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No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad a

No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad at planning so Elon liar. /s

stonogo 3y ago
No, he didn't say it was his "best guess." He said, and I quote, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast-forward a year … maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.” "Next year for sure" is not a "best guess."
- maxlin 3y ago
  Checking the transcript, it is not unreasonable to say that "Next year we'll have 1mil robotaxis on the road, the fleet wakes up by OTA update" means "Robotaxi-capable in hardware" which is the main sell, IE that you buy car now, when the software is ready, and Tesla is closer than anyone else in having anything like that ready, your car will take the role of Robotaxi. Maybe a bit ambigious wording like when what Sean Murray implied when the reality was a shared universe in place names, not realtime multiplayer at that stage
  - IshKebab 3y ago
    I don't know why you can't just accept that he makes crazy promises that are sometimes total nonsense. Sometimes his crazy promises do mostly pan out. But he's clearly massively over-promised in driverless cars. I'm really surprised there hasn't been a class action lawsuit from all the Tesla owners who were essentially tricked into paying $5k for a thing that can never exist.
    - maxlin 3y ago
      Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replaced. I don't see why the robotaxi idea wouldn't increase the potential value of almost any Tesla considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed > that can never exist. That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. Do you really truly believe that? Never heard anyone be _that_ pessimistic about it, especially with the continual improvements.
      - IshKebab 3y ago
        > the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally Than foreseen by Tesla. Everyone else knew they couldn't possibly achieve what Musk was claiming. > Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons After Waymo maybe. > considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed Haha there's no way 20 year old cars (minimum; by the time FSD actually works) are going to get sensor and compute upgrades. Not going to happen. > That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. I'm not sure what your analogy is meant to mean but I think you misunderstood me. I'm not saying driverless cars in general can never exist. Clearly they will eventually (maybe 10-20 years?). It's the upgrade to FSD that people have paid for that can never exist.
        maxlin 3y ago
        You are dumbfoundingly incorrect. Tesla is just so much ahead everyone else it is a bit ridiculous. I wouldn't wonder if many have already given up and are just waiting for Tesla to front the R&D then willing to license their tech. No one else has even close to Teslas NN chips, Dojo, custom simulators, the FLEET, willing free QA people, endless data sources as all cars have the hardware ... You also have no idea how time works throwing around something like 20 years. In AI age that just leads me to believe you are at least 10 years late in your thinking. 20 year guess for software is something no one can make. You do not even understand what field Tesla operates in if you're comparing it to Waymo. Waymo operates on HD maps and remote human operators who can take over every 5 minutes if needed. Those cars are not real "cars", you can't own them, they can't drive outside the city. They compete with electric scooters like Tier, Bolt, Lime, not Tesla. They have zero ability to grow, it's like comparing a hardcoded nature language engine to ChatGPT. (Also note that the gain in value Tesla has gotten after Autonomy Day hasn't actually even been lost. Long-term investors aren't gonna miss this one)
      - martin8412 3y ago
        Tesla is nowhere near the leader. The problem is hard, who could possibly have known? Oh right, any person with a bit of knowledge of how computers work and drive a car. Tesla can't make it reliably work in the car-centric USA. I'd love to see it perform in a busy Indian city or even just any old European city. Tesla cars do not last long, and the battery costs a fortune to replace when it dies or gets damaged out of warranty.

No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad at planning so Elon liar. /s

stonogo 3y ago

No, he didn't say it was his "best guess." He said, and I quote, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast-forward a year … maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.” "Next year for sure" is not a "best guess."

maxlin 3y ago
Checking the transcript, it is not unreasonable to say that "Next year we'll have 1mil robotaxis on the road, the fleet wakes up by OTA update" means "Robotaxi-capable in hardware" which is the main sell, IE that you buy car now, when the software is ready, and Tesla is closer than anyone else in having anything like that ready, your car will take the role of Robotaxi. Maybe a bit ambigious wording like when what Sean Murray implied when the reality was a shared universe in place names, not realtime multiplayer at that stage
- IshKebab 3y ago
  I don't know why you can't just accept that he makes crazy promises that are sometimes total nonsense. Sometimes his crazy promises do mostly pan out. But he's clearly massively over-promised in driverless cars. I'm really surprised there hasn't been a class action lawsuit from all the Tesla owners who were essentially tricked into paying $5k for a thing that can never exist.
  - maxlin 3y ago
    Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replaced. I don't see why the robotaxi idea wouldn't increase the potential value of almost any Tesla considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed > that can never exist. That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. Do you really truly believe that? Never heard anyone be _that_ pessimistic about it, especially with the continual improvements.
    - IshKebab 3y ago
      > the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally Than foreseen by Tesla. Everyone else knew they couldn't possibly achieve what Musk was claiming. > Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons After Waymo maybe. > considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed Haha there's no way 20 year old cars (minimum; by the time FSD actually works) are going to get sensor and compute upgrades. Not going to happen. > That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. I'm not sure what your analogy is meant to mean but I think you misunderstood me. I'm not saying driverless cars in general can never exist. Clearly they will eventually (maybe 10-20 years?). It's the upgrade to FSD that people have paid for that can never exist.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        You are dumbfoundingly incorrect. Tesla is just so much ahead everyone else it is a bit ridiculous. I wouldn't wonder if many have already given up and are just waiting for Tesla to front the R&D then willing to license their tech. No one else has even close to Teslas NN chips, Dojo, custom simulators, the FLEET, willing free QA people, endless data sources as all cars have the hardware ... You also have no idea how time works throwing around something like 20 years. In AI age that just leads me to believe you are at least 10 years late in your thinking. 20 year guess for software is something no one can make. You do not even understand what field Tesla operates in if you're comparing it to Waymo. Waymo operates on HD maps and remote human operators who can take over every 5 minutes if needed. Those cars are not real "cars", you can't own them, they can't drive outside the city. They compete with electric scooters like Tier, Bolt, Lime, not Tesla. They have zero ability to grow, it's like comparing a hardcoded nature language engine to ChatGPT. (Also note that the gain in value Tesla has gotten after Autonomy Day hasn't actually even been lost. Long-term investors aren't gonna miss this one)
    - martin8412 3y ago
      Tesla is nowhere near the leader. The problem is hard, who could possibly have known? Oh right, any person with a bit of knowledge of how computers work and drive a car. Tesla can't make it reliably work in the car-centric USA. I'd love to see it perform in a busy Indian city or even just any old European city. Tesla cars do not last long, and the battery costs a fortune to replace when it dies or gets damaged out of warranty.