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> Elon said in 2020… To be fair, Elon has said _a lot_ of things about his various projects and not all of them are based in reality.

by davely 3y ago

maxlin 3y ago
Everyone knows that, but Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while, and the whole "chopstick" lift tower has already been built, with the clear idea of ultimately landing Starships right in to it. And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw
- rbanffy 3y ago
  > And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds There lies the danger, considering his work leading Twitter.
  - ekianjo 3y ago
    I remember ignorant folks commenting on HN a while ago that Twitter would not last 3 months after the massive layoffs. Proven wrong over and over again.
    - ric2b 3y ago
      It didn't, and they had to implement very severe rate limiting just to keep it from falling over again. Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies.
      - kcplate 3y ago
        > Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies. So…you’re upset that you can’t do something for free now?
        ric2b 3y ago
        I didn't say I'm upset, I barely use Twitter, only when someone links to some specific tweet. I was just noting a clear downgrade in feature set, made (by Elon's own words) so Twitter can better handle the traffic after having fallen over multiple times.
        maxlin 3y ago
        Twitter has never been non-free. You just need to register. Premium is nice, but not that critical. I have one account with and one without, mostly just the 280 char limit annoys without premium but that's how twitter was before anyway
        kcplate 3y ago
        “Free” in the holistic meaning, not so much as paid monetarily, but requiring you to trade something (registration and login) for access. It’s not necessarily unreasonable in my opinion to expect login to view content or use the site.
        maxlin 3y ago
        There's no strong authentication requirement. As long as you have an extra gmail account or similar or are able to create one that is not connected to your person, you should be able to create a reasonably anonymous twitter account. (No I don't know how to create google accounts without using your residential VPN or avoid the phone auth if it ends up forcing that)
        maxlin 3y ago
        EDIT: dumb typo, I meant "residential IP"
        rbanffy 3y ago
        > avoid the phone auth if it ends up forcing that You can always buy a prepaid SIM and used hotspot-capable phone with cash.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        Use Nitter, or, you know, just log in. I used a lurker account for like 6 years, nowadays I'm more active as the place is more interesting. Haven't faced almost any technical problems, maybe a persistent 500 error once, 1/1000 times tweets dont load on my own page
      - nvm0n2 3y ago
        What rate limiting? The login requirement change is policy, not a rate limit.
        ric2b 3y ago
        There are very strict rate limits as well: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1675187969420828672 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1675187969420828672 I think they have increased them since then, but for a while Twitter was really struggling to serve regular users without hitting them with rate limit errors.
  - maxlin 3y ago
    This has to be the most ignorant comment here. Elon has been heading SpaceX as a Chief Engineer for a LONG time now, with undeniable success. How on earth would what he asks X/Twitter to do affect this, even if you considered that bad or the worst thing ever?
    - rbanffy 3y ago
      You do know that’s just the name of his role, not the job description, right? He was also quite adamant about not needing a fire suppression system on the pad while everyone else was saying to just dig a water trench and be over with it. Now he got his inverted shower head. It should work, but it delayed the second launch by almost a year.
      - dotnet00 3y ago
        People were talking about a flame trench, and it was just the usual "nooo you can't do things differently" kind of whining. Not all too different from people saying suicide burns and barge landings would not be reliable when early Falcon 9 landing attempts failed. Even the internal engineers (ie the only people who matter in this case due to being the only people with the data) expected the previous pad to at least survive the first test flight (with some ablation). The shattering was a surprise that did not fit their own models. Beyond that they had already started work on the current system as a long term solution prior to the first flight.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        Lol no. It is actually MORE de facto than de jure. Don't spread misinformation. I've seen that dogshit line replayed so many times. He's an engineer above everything else https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/evidence_that_musk_is_the_chief_engineer_of_spacex/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/eviden... https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw "by year" doesn't make sense. Also, the flame "plate" was a reasonable test, it hadn't been tried before. Engines failing at start doomed what was otherwise at the very limit from what we've understood. If you watched the launch, you saw how extremely long the rocket stayed on the pad. It was because with engine failures the thrust was too low to get off and it actually needed to lose fuel. It was like 5x the time it would have been held down otherwise. It's a misnomer that anything really went truly "wrong" with the test. It's like pressing F5 and seeing the "There were build errors" popup.
- bergie 3y ago
  > Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while We shall see. There might be some https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect in play with the Starship.
bboygravity 3y ago
Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said that hasn't become a reality and cannot become a reality in the next 10 years? 1 engineering or physics related thing. Deadlines don't count. I'm waiting...
- TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
  Everything Hyperloop related is not happening.
  - maxlin 3y ago
    Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this? Elon's not the first guy ever to hype the hyperloop idea. On its basis it is hard to think we won't this at some point as it promises essentially orbit-like capability on the surface, so everyone has the right to dream we'd get this sooner.
    - clort 3y ago
      "Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said" ..well known example is given.. "Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this?" you can see that those things are different.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        I think the reasonable limit is when something sounds like that he argues it is possible "soon" instead of not being thought about. Like, I don't think we'll have AGI or gene-modified catgirls in 10 years but those dont count as an answer to this. Hyperloop was always being to be extremely expensive and Elon's role on it was never but just try to be a catalyst for more innovation towards it. He used terms like "open-source idea" and did that student competition to try to kind of drive other people to grab the idea. Things like FSD are instead considered concrete and produced by his companies.
        heavenlyblue 3y ago

> Elon said in 2020… To be fair, Elon has said _a lot_ of things about his various projects and not all of them are based in reality.

by davely 3y ago

> Elon said in 2020… To be fair, Elon has said _a lot_ of things about his various projects and not all of them are based in reality.

maxlin 3y ago

Everyone knows that, but Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while, and the whole "chopstick" lift tower has already been built, with the clear idea of ultimately landing Starships right in to it. And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw

rbanffy 3y ago
> And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds There lies the danger, considering his work leading Twitter.
- ekianjo 3y ago
  I remember ignorant folks commenting on HN a while ago that Twitter would not last 3 months after the massive layoffs. Proven wrong over and over again.
  - ric2b 3y ago
    It didn't, and they had to implement very severe rate limiting just to keep it from falling over again. Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies.
    - kcplate 3y ago
      > Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies. So…you’re upset that you can’t do something for free now?
      - ric2b 3y ago
        I didn't say I'm upset, I barely use Twitter, only when someone links to some specific tweet. I was just noting a clear downgrade in feature set, made (by Elon's own words) so Twitter can better handle the traffic after having fallen over multiple times.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        Twitter has never been non-free. You just need to register. Premium is nice, but not that critical. I have one account with and one without, mostly just the 280 char limit annoys without premium but that's how twitter was before anyway
        kcplate 3y ago
        “Free” in the holistic meaning, not so much as paid monetarily, but requiring you to trade something (registration and login) for access. It’s not necessarily unreasonable in my opinion to expect login to view content or use the site.
        maxlin 3y ago
        There's no strong authentication requirement. As long as you have an extra gmail account or similar or are able to create one that is not connected to your person, you should be able to create a reasonably anonymous twitter account. (No I don't know how to create google accounts without using your residential VPN or avoid the phone auth if it ends up forcing that)
        maxlin 3y ago
        EDIT: dumb typo, I meant "residential IP"
        rbanffy 3y ago
        > avoid the phone auth if it ends up forcing that You can always buy a prepaid SIM and used hotspot-capable phone with cash.
    - maxlin 3y ago
      Use Nitter, or, you know, just log in. I used a lurker account for like 6 years, nowadays I'm more active as the place is more interesting. Haven't faced almost any technical problems, maybe a persistent 500 error once, 1/1000 times tweets dont load on my own page
    - nvm0n2 3y ago
      What rate limiting? The login requirement change is policy, not a rate limit.
      - ric2b 3y ago
        There are very strict rate limits as well: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1675187969420828672 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1675187969420828672 I think they have increased them since then, but for a while Twitter was really struggling to serve regular users without hitting them with rate limit errors.
- maxlin 3y ago
  This has to be the most ignorant comment here. Elon has been heading SpaceX as a Chief Engineer for a LONG time now, with undeniable success. How on earth would what he asks X/Twitter to do affect this, even if you considered that bad or the worst thing ever?
  - rbanffy 3y ago
    You do know that’s just the name of his role, not the job description, right? He was also quite adamant about not needing a fire suppression system on the pad while everyone else was saying to just dig a water trench and be over with it. Now he got his inverted shower head. It should work, but it delayed the second launch by almost a year.
    - dotnet00 3y ago
      People were talking about a flame trench, and it was just the usual "nooo you can't do things differently" kind of whining. Not all too different from people saying suicide burns and barge landings would not be reliable when early Falcon 9 landing attempts failed. Even the internal engineers (ie the only people who matter in this case due to being the only people with the data) expected the previous pad to at least survive the first test flight (with some ablation). The shattering was a surprise that did not fit their own models. Beyond that they had already started work on the current system as a long term solution prior to the first flight.
    - maxlin 3y ago
      Lol no. It is actually MORE de facto than de jure. Don't spread misinformation. I've seen that dogshit line replayed so many times. He's an engineer above everything else https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/evidence_that_musk_is_the_chief_engineer_of_spacex/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/eviden... https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw "by year" doesn't make sense. Also, the flame "plate" was a reasonable test, it hadn't been tried before. Engines failing at start doomed what was otherwise at the very limit from what we've understood. If you watched the launch, you saw how extremely long the rocket stayed on the pad. It was because with engine failures the thrust was too low to get off and it actually needed to lose fuel. It was like 5x the time it would have been held down otherwise. It's a misnomer that anything really went truly "wrong" with the test. It's like pressing F5 and seeing the "There were build errors" popup.
bergie 3y ago
> Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while We shall see. There might be some https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect in play with the Starship.

bboygravity 3y ago

Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said that hasn't become a reality and cannot become a reality in the next 10 years? 1 engineering or physics related thing. Deadlines don't count. I'm waiting...

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
Everything Hyperloop related is not happening.
- maxlin 3y ago
  Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this? Elon's not the first guy ever to hype the hyperloop idea. On its basis it is hard to think we won't this at some point as it promises essentially orbit-like capability on the surface, so everyone has the right to dream we'd get this sooner.
  - clort 3y ago
    "Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said" ..well known example is given.. "Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this?" you can see that those things are different.
    - maxlin 3y ago
      I think the reasonable limit is when something sounds like that he argues it is possible "soon" instead of not being thought about. Like, I don't think we'll have AGI or gene-modified catgirls in 10 years but those dont count as an answer to this. Hyperloop was always being to be extremely expensive and Elon's role on it was never but just try to be a catalyst for more innovation towards it. He used terms like "open-source idea" and did that student competition to try to kind of drive other people to grab the idea. Things like FSD are instead considered concrete and produced by his companies.
      - heavenlyblue 3y ago