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Nearly every blue chip company just posted historical record Q3 earnings, yet the market is in full on correction territory. We ceased to be coupled with it a l

Nearly every blue chip company just posted historical record Q3 earnings, yet the market is in full on correction territory. We ceased to be coupled with it a long time ago.

s1artibartfast 3y ago
The market price for goods and stocks depend on their alternatives.
- refulgentis 3y ago
  Can you explain further how this relates to a projected stock market crash? (Other than ECO101 of 'if bonds go up stocks go down')
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    Do you have a specific question? 99% of it comes down to Econ101 and asking where the best return is expected. Edit: Berkshire Hathaway's largest position is apple. PE of 30, or 3.3% of value, and take on some risk. Alternatively, you can purchase bonds at a 5.3% rate, and basically no risk. You will put your money in bonds unless you have a hot tip about apple sales. You might even sell some of your apple stock to buy more bonds.
    - refulgentis 3y ago
      If you're projecting a crash, I assume there's more to it than "bonds up stocks down". Is there?
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
        Depends on what you are calling a crash. I didn't make any specific claim, but I expect stocks to continue going down as long as bonds are high. Berkshire Hathaway's largest position is apple. PE of 30, or 3.3% of value, and take on some risk. Alternatively, you can purchase bonds at a 5.3% rate, and basically no risk. You will put your money in bonds unless you have a hot tip about apple sales. You might even sell some of your apple stock to buy more bonds. If apple stock dropped 30%, then it still would yield less than risk free bonds. Edit: Berkshire Hathaway earnings are up 40% because they are buying bonds, not selling more product.
refulgentis 3y ago
Correction? I'm like maybe I missed something? Let's look at SPY, haven't done that in a month - 3% off ATH - up 25% YoY - up 2% MoM - up 5% WoW Shrug
- ramesh31 3y ago
  >3% off ATH - up 25% YoY - up 2% MoM - up 5% WoW Take a look at the 6 month. We're at the top of a 5 day dead-cat from the last dip right now. I'd put SPY at 420 for 11/10 if I were a gambling man. Not saying we're headed for a "crash", but there is simply no case to be made for equities in the next 18 months if you are concerned with capital preservation.

Nearly every blue chip company just posted historical record Q3 earnings, yet the market is in full on correction territory. We ceased to be coupled with it a long time ago.

s1artibartfast 3y ago

The market price for goods and stocks depend on their alternatives.

refulgentis 3y ago
Can you explain further how this relates to a projected stock market crash? (Other than ECO101 of 'if bonds go up stocks go down')
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  Do you have a specific question? 99% of it comes down to Econ101 and asking where the best return is expected. Edit: Berkshire Hathaway's largest position is apple. PE of 30, or 3.3% of value, and take on some risk. Alternatively, you can purchase bonds at a 5.3% rate, and basically no risk. You will put your money in bonds unless you have a hot tip about apple sales. You might even sell some of your apple stock to buy more bonds.
  - refulgentis 3y ago
    If you're projecting a crash, I assume there's more to it than "bonds up stocks down". Is there?
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      Depends on what you are calling a crash. I didn't make any specific claim, but I expect stocks to continue going down as long as bonds are high. Berkshire Hathaway's largest position is apple. PE of 30, or 3.3% of value, and take on some risk. Alternatively, you can purchase bonds at a 5.3% rate, and basically no risk. You will put your money in bonds unless you have a hot tip about apple sales. You might even sell some of your apple stock to buy more bonds. If apple stock dropped 30%, then it still would yield less than risk free bonds. Edit: Berkshire Hathaway earnings are up 40% because they are buying bonds, not selling more product.

refulgentis 3y ago

Correction? I'm like maybe I missed something? Let's look at SPY, haven't done that in a month - 3% off ATH - up 25% YoY - up 2% MoM - up 5% WoW Shrug

ramesh31 3y ago
>3% off ATH - up 25% YoY - up 2% MoM - up 5% WoW Take a look at the 6 month. We're at the top of a 5 day dead-cat from the last dip right now. I'd put SPY at 420 for 11/10 if I were a gambling man. Not saying we're headed for a "crash", but there is simply no case to be made for equities in the next 18 months if you are concerned with capital preservation.