fully non-orthodox? Not so sure. Being somewhat heterodox, perhaps, but certainly within limits.

WJW 3y ago
In addition to being non-orthodox, you also have to be right AND it has to be about a topic that lends itself to having a good payoff. You can be unorthodox and right about something but since the thing is 80s era laptop stand color scheme design there simply isn't a lot of profit to be had. It is also easy to be unorthodox about an important (high-payoff) thing, but simply be wrong. An airline that makes its route planning based on the idea that the Earth is flat could make an absolute killing if it actually were flat, but it isn't so it can't. The combination of all three is pretty rare.
- cubefox 3y ago
  Many, if not most, unorthodox truths can be very important, but don't offer an individual a large payoff when they believe them. For example, it is the middle ages, and you believe that witches don't exist. This is both an important truth and offers you approximately zero payoff.
  - RandomLensman 3y ago
    Might have even been a negative payoff if you had pursued it more publicly then.
    - cubefox 3y ago
      Yeah, saying unorthodox opinions out loud results in social penalties. That's why examples can't be produced for people who believe unorthodox opinions don't exist.
    - immibis 3y ago
      Everyone electrocutes themselves for 8 hours every day because the society demands it. Cognitohazard warning (a.k.a. depressing read): https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/
jimbokun 3y ago
I imagine it's a high risk high reward strategy. You cannot get outsized returns from following the orthodox strategy everyone else is following. But being unorthodox also risks ostracism from main stream society and all the consequences that entails.
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  Not sure that orthodoxy itself stops you from getting very far.

WJW 3y ago

In addition to being non-orthodox, you also have to be right AND it has to be about a topic that lends itself to having a good payoff. You can be unorthodox and right about something but since the thing is 80s era laptop stand color scheme design there simply isn't a lot of profit to be had. It is also easy to be unorthodox about an important (high-payoff) thing, but simply be wrong. An airline that makes its route planning based on the idea that the Earth is flat could make an absolute killing if it actually were flat, but it isn't so it can't. The combination of all three is pretty rare.

cubefox 3y ago
Many, if not most, unorthodox truths can be very important, but don't offer an individual a large payoff when they believe them. For example, it is the middle ages, and you believe that witches don't exist. This is both an important truth and offers you approximately zero payoff.
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  Might have even been a negative payoff if you had pursued it more publicly then.
  - cubefox 3y ago
    Yeah, saying unorthodox opinions out loud results in social penalties. That's why examples can't be produced for people who believe unorthodox opinions don't exist.
  - immibis 3y ago
    Everyone electrocutes themselves for 8 hours every day because the society demands it. Cognitohazard warning (a.k.a. depressing read): https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

jimbokun 3y ago

I imagine it's a high risk high reward strategy. You cannot get outsized returns from following the orthodox strategy everyone else is following. But being unorthodox also risks ostracism from main stream society and all the consequences that entails.

RandomLensman 3y ago
Not sure that orthodoxy itself stops you from getting very far.