4 ms·

Starship is designed with way faster turnaround time. Falcon 9 had optional reuse, while Starship aims to be the 747 of space access. Elon said in 2020: > Star

by maxlin 3y ago

Starship is designed with way faster turnaround time. Falcon 9 had optional reuse, while Starship aims to be the 747 of space access. Elon said in 2020: > Starship is being designed to be relaunched an hour after landing, with zero nominal work Now while that might take some time to reach, before that the pad itself is likely going to be capable of many launches every day given there's more ships. Starships seems to be made to be way more economical to manufacture per-ship than the shuttles or Saturns so I don't see a bottleneck in that.

davely 3y ago
> Elon said in 2020… To be fair, Elon has said _a lot_ of things about his various projects and not all of them are based in reality.
- maxlin 3y ago
  Everyone knows that, but Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while, and the whole "chopstick" lift tower has already been built, with the clear idea of ultimately landing Starships right in to it. And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw
  - rbanffy 3y ago
    > And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds There lies the danger, considering his work leading Twitter.
    - ekianjo 3y ago
      I remember ignorant folks commenting on HN a while ago that Twitter would not last 3 months after the massive layoffs. Proven wrong over and over again.
      - ric2b 3y ago
        It didn't, and they had to implement very severe rate limiting just to keep it from falling over again. Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies.
        kcplate 3y ago
        > Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies. So…you’re upset that you can’t do something for free now?
        ric2b 3y ago
        I didn't say I'm upset, I barely use Twitter, only when someone links to some specific tweet. I was just noting a clear downgrade in feature set, made (by Elon's own words) so Twitter can better handle the traffic after having fallen over multiple times.
        maxlin 3y ago
        Twitter has never been non-free. You just need to register. Premium is nice, but not that critical. I have one account with and one without, mostly just the 280 char limit annoys without premium but that's how twitter was before anyway
        kcplate 3y ago
        “Free” in the holistic meaning, not so much as paid monetarily, but requiring you to trade something (registration and login) for access. It’s not necessarily unreasonable in my opinion to expect login to view content or use the site.
        maxlin 3y ago
        There's no strong authentication requirement. As long as you have an extra gmail account or similar or are able to create one that is not connected to your person, you should be able to create a reasonably anonymous twitter account. (No I don't know how to create google accounts without using your residential VPN or avoid the phone auth if it ends up forcing that)
    - maxlin 3y ago
      This has to be the most ignorant comment here. Elon has been heading SpaceX as a Chief Engineer for a LONG time now, with undeniable success. How on earth would what he asks X/Twitter to do affect this, even if you considered that bad or the worst thing ever?
      - rbanffy 3y ago
        You do know that’s just the name of his role, not the job description, right? He was also quite adamant about not needing a fire suppression system on the pad while everyone else was saying to just dig a water trench and be over with it. Now he got his inverted shower head. It should work, but it delayed the second launch by almost a year.
        dotnet00 3y ago
        People were talking about a flame trench, and it was just the usual "nooo you can't do things differently" kind of whining. Not all too different from people saying suicide burns and barge landings would not be reliable when early Falcon 9 landing attempts failed. Even the internal engineers (ie the only people who matter in this case due to being the only people with the data) expected the previous pad to at least survive the first test flight (with some ablation). The shattering was a surprise that did not fit their own models. Beyond that they had already started work on the current system as a long term solution prior to the first flight.
        maxlin 3y ago
        Lol no. It is actually MORE de facto than de jure. Don't spread misinformation. I've seen that dogshit line replayed so many times. He's an engineer above everything else https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/evidence_that_musk_is_the_chief_engineer_of_spacex/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/eviden... https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw "by year" doesn't make sense. Also, the flame "plate" was a reasonable test, it hadn't been tried before. Engines failing at start doomed what was otherwise at the very limit from what we've understood. If you watched the launch, you saw how extremely long the rocket stayed on the pad. It was because with engine failures the thrust was too low to get off and it actually needed to lose fuel. It was like 5x the time it would have been held down otherwise. It's a misnomer that anything really went truly "wrong" with the test. It's like pressing F5 and seeing the "There were build errors" popup.
  - bergie 3y ago
    > Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while We shall see. There might be some https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect in play with the Starship.
- bboygravity 3y ago
  Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said that hasn't become a reality and cannot become a reality in the next 10 years? 1 engineering or physics related thing. Deadlines don't count. I'm waiting...
  - TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
    Everything Hyperloop related is not happening.
    - maxlin 3y ago
      Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this? Elon's not the first guy ever to hype the hyperloop idea. On its basis it is hard to think we won't this at some point as it promises essentially orbit-like capability on the surface, so everyone has the right to dream we'd get this sooner.
      - clort 3y ago
        "Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said" ..well known example is given.. "Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this?" you can see that those things are different.
        maxlin 3y ago
        I think the reasonable limit is when something sounds like that he argues it is possible "soon" instead of not being thought about. Like, I don't think we'll have AGI or gene-modified catgirls in 10 years but those dont count as an answer to this. Hyperloop was always being to be extremely expensive and Elon's role on it was never but just try to be a catalyst for more innovation towards it. He used terms like "open-source idea" and did that student competition to try to kind of drive other people to grab the idea. Things like FSD are instead considered concrete and produced by his companies.
        heavenlyblue 3y ago
cma 3y ago
Elon and Shotwell in 2018 said that by 2028 it will have operating passenger service for between a business class ticket and coach ticket price. They claimed it again around 2020 or 2021. Competitive pricing with air travel. And he said that the Semi will be competitive with rail and could already operate in follow the leader convoy mode back in 2017: they were just waiting on regulators to give the ok! Never seen testing it but I guess they did the whole project in secret and shelved it without applying to regulators in a public way.
- travisgriggs 3y ago
  How would this ever be possible given the volume of fuel a starship launch entails?
  - modeless 3y ago
    It would carry 1000 people, so divide by 1000, and methane is cheap, plus it's going to save up to 16 hours or so on long haul routes so people may be willing to pay a reasonable premium. The much bigger issue, to me, is safety. I don't see how the Starship design could ever be anywhere near as safe as regular air travel. There are also issues with noise requiring the launch and landing to take place far away from your destination, reducing the travel time benefit. And it's unclear if the general population would be able to tolerate the G-forces and wild maneuvers required.
    - bongobingo1 3y ago
      > landing to take place far away from your destination, reducing the travel time benefit. Thats where you get on your private jet to fly the last 10 miles. Simple.
- maxlin 3y ago
  This doesn't in any way even contest the original point. Timeline maybe, but we all know Elon(r) Valve(r) time, it's the kind of time we all hope would move faster but most don't rip their game pants out of impatience. About the Semi, there's zero reason to believe anything is being shelved. The truck itself is ready and being tested in practice by Pepsico and Tesla itself. Jay Leno teste drove it and was impressed. Where does this unnecessary negativity come from? We should cheer these kind of unique projects auspicious for civilization.
TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
Elon also said that he will have 1 million Robotaxi by 2020
- maxlin 3y ago
  Again, Falcon 9 wasn't dependent on reuse and was profitable as-is. As Starship has a clear design goal of quick reuse, it's being designed a different vehicle altogether. The reuse isn't only for profitability on earth, it gets a bit more important on Moon and Mars.
- bboygravity 3y ago
  No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad at planning so Elon liar. /s
  - stonogo 3y ago
    No, he didn't say it was his "best guess." He said, and I quote, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast-forward a year … maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.” "Next year for sure" is not a "best guess."
    - maxlin 3y ago
      Checking the transcript, it is not unreasonable to say that "Next year we'll have 1mil robotaxis on the road, the fleet wakes up by OTA update" means "Robotaxi-capable in hardware" which is the main sell, IE that you buy car now, when the software is ready, and Tesla is closer than anyone else in having anything like that ready, your car will take the role of Robotaxi. Maybe a bit ambigious wording like when what Sean Murray implied when the reality was a shared universe in place names, not realtime multiplayer at that stage
      - IshKebab 3y ago

by maxlin 3y ago

davely 3y ago

> Elon said in 2020… To be fair, Elon has said _a lot_ of things about his various projects and not all of them are based in reality.

maxlin 3y ago
Everyone knows that, but Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while, and the whole "chopstick" lift tower has already been built, with the clear idea of ultimately landing Starships right in to it. And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY73exaVpyw
- rbanffy 3y ago
  > And Starship seems to really be the main focus of Elon where he doesn't just lead but is in the weeds There lies the danger, considering his work leading Twitter.
  - ekianjo 3y ago
    I remember ignorant folks commenting on HN a while ago that Twitter would not last 3 months after the massive layoffs. Proven wrong over and over again.
    - ric2b 3y ago
      It didn't, and they had to implement very severe rate limiting just to keep it from falling over again. Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies.
      - kcplate 3y ago
        > Now when I open a tweet without being logged in I can't even see any replies. So…you’re upset that you can’t do something for free now?
        ric2b 3y ago
        I didn't say I'm upset, I barely use Twitter, only when someone links to some specific tweet. I was just noting a clear downgrade in feature set, made (by Elon's own words) so Twitter can better handle the traffic after having fallen over multiple times.
        maxlin 3y ago
        Twitter has never been non-free. You just need to register. Premium is nice, but not that critical. I have one account with and one without, mostly just the 280 char limit annoys without premium but that's how twitter was before anyway
        kcplate 3y ago
        “Free” in the holistic meaning, not so much as paid monetarily, but requiring you to trade something (registration and login) for access. It’s not necessarily unreasonable in my opinion to expect login to view content or use the site.
        maxlin 3y ago
        There's no strong authentication requirement. As long as you have an extra gmail account or similar or are able to create one that is not connected to your person, you should be able to create a reasonably anonymous twitter account. (No I don't know how to create google accounts without using your residential VPN or avoid the phone auth if it ends up forcing that)
  - maxlin 3y ago
    This has to be the most ignorant comment here. Elon has been heading SpaceX as a Chief Engineer for a LONG time now, with undeniable success. How on earth would what he asks X/Twitter to do affect this, even if you considered that bad or the worst thing ever?
    - rbanffy 3y ago
      You do know that’s just the name of his role, not the job description, right? He was also quite adamant about not needing a fire suppression system on the pad while everyone else was saying to just dig a water trench and be over with it. Now he got his inverted shower head. It should work, but it delayed the second launch by almost a year.
      - dotnet00 3y ago
        People were talking about a flame trench, and it was just the usual "nooo you can't do things differently" kind of whining. Not all too different from people saying suicide burns and barge landings would not be reliable when early Falcon 9 landing attempts failed. Even the internal engineers (ie the only people who matter in this case due to being the only people with the data) expected the previous pad to at least survive the first test flight (with some ablation). The shattering was a surprise that did not fit their own models. Beyond that they had already started work on the current system as a long term solution prior to the first flight.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        Lol no. It is actually MORE de facto than de jure. Don't spread misinformation. I've seen that dogshit line replayed so many times. He's an engineer above everything else https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/evidence_that_musk_is_the_chief_engineer_of_spacex/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/eviden... https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WY73exaVpyw "by year" doesn't make sense. Also, the flame "plate" was a reasonable test, it hadn't been tried before. Engines failing at start doomed what was otherwise at the very limit from what we've understood. If you watched the launch, you saw how extremely long the rocket stayed on the pad. It was because with engine failures the thrust was too low to get off and it actually needed to lose fuel. It was like 5x the time it would have been held down otherwise. It's a misnomer that anything really went truly "wrong" with the test. It's like pressing F5 and seeing the "There were build errors" popup.
- bergie 3y ago
  > Falcon 9 is extremely successful and Starship is the main project that's been in the making doing good strides once in a while We shall see. There might be some https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect in play with the Starship.
bboygravity 3y ago
Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said that hasn't become a reality and cannot become a reality in the next 10 years? 1 engineering or physics related thing. Deadlines don't count. I'm waiting...
- TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
  Everything Hyperloop related is not happening.
  - maxlin 3y ago
    Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this? Elon's not the first guy ever to hype the hyperloop idea. On its basis it is hard to think we won't this at some point as it promises essentially orbit-like capability on the surface, so everyone has the right to dream we'd get this sooner.
    - clort 3y ago
      "Can you give an example of 1 thing Elon said" ..well known example is given.. "Has Elon actually promised something concrete about this?" you can see that those things are different.
      - maxlin 3y ago
        I think the reasonable limit is when something sounds like that he argues it is possible "soon" instead of not being thought about. Like, I don't think we'll have AGI or gene-modified catgirls in 10 years but those dont count as an answer to this. Hyperloop was always being to be extremely expensive and Elon's role on it was never but just try to be a catalyst for more innovation towards it. He used terms like "open-source idea" and did that student competition to try to kind of drive other people to grab the idea. Things like FSD are instead considered concrete and produced by his companies.
        heavenlyblue 3y ago

cma 3y ago

Elon and Shotwell in 2018 said that by 2028 it will have operating passenger service for between a business class ticket and coach ticket price. They claimed it again around 2020 or 2021. Competitive pricing with air travel. And he said that the Semi will be competitive with rail and could already operate in follow the leader convoy mode back in 2017: they were just waiting on regulators to give the ok! Never seen testing it but I guess they did the whole project in secret and shelved it without applying to regulators in a public way.

travisgriggs 3y ago
How would this ever be possible given the volume of fuel a starship launch entails?
- modeless 3y ago
  It would carry 1000 people, so divide by 1000, and methane is cheap, plus it's going to save up to 16 hours or so on long haul routes so people may be willing to pay a reasonable premium. The much bigger issue, to me, is safety. I don't see how the Starship design could ever be anywhere near as safe as regular air travel. There are also issues with noise requiring the launch and landing to take place far away from your destination, reducing the travel time benefit. And it's unclear if the general population would be able to tolerate the G-forces and wild maneuvers required.
  - bongobingo1 3y ago
    > landing to take place far away from your destination, reducing the travel time benefit. Thats where you get on your private jet to fly the last 10 miles. Simple.
maxlin 3y ago
This doesn't in any way even contest the original point. Timeline maybe, but we all know Elon(r) Valve(r) time, it's the kind of time we all hope would move faster but most don't rip their game pants out of impatience. About the Semi, there's zero reason to believe anything is being shelved. The truck itself is ready and being tested in practice by Pepsico and Tesla itself. Jay Leno teste drove it and was impressed. Where does this unnecessary negativity come from? We should cheer these kind of unique projects auspicious for civilization.

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago

Elon also said that he will have 1 million Robotaxi by 2020

maxlin 3y ago
Again, Falcon 9 wasn't dependent on reuse and was profitable as-is. As Starship has a clear design goal of quick reuse, it's being designed a different vehicle altogether. The reuse isn't only for profitability on earth, it gets a bit more important on Moon and Mars.
bboygravity 3y ago
No, he never said that. He said his best guess would be 2020 after being put on the spot to come up with a date a few years in the future. Elon bad, Elon bad at planning so Elon liar. /s
- stonogo 3y ago
  No, he didn't say it was his "best guess." He said, and I quote, “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. From our standpoint, if you fast-forward a year … maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.” "Next year for sure" is not a "best guess."
  - maxlin 3y ago
    Checking the transcript, it is not unreasonable to say that "Next year we'll have 1mil robotaxis on the road, the fleet wakes up by OTA update" means "Robotaxi-capable in hardware" which is the main sell, IE that you buy car now, when the software is ready, and Tesla is closer than anyone else in having anything like that ready, your car will take the role of Robotaxi. Maybe a bit ambigious wording like when what Sean Murray implied when the reality was a shared universe in place names, not realtime multiplayer at that stage
    - IshKebab 3y ago