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Elon also said that he will have 1 million Robotaxi by 2020

maxlin 3y ago
Again, Falcon 9 wasn't dependent on reuse and was profitable as-is. As Starship has a clear design goal of quick reuse, it's being designed a different vehicle altogether. The reuse isn't only for profitability on earth, it gets a bit more important on Moon and Mars.
bboygravity 3y ago
No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad at planning so Elon liar. /s
- stonogo 3y ago
  No, he didn't say it was his "best guess." He said, and I quote, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast-forward a year … maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.” "Next year for sure" is not a "best guess."
  - maxlin 3y ago
    Checking the transcript, it is not unreasonable to say that "Next year we'll have 1mil robotaxis on the road, the fleet wakes up by OTA update" means "Robotaxi-capable in hardware" which is the main sell, IE that you buy car now, when the software is ready, and Tesla is closer than anyone else in having anything like that ready, your car will take the role of Robotaxi. Maybe a bit ambigious wording like when what Sean Murray implied when the reality was a shared universe in place names, not realtime multiplayer at that stage
    - IshKebab 3y ago
      I don't know why you can't just accept that he makes crazy promises that are sometimes total nonsense. Sometimes his crazy promises do mostly pan out. But he's clearly massively over-promised in driverless cars. I'm really surprised there hasn't been a class action lawsuit from all the Tesla owners who were essentially tricked into paying $5k for a thing that can never exist.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replaced. I don't see why the robotaxi idea wouldn't increase the potential value of almost any Tesla considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed > that can never exist. That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. Do you really truly believe that? Never heard anyone be _that_ pessimistic about it, especially with the continual improvements.
        IshKebab 3y ago
        > the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally Than foreseen by Tesla. Everyone else knew they couldn't possibly achieve what Musk was claiming. > Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons After Waymo maybe. > considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed Haha there's no way 20 year old cars (minimum; by the time FSD actually works) are going to get sensor and compute upgrades. Not going to happen. > That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. I'm not sure what your analogy is meant to mean but I think you misunderstood me. I'm not saying driverless cars in general can never exist. Clearly they will eventually (maybe 10-20 years?). It's the upgrade to FSD that people have paid for that can never exist.
        3y ago

Again, Falcon 9 wasn't dependent on reuse and was profitable as-is. As Starship has a clear design goal of quick reuse, it's being designed a different vehicle altogether. The reuse isn't only for profitability on earth, it gets a bit more important on Moon and Mars.

bboygravity 3y ago

No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad at planning so Elon liar. /s

stonogo 3y ago
No, he didn't say it was his "best guess." He said, and I quote, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast-forward a year … maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.” "Next year for sure" is not a "best guess."
- maxlin 3y ago
  Checking the transcript, it is not unreasonable to say that "Next year we'll have 1mil robotaxis on the road, the fleet wakes up by OTA update" means "Robotaxi-capable in hardware" which is the main sell, IE that you buy car now, when the software is ready, and Tesla is closer than anyone else in having anything like that ready, your car will take the role of Robotaxi. Maybe a bit ambigious wording like when what Sean Murray implied when the reality was a shared universe in place names, not realtime multiplayer at that stage
  - IshKebab 3y ago
    I don't know why you can't just accept that he makes crazy promises that are sometimes total nonsense. Sometimes his crazy promises do mostly pan out. But he's clearly massively over-promised in driverless cars. I'm really surprised there hasn't been a class action lawsuit from all the Tesla owners who were essentially tricked into paying $5k for a thing that can never exist.
    - maxlin 3y ago
      Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replaced. I don't see why the robotaxi idea wouldn't increase the potential value of almost any Tesla considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed > that can never exist. That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. Do you really truly believe that? Never heard anyone be _that_ pessimistic about it, especially with the continual improvements.
      - IshKebab 3y ago
        > the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally Than foreseen by Tesla. Everyone else knew they couldn't possibly achieve what Musk was claiming. > Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons After Waymo maybe. > considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed Haha there's no way 20 year old cars (minimum; by the time FSD actually works) are going to get sensor and compute upgrades. Not going to happen. > That sounds like someone saying muskets are a fad. I'm not sure what your analogy is meant to mean but I think you misunderstood me. I'm not saying driverless cars in general can never exist. Clearly they will eventually (maybe 10-20 years?). It's the upgrade to FSD that people have paid for that can never exist.
        3y ago