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I worked in a startup in commercial real estate during WeWorks glory days. It was interesting to talk privatetly to veterans in the industry. They pretty much

I worked in a startup in commercial real estate during WeWorks glory days. It was interesting to talk privatetly to veterans in the industry. They pretty much sounded like "this doesnt make any sense. I don't understand how it is possible. It shouldnt be possible. But they are doing it so they must be doing something right and we need to follow in order to not be left behind" So i guess they saw that something didnt make sense but then they got fooled by the old "everyone else celebrates them and everyone else cant be wrong"

nologic01 3y ago
Pretty much the blueprint for any and all bubbles. There might be a sense in which bubbles are getting more ridiculous over time (e.g., NFT) but it would be hard to prove it in any objective sense.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > There might be a sense in which bubbles are getting more ridiculous over time (e.g., NFT) but it would be hard to prove it in any objective sense. IMHO, the key driver to NFT were a bunch of early crypto whales who wanted/needed to cash out. Just dumping their coins on the open market would tank the valuation, but create a demand frenzy by contracting some high-profile influencers and now you can dump as many coins as you want and people will still buy them. Now, a lot of people are holding very very deep bags.
  - cdchn 3y ago
    They even had an acronym for it: FOMO
    - Mordisquitos 3y ago
      Though to be precise the acronym FOMO was already in use long before the cryptotoken bubble. FOMO originally referred to the fear of missing out from social events shared on social media (essentially only Facebook at the time), and was only later used for fear of missing out on making a quick buck by being an early buyer of the latest cryptocrap. In any case though, 'FOMO' is an equally good term for both phenomena.
- victorbjorklund 3y ago
  I sat out the whole NFT bubble but I would lie if I didnt at least once think "maybe I should learn how to code smart contracts because everyone is doing it" before dismissing it when realising NFT:s doesnt make any sense at all (and I have to yet see a blockchain use case that solves a problem better and cheaper than existing solutions)
  - unnouinceput 3y ago
    Smart contracts and NFT's are like cars and the blings clients put on their wheels. A car is a good thing, the blings not so much. So yeah, you should still learn to code smart contracts, NFT's are just one particular use of that. Oh, and they definitely still do smart contracts by millions nowadays in ETH blockchain.
- achenet 3y ago
  > There might be a sense in which bubbles are getting more ridiculous over time (e.g., NFT) but it would be hard to prove it in any objective sense. Remember tulips? [0] I think tulips were probably at least as ridiculous as NFTs. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
  - nologic01 3y ago
    Would be cool to have some sort of well defined "bubble-mania-meter" but it is unfortunately quite subjective. The role of scarcity is something interesting to consider as input. Scarcity (perceived or actual) is more natural with tulips or anything that is a tangible, real object. NFT's tortured way of creating "digital scarcity" sets them, imho, apart from other bubbles. Given how much of modern life revolves around digital they are probably the forerunner of much worse to come.
    - LudwigNagasena 3y ago
      Scarcity of paintings is almost completely artificial and their value rests on so-called provenance just as it does with NFTs.
      - nologic01 3y ago
        > almost completely strange but true, scarcity comes in different sizes. Is the infinity of NFT's the same as that of paintings? How many types of infinite junk are there? Or is this infinite itself?
        tim333 3y ago
        There is also an infinity of paintings. Pay me enough and I'll get a pot of paint and crank out as many as you like.
        nologic01 3y ago
        Sorry to bring you the bad news, but your lifetime is (likely) finite and each brush stroke takes away a bit of that precious finite time. In contrast, while digitally reproduced crap is also fundamentally finite, it can be replicated gazillion upon gazillion times more without any effort or sacrifice. This is the so-called zero-marginal cost of (re)production [1]. Some people think its a blessing, some people think its a curse. With AI algorithms it gets even worse. You don't only have infinite copies of the original, you also have infinite variations of the original. Interesting times. [1] https://books.google.nl/books/about/The_Zero_Marginal_Cost_Society.html?id=L6afAgAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y https://books.google.nl/books/about/The_Zero_Marginal_Cost_S...
epolanski 3y ago
Yeah, fintech and real estate don't go well together imho. There's just too much legal complexity, operational costs are heavy. Real estate is a well established and highly competitive industry, you can't "tech" it much imho.
fuzzfactor 3y ago
This is what I was thinking, saying "WeWork Goes Bankrupt" is not news at all, they've been going that direction for quite some time as the liquid resources were being systematically siphoned off. The actual news is more accurately captured in the title of the "dupe" thread where it says "WeWork Files for Bankruptcy".
larodi 3y ago
It's a relief to see it go bankrupt. WeWork could exist against all odds thanks to funny money, not to visionary execution, or real value... compared to other shared-office solutions. Besides, if you've ever visited some of these shared spaces, you'd know that they are in decline, and by all sanity - should be in decline post-COVID when people went home and felt comfortable doing so. Its a relief for all those owners of small shared spaces, who created the market, and were worried to see the market taken from them. It's a relief for everyone who thinks this can only work on a franchise basis. And for everyone else who felt this was going too fast in this dystopian future laid out in Neil Stephenson's Diamond Age where you have enclaves, etc. Now I'm looking forward to seeing someone try the illustrated primer business...
el_nahual 3y ago
Can you elaborate on which part exactly doesn't make any sense? The idea that one could rent wholesale then sublet retail (with a few value add goodies, printing, coffee, etc sprinkled in) is not "obviously" dumb to me.
- rchaud 3y ago
  It's dumb because their landlords locked them into a multi-year lease, while they're playing mini-landlord on the same property, to 'digital nomads' who aren't locked into anything. So they end up wasting money and effort on constantly acquiring new customers to offset existing customer churn.
  - tim333 3y ago
    Also in a downturn the nomads go off while the landlords are stuck paying.
  - MrMan 3y ago
    [dead]
hoofhearted 3y ago
I worked with an older fart many years ago who taught me some of my best investment strategy. He said that one time his 4 year old niece asked for an IPod for Christmas. He said that he didn’t know what that was; but if a 4 year old did, then it was probably gonna be big. So basically if common folks in your network interact with a particular product; then there is a good chance that it’s a billion dollar product. The inverse is the same, in that if few people have heard of a product, then it’s probably not a unicorn. Applying that logic to both WeWork and Theranos back when Uber was at peak, I asked around within my network if people knew of the anyone who had experience with either company. People said nope; never heard of it or used it. I thought that was very strange considering how often both companies were dominating HN at the time with mindshare about their insane success. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck; it’s probably a duck.
- tim333 3y ago
  Not sure that test works well with WeWork. Where I was in London most people had heard of WeWork as they had lots of events with free beer. Obviously it didn't seem to make them much money.
  - BobaFloutist 3y ago
    You need to ask people in different circles though. A cross section of people in your age bracket, people in your neighborhood, people in your family, people you work with, and people you buy things from should give you better info than just one of those groups.
  - hoofhearted 3y ago
    It did work for WeWork actually lol.. I kept seeing them pop up in strange places as I traveled the country for work; but I hadn’t ever met any business who used them, and I kept seeing them headline HN about being the next great unicorn. I thought it was strange that I didn’t know at least a single person in my business network with any experience of WeWork; most said “Who?” Then I later asked some of my non tech common folk friends if they knew anyone with any type of experience with WeWork. Same response lol.. Wasn’t long after that headlines started to come up in the news about turmoil. Rule 1: If everyone loves it including toddlers; it’s a good buy Rule 2: If your gut tells you something isn’t right; prod around and get some feedback on your instinct. If things aren’t adding up, just stay away. It’s not worth the risk or effort if things are fishy. Things might not unravel immediately, but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, and even looks like a duck… It’s probably a duck honk honk :)

nologic01 3y ago

Pretty much the blueprint for any and all bubbles. There might be a sense in which bubbles are getting more ridiculous over time (e.g., NFT) but it would be hard to prove it in any objective sense.

mschuster91 3y ago
> There might be a sense in which bubbles are getting more ridiculous over time (e.g., NFT) but it would be hard to prove it in any objective sense. IMHO, the key driver to NFT were a bunch of early crypto whales who wanted/needed to cash out. Just dumping their coins on the open market would tank the valuation, but create a demand frenzy by contracting some high-profile influencers and now you can dump as many coins as you want and people will still buy them. Now, a lot of people are holding very very deep bags.
- cdchn 3y ago
  They even had an acronym for it: FOMO
  - Mordisquitos 3y ago
    Though to be precise the acronym FOMO was already in use long before the cryptotoken bubble. FOMO originally referred to the fear of missing out from social events shared on social media (essentially only Facebook at the time), and was only later used for fear of missing out on making a quick buck by being an early buyer of the latest cryptocrap. In any case though, 'FOMO' is an equally good term for both phenomena.
victorbjorklund 3y ago
I sat out the whole NFT bubble but I would lie if I didnt at least once think "maybe I should learn how to code smart contracts because everyone is doing it" before dismissing it when realising NFT:s doesnt make any sense at all (and I have to yet see a blockchain use case that solves a problem better and cheaper than existing solutions)
- unnouinceput 3y ago
  Smart contracts and NFT's are like cars and the blings clients put on their wheels. A car is a good thing, the blings not so much. So yeah, you should still learn to code smart contracts, NFT's are just one particular use of that. Oh, and they definitely still do smart contracts by millions nowadays in ETH blockchain.
achenet 3y ago
> There might be a sense in which bubbles are getting more ridiculous over time (e.g., NFT) but it would be hard to prove it in any objective sense. Remember tulips? [0] I think tulips were probably at least as ridiculous as NFTs. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
- nologic01 3y ago
  Would be cool to have some sort of well defined "bubble-mania-meter" but it is unfortunately quite subjective. The role of scarcity is something interesting to consider as input. Scarcity (perceived or actual) is more natural with tulips or anything that is a tangible, real object. NFT's tortured way of creating "digital scarcity" sets them, imho, apart from other bubbles. Given how much of modern life revolves around digital they are probably the forerunner of much worse to come.
  - LudwigNagasena 3y ago
    Scarcity of paintings is almost completely artificial and their value rests on so-called provenance just as it does with NFTs.
    - nologic01 3y ago
      > almost completely strange but true, scarcity comes in different sizes. Is the infinity of NFT's the same as that of paintings? How many types of infinite junk are there? Or is this infinite itself?
      - tim333 3y ago
        There is also an infinity of paintings. Pay me enough and I'll get a pot of paint and crank out as many as you like.
        nologic01 3y ago
        Sorry to bring you the bad news, but your lifetime is (likely) finite and each brush stroke takes away a bit of that precious finite time. In contrast, while digitally reproduced crap is also fundamentally finite, it can be replicated gazillion upon gazillion times more without any effort or sacrifice. This is the so-called zero-marginal cost of (re)production [1]. Some people think its a blessing, some people think its a curse. With AI algorithms it gets even worse. You don't only have infinite copies of the original, you also have infinite variations of the original. Interesting times. [1] https://books.google.nl/books/about/The_Zero_Marginal_Cost_Society.html?id=L6afAgAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y https://books.google.nl/books/about/The_Zero_Marginal_Cost_S...

epolanski 3y ago

Yeah, fintech and real estate don't go well together imho. There's just too much legal complexity, operational costs are heavy. Real estate is a well established and highly competitive industry, you can't "tech" it much imho.

fuzzfactor 3y ago

This is what I was thinking, saying "WeWork Goes Bankrupt" is not news at all, they've been going that direction for quite some time as the liquid resources were being systematically siphoned off. The actual news is more accurately captured in the title of the "dupe" thread where it says "WeWork Files for Bankruptcy".

larodi 3y ago

It's a relief to see it go bankrupt. WeWork could exist against all odds thanks to funny money, not to visionary execution, or real value... compared to other shared-office solutions. Besides, if you've ever visited some of these shared spaces, you'd know that they are in decline, and by all sanity - should be in decline post-COVID when people went home and felt comfortable doing so. Its a relief for all those owners of small shared spaces, who created the market, and were worried to see the market taken from them. It's a relief for everyone who thinks this can only work on a franchise basis. And for everyone else who felt this was going too fast in this dystopian future laid out in Neil Stephenson's Diamond Age where you have enclaves, etc. Now I'm looking forward to seeing someone try the illustrated primer business...

el_nahual 3y ago

Can you elaborate on which part exactly doesn't make any sense? The idea that one could rent wholesale then sublet retail (with a few value add goodies, printing, coffee, etc sprinkled in) is not "obviously" dumb to me.

rchaud 3y ago
It's dumb because their landlords locked them into a multi-year lease, while they're playing mini-landlord on the same property, to 'digital nomads' who aren't locked into anything. So they end up wasting money and effort on constantly acquiring new customers to offset existing customer churn.
- tim333 3y ago
  Also in a downturn the nomads go off while the landlords are stuck paying.
- MrMan 3y ago
  [dead]

hoofhearted 3y ago

I worked with an older fart many years ago who taught me some of my best investment strategy. He said that one time his 4 year old niece asked for an IPod for Christmas. He said that he didn’t know what that was; but if a 4 year old did, then it was probably gonna be big. So basically if common folks in your network interact with a particular product; then there is a good chance that it’s a billion dollar product. The inverse is the same, in that if few people have heard of a product, then it’s probably not a unicorn. Applying that logic to both WeWork and Theranos back when Uber was at peak, I asked around within my network if people knew of the anyone who had experience with either company. People said nope; never heard of it or used it. I thought that was very strange considering how often both companies were dominating HN at the time with mindshare about their insane success. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck; it’s probably a duck.

tim333 3y ago
Not sure that test works well with WeWork. Where I was in London most people had heard of WeWork as they had lots of events with free beer. Obviously it didn't seem to make them much money.
- BobaFloutist 3y ago
  You need to ask people in different circles though. A cross section of people in your age bracket, people in your neighborhood, people in your family, people you work with, and people you buy things from should give you better info than just one of those groups.
- hoofhearted 3y ago
  It did work for WeWork actually lol.. I kept seeing them pop up in strange places as I traveled the country for work; but I hadn’t ever met any business who used them, and I kept seeing them headline HN about being the next great unicorn. I thought it was strange that I didn’t know at least a single person in my business network with any experience of WeWork; most said “Who?” Then I later asked some of my non tech common folk friends if they knew anyone with any type of experience with WeWork. Same response lol.. Wasn’t long after that headlines started to come up in the news about turmoil. Rule 1: If everyone loves it including toddlers; it’s a good buy Rule 2: If your gut tells you something isn’t right; prod around and get some feedback on your instinct. If things aren’t adding up, just stay away. It’s not worth the risk or effort if things are fishy. Things might not unravel immediately, but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, and even looks like a duck… It’s probably a duck honk honk :)