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“Went aren’t you saving for retirement? You could be a multimillionaire!” 1. I’ll only be a millionaire because of inflation over my lifetime. 2. Social Secur

“Went aren’t you saving for retirement? You could be a multimillionaire!” 1. I’ll only be a millionaire because of inflation over my lifetime. 2. Social Security is less than a decade from insolvency, just as a generation with huge swaths of people with few savings is retiring. Meaning, something will change and it’s safe enough to wait and see. 3. Saving for retirement is a luxury reserved for the folks who don’t live paycheck to paycheck. For those who do, would their savings even be enough to matter? 4. Most pensions and retirement savings accounts use the stock market to beat inflation. Maybe it’s just me, but I am extremely bearish on the stock market for the next four decades. You’re seriously telling me we’ll make it four decades without a major war, pandemic, famine, etc; and if we do, we won’t have a basic income system in place? Unlikely to me.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
Those who do nothing and depend on the government to help them will not do better than those who at least try to take care of themselves. They will almost always do worse. Not trust the stock market, or at least not that much? Diversify - something like Total Stock plus Total Bond.
- bradfa 3y ago
  Exactly. And if we get UBI *AND* I have saved money then I’m better off than those who didn’t. Even if I only saved a little.
  - IcyWindows 3y ago
    What if there is a wealth tax that drains our retirement accounts in order to fund UBI, social security, health care, etc.? There's always the risk that the government will take tax what you have.
    - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
      Then I'll still have UBI and Social Security. And, since a wealth tax will almost certainly be less than 100%, I'll still be better off for having saved, even if not as much better off as I expected.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
at_a_remove 3y ago
I'm not doubting you, but I would love to have more evidence on that insolvency thing. I'm Gen X, and my rule of thumb is that whatever nice thing there is, I will be there just in time to watch the Boomers pull up the ladder behind them. A bit like the drinking age dropping to eighteen, then, when they had aged out of it, voting it right back up to twenty-one.
PumpkinSpice 3y ago
> 1. I’ll only be a millionaire because of inflation over my lifetime. First, statistically speaking, you might only have a couple of years between statutory retirement age and some sort of an "old-age" illness that will diminish your ability to pursue hobbies, travel, and so on. All the stuff you've been putting off for later... you might not be able to do, and you will regret that. Retirement savings will allow you to retire earlier, and they will allow you to maintain higher "velocity" after - because many of these things we're putting off do cost money to pursue. Just as importantly, though, savings buy you peace of mind. You're no longer as stressed about day-to-day challenges, like conflicts at work, an uncertain economic outlook, or a leaky roof. Plus, on a typical tech salary, you can certainly hit 1-2 million in retirement savings in today's money, and there are investment vehicles that offset inflation with relatively modest risk. > 2. Social Security is less than a decade from insolvency, People have been saying this for the past four decades. But even if it does go insolvent, do you expect government retirement benefits to suddenly become a lot more comfortable than they currently are? > 3. Saving for retirement is a luxury reserved for the folks who don’t live paycheck to paycheck. For those who do, would their savings even be enough to matter? If you live paycheck-to-paycheck, you can't save, by definition. The question is whether you need to live paycheck-to-paycheck. For most people on HN, the answer is a resounding "no." > 4. Most pensions and retirement savings accounts use the stock market to beat inflation. Maybe it’s just me, but I am extremely bearish on the stock market for the next four decades. You don't need to "beat" inflation. You just need to match it. People invest into risky stocks because they want their savings to grow faster than inflation, but you certainly don't have to. You can buy corporate or municipal bonds, you can bet on commodities, you can buy real estate, you can go for collectibles, you can buy gold bars if you want to. You can invest in a friend's business. Finally, the whole talk of "the market" is a distraction. Unless you're buying index funds, you can choose specific companies that you're not bearish on. They might not beat market returns in a good year, but if your goal is to have confidence in your choices, it's a sound plan.
- imadierich 3y ago
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AnimalMuppet 3y ago

Those who do nothing and depend on the government to help them will not do better than those who at least try to take care of themselves. They will almost always do worse. Not trust the stock market, or at least not that much? Diversify - something like Total Stock plus Total Bond.

bradfa 3y ago
Exactly. And if we get UBI *AND* I have saved money then I’m better off than those who didn’t. Even if I only saved a little.
- IcyWindows 3y ago
  What if there is a wealth tax that drains our retirement accounts in order to fund UBI, social security, health care, etc.? There's always the risk that the government will take tax what you have.
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    Then I'll still have UBI and Social Security. And, since a wealth tax will almost certainly be less than 100%, I'll still be better off for having saved, even if not as much better off as I expected.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

at_a_remove 3y ago

I'm not doubting you, but I would love to have more evidence on that insolvency thing. I'm Gen X, and my rule of thumb is that whatever nice thing there is, I will be there just in time to watch the Boomers pull up the ladder behind them. A bit like the drinking age dropping to eighteen, then, when they had aged out of it, voting it right back up to twenty-one.

PumpkinSpice 3y ago

> 1. I’ll only be a millionaire because of inflation over my lifetime. First, statistically speaking, you might only have a couple of years between statutory retirement age and some sort of an "old-age" illness that will diminish your ability to pursue hobbies, travel, and so on. All the stuff you've been putting off for later... you might not be able to do, and you will regret that. Retirement savings will allow you to retire earlier, and they will allow you to maintain higher "velocity" after - because many of these things we're putting off do cost money to pursue. Just as importantly, though, savings buy you peace of mind. You're no longer as stressed about day-to-day challenges, like conflicts at work, an uncertain economic outlook, or a leaky roof. Plus, on a typical tech salary, you can certainly hit 1-2 million in retirement savings in today's money, and there are investment vehicles that offset inflation with relatively modest risk. > 2. Social Security is less than a decade from insolvency, People have been saying this for the past four decades. But even if it does go insolvent, do you expect government retirement benefits to suddenly become a lot more comfortable than they currently are? > 3. Saving for retirement is a luxury reserved for the folks who don’t live paycheck to paycheck. For those who do, would their savings even be enough to matter? If you live paycheck-to-paycheck, you can't save, by definition. The question is whether you need to live paycheck-to-paycheck. For most people on HN, the answer is a resounding "no." > 4. Most pensions and retirement savings accounts use the stock market to beat inflation. Maybe it’s just me, but I am extremely bearish on the stock market for the next four decades. You don't need to "beat" inflation. You just need to match it. People invest into risky stocks because they want their savings to grow faster than inflation, but you certainly don't have to. You can buy corporate or municipal bonds, you can bet on commodities, you can buy real estate, you can go for collectibles, you can buy gold bars if you want to. You can invest in a friend's business. Finally, the whole talk of "the market" is a distraction. Unless you're buying index funds, you can choose specific companies that you're not bearish on. They might not beat market returns in a good year, but if your goal is to have confidence in your choices, it's a sound plan.

imadierich 3y ago
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