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The most likely outcome of this exercise in pumping the brakes is the monopolization of high-end AI by a small number of very rich or powerful people. They will
by api 3y ago
The most likely outcome of this exercise in pumping the brakes is the monopolization of high-end AI by a small number of very rich or powerful people. They will then be able to leverage it as an intelligence amplifier for themselves while renting out access to inferior versions of its capabilities to the rest of humanity and becoming even more extraordinarily wealthy.
If AI really is going to take off as much as some suspect it will, then you need to wrap your head around the sheer magnitude of the power grab we could be witnessing here.
The most plausible of the "foom" scenarios is one in which a tiny group of humans leverage superintelligence to become living gods. I consider "foom" very speculative, but this version is plausible because we already know humans will act like that while AI so far has no self-awareness or independence to speak of.
I don't think most of the actual scientists concerned about AI want that to happen, but that's what will happen in a regulatory regime. It is always okay for the right people to do whatever they want. Regulations will apply to the poors and the politically unconnected. AI will continue to advance. It will just be monopolized. If some kind of "foom" scenario is possible, it will still happen and will be able to start operating from a place of incredible privilege it inherits from the privileged people who created it.
There is zero chance of an actual "stop."
- tivert 3y ago> The most plausible of the "foom" scenarios is one in which a tiny group of humans leverage superintelligence to become living gods. I consider "foom" very speculative, but this version is plausible because we already know humans will act like that while AI so far has no self-awareness or independence to speak of. One of my hopes is that "superintelligence" turns out to be an impossible geekish fantasy. It seems plausible, because the most intelligent people are frequently not actually very successful. But if it is possible, I think a full-scale nuclear war might be a preferable outcome to living with such "living gods."
- bbor 3y agoI do wonder how long this bias towards the status quo will survive human history. This is the first big shakeup (what if we’re not the smartest beings?), and I think the next is prolly gonna be long lives (what will the shape of my life be?). From there it’s full on sci-fi speculation, but I definitely am putting money that humans will incrementally trade comfort and progress for… I guess existential stability.