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Toyota cuts 2023 EV sales forecast by nearly 40%
- miguelazo 3y agoDo any of their EVs even qualify for the tax credit at this point? Doubtful. I bet that, along with having like 1 pure EV model, explains why.
- zyang 3y agoNo they don't. Dealers are pushing leases since that's the only way it would qualify. bz4x is going for model y prices with a 2015 rav4 interior. It's not going to end well.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Bud 3y agoSounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. Toyota has always leaned into hybrids and away from full-electric models. They just aren't very good at competing in the full-electric market. So it makes sense for them to issue a self-serving "forecast" and simultaneously announce that they're pushing hybrids instead.
- miguelazo 3y agoNot just hybrids— they went all in on hydrogen, which was stupid.
- Dalewyn 3y agoTo be fair here, it's not Toyota that is going all-in on hydrogen. It's Japan as a political whole that is going all-in on hydrogen.
- gnicholas 3y agoWhy wasn’t Honda similarly affected?
- klooney 3y agoThey were, their electric cars have been pretty bad- super low range (110 miles), low volume production. Their new, competitive cars are based on GM's tech and battery stack.
- gnicholas 3y agoBut they didn’t put out hydrogen-powered vehicles (at least in the US), did they?
- Dalewyn 3y agoThey have. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Clarity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Clarity >The Honda Clarity is a nameplate used by Honda on alternative fuel vehicles. It was initially used only on hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles such as the 2008 Honda FCX Clarity, but in 2017 the nameplate was expanded to include the battery-electric Honda Clarity Electric and the plug-in hybrid electric Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid, in addition to the next generation Honda Clarity Fuel Cell. Clarity production ended in August 2021 with US leases for the fuel cell variant continuing through to 2022.
- clouddrover 3y agoIn what sense did Toyota go "all in" on hydrogen? Toyota produces more ICE vehicles than any other drive train. Toyota produces more hybrids than BEVs. And more BEVs than FCEVs. The Toyota Mirai, for example, has always been a low volume vehicle. There's no sense in which Toyota went all in on it. The more simple reality is that Toyota produces many drive train types.
- idontwantthis 3y agoThey went all in as an alternative to ICE. Their BEVs are very recent. They had people arguing for more than a decade “will it be batteries or hydrogen?” without any serious effort at all to make the Mirai more than a source of confusion and discouragement.
- clouddrover 3y agoAnd how does your conspiracy theory explain the low volume production of the Mirai? Things really are more simple: Toyota's going to build cars and try to sell them. They build multiple drive trains because they can. They will build more of the ones that sell.
- idontwantthis 3y agoIt’s not necessarily a conspiracy they might have just been unserious or lazy in forcing the world to make a huge change. They sold very few of them because nobody wanted to buy them because there’s no fuel for them. If they wanted to sell them they needed to build a fuel network.
- clouddrover 3y ago> they might have just been unserious or lazy in forcing the world to make a huge change Eh, you want Toyota, a car company, to force you to do things? That's a strange perspective. > They sold very few of them Because they produced very few of them. They still don't make very many. I think we've arrived back at the beginning. You're agreeing that Toyota didn't go "all in" on hydrogen.
- idontwantthis 3y agoThey went all in on Hydrogen which is maybe just maybe not stupid but then went 0% in on supplying the hydrogen! That’s the really stupid thing which makes it clear they were never serious about it. Tesla matters because of the supercharger network. Without it they would be building super cars for environmentalist billionaires and that would be it.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- NewJazz 3y agoWow can't believe they miscalculated their sales by an amount of 15 whole cars! /s
- throwaway5959 3y agoNot sure why you’re being downvoted. The BZ4X is a terrible EV. There’s no way they made it so bad without trying.
- coffeebeqn 3y agoEven the name seems like a joke from them. Prius, Corolla, Tacoma, … bZ4X ?
- decafninja 3y agoBusy Forks
- mint2 3y agoThe wheels falling off didn’t help. I mean the wheels literally fell off and all vehicles were recalled. How can they screw up their first ev so badly unless it was intentionally sabotaged by management withholding support and resources
- gnicholas 3y agoDidn’t Rivian have a recall involving wheels falling off as well? EDIT: not sure why this is downvoted; a simple google search shows this is 100% true: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/business/rivian-recall/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/business/rivian-recall/index....
- mint2 3y agoOn rivian your referenced article states “the company has the capacity to inspect all affected vehicles and make any necessary repairs within 30 days” Toyota took like half a year or something similarly ridiculous to figure how to prevent the wheels from falling off. Like, is this the first time they’ve ever tried to build a car or something? Oh wait, rivian solved their problem faster than Toyota despite it literally being one of the first vehicles they’ve ever designed. So a new company still working out issues made Toyota look amateur.
- richardw 3y agoI guess by comparison to pure EV’s they’re in a good position in the hybrid market for anyone who needs longer range and quick gas refills. But their EV competitors are all currently moving down the experience curve and building scale and capacity. This will be harder to rejoin the party later, especially if eg Tesla and BYD stay aggressive on pricing.
- jfengel 3y agoThat's a market that isn't going to serve them as well as they imagine. Most people just genuinely don't need that "longer range and quick gas refills", very often if at all. In return, they have shorter electric range because they have to carry around a heavy engine and a more complex drive train, which requires vastly more maintenance. It's a fence-sitting position driven by inertia rather than a serious consideration of people's driving habits and the future direction of automobile infrastructure. That does not bode well.
- miragecraft 3y agoIf they’re leaning into hybrid, then why isn’t the Corolla Hatch Hybrid available in Canada?
- throwaway1777 3y agoYou realize one has nothing to do with the other right? They make a hybrid version of almost every model in the lineup. They are leaning into fucking hybrids mate.
- riku_iki 3y agoprobably market asks awd cross instead?
- angott 3y agoBecause the Corolla Hatch already sells very little. The few units they manage to sell go to a very specific crowd looking for a sporty but affordable hatch. At the Corolla price point, the hybrid versions are also meant for a crowd looking for good fuel economy. The sporty hatchback and fuel economy crowds do not overlap, because fuel-sipping hybrid engines have poor acceleration. And more generally the fuel economy crowd would prefer the sedan model, because it provides more interior room while using less gas than the hatch version.
- miragecraft 3y agoI thought the sedan and hatch gas version has the same fuel economy, and isn’t the hatch useful for hauling large items? If not a hatch, which model/car do I get for a cheap, reliable, fuel efficient car that can haul largish items?
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoA utility vehicle like a Nissan cube or a honda element?
- miragecraft 3y ago
- webprofusion 3y agoThey don't want to have to make EVs, they've said so repeatedly for years (mixed with the occasional "We know how to make the best EVs and we'll release them a few years from now! Honest!". Meanwhile they're being leapfrogged. Unless you work for Toyota or you have shares in them, it doesn't really matter.
- azinman2 3y agoExcept aren’t they the ones promising solid state batteries with insane range?
- Sparkyte 3y agofuture isn't solid state its ultracheap sodium ion once we figure out how to produce them properly
- azinman2 3y agoWhat makes you say that other than price and material availability? According to Wikipedia the energy density is lower, and it also seems to have less cycles. It looks like the only thing that’s better is a hypothetical price point and the elements required.
- adgjlsfhk1 3y agoprice and materials are what matter if you want to build a billion EVs
- Incipient 3y agoAnd recycling/disposal.
- Sparkyte 3y agoThere is a few benefits besides cost. The battery can handle 100,000 cycles, lithium ion 10,000 cycles. Can handle being dry and over charged (lithium can not). Can also handle wider range of temperatures. Only difference is the capacity which is only about 20% smaller but the resources needed to make sodium ion is about 60% cost reduction per equal part capacity. Only if we can fix the yield problem right now.
- kortilla 3y agoEasy to go from 10 to 6 now that the employee discount is gone.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- devy 3y agoToyota and Japanese auto manufacturers in general (except Nissan, which is crossed owned by French automaker Renault S.A.) are legging behind in EV development either because they chose the Hydrogen fuel cell route when investing R&D money in the past few decades, probably 10s of billions USD by now. It was a catastrophic strategic mistake. Because of heavy bet on non-EV and the decades of R&D on a dead-end on fuel cell technologies, they have always been wishy-washy about EV investments and productions. The further they delayed their investment in EV technology, the more they are lagging behind in battery tech and EV drivetrain and infotainment systems, as evidently as bZ4X etc. But the report accurately pointed out the main reason for sales decline is due to the fierce competition in Chinese market where Chinese domestic EV brands are rising rapidly - just as how it was developed for the smartphone in the early 2010s. The iteration speed of product development and governmental support in EV transportation shift drives the huge recent sales success in Chinese EV brands like BYD.
- Sparkyte 3y agohybrid hydrogen electric car
- Beijinger 3y ago" It was a catastrophic strategic mistake. Because of heavy bet on non-EV and the decades of R&D on a dead-end on fuel cell technologies" I don't think the race is over now and I would not call it a dead end. Just out of my head, at least Mercedes still invests heavily in fuel cells for trucks: https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/-record-run-daimler-s-mercedes-benz-green-hydrogen-truck-drives-over-1-000km-on-a-single-tank/2-1-1525344 https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/-record-run-daimle... Also Bosch: https://www.bosch-mobility.com/en/mobility-topics/fuel-cell-electric-drive/ https://www.bosch-mobility.com/en/mobility-topics/fuel-cell-... I think the rumors of the death of the fuel cell are highly exaggerated.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoToyota is moving its hydrogen investments over to commercial heavy trucks as well.
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- ars 3y agoAs a potential consumer of a replacement vehicle I agree with this - I don't want an EV right now, I want a hybrid - all the advantages: low pollution local driving, higher efficiency due to regenerative braking, plug it in no need to fill up - none of the drawbacks: unlimited range for when I go on a long trip (I'm unwilling to wait more than 10 minutes to recharge/refuel. And yes I'm aware of eating and bathrooms.)
- speedgoose 3y agoIncredible that may still sell 123 000 of their disappointing electric vehicles after their marketing department did shit so much on electric vehicles for years. I feel a bit sorry for the few uninformed elderly people who bought a BZ4X without reading anything about it, trusting their favourite brand.
- shermozle 3y agoThey don't even sell Plugin Hybrids in Australia. They used to have a single Lexus SKU but they killed it. It's funny cos if you look back at Japanese car manufacturing's history, in the 1960s and 1970s their cars were literally motorbikes with panels wrapped around. The Chinese never even really had that janky stage and completely leapfrogged over them.
- Incipient 3y ago>Chinese never even really had that janky stage and completely leapfrogged over them. The first iteration of the great wall we had here was pretty damn janky. Not "motorbike with a shell" janky, but the Chinese had the rest of the world to get designs from.
- lgleason 3y agoI can see both sides to this argument (saying this as someone who owns property in multiple countries and has an electric (Tesla Model 3LR), Plug in Hybrid(Chevy Volt 2nd gen) and ICE cars (A 20 year old Volvo S60 and 22 year old Audi TT)). Toyota's competitive advantage has always been to use slightly older perfected technology that will last a long time instead of cutting edge technology with more problems etc. That is why they are known to be reliable cars with high resale values. In the US it mostly is a decent decision to buy electric (and I love my Tesla and Volt) but there are some caveats. 1. The insurance tends to be a bit more expensive. 2. You need to have a place with charging infrastructure (like your own home or an apartment etc. that has free charging). 3. Paid chargers often have similar costs to buying gas for ICE vehicles. 4. Battery degradation is a thing. As someone who lives in the SouthEast and likes to keep cars for 10-15+ years that becomes an issue with cars like the Volt where the only option that makes economic sense when the battery dies is to try to find a refurb from another vehicle if the car is out of warranty. The Tesla is not as likely to have that issue because a lot more were produced, but if other offerings have after sales support similar to the volt because of lower than expected sales volumes that becomes a perception issue down the road unless you want to just purchase a car, take a big depreciation hit and then trade it in a few years. 5. depreciation see #4. 6. Sales are currently slowing down with inventory piling up even with federal subsidies right now. Imagine how much lower it would be without them. 7. To add more range to a car like the Tesla you need to add more batteries which adds a lot of weight to the car (they have already gone after most the low hanging fruit with motor efficiency and vehicle wind drag). Because of the weight it goes through tires a lot quicker. (30K miles vs 60K average for tires) With the Tesla, it is practical for my needs, but I bought it more so because it is fun to drive, I like the tech etc.. Other countries, outside of Europe, China and other developed nations are a mixed bag. For example in Costa Rica, where I have a property, even with the government tax discounts it doesn't make any sense because electric is really expensive there and it is difficult to get parts is something goes wrong. Also, if you want a car that you are not going to drive a lot of miles in every year there is also the issue of time degrading your battery which is going to be a lot more expensive and difficult to replace there. South Africa has so many current problems with their electric grid that they heavily tax BEV's instead of offering tax breaks like other countries. Ironically, having solar panels and batteries for a house makes more sense there. ....and guess which car brand is has one of the higher theft rates because of parts and resale around the world....Toyota. They also have a very large market share in a large percentage of the world as a top producer. While I'm not sure that hydrogen will gain traction, because of the slow market adoption it will not surprise me if the legislation around the world to ban ICE sales ends up being relaxed before it takes effect and the transition happens much more slowly.