3 ms·

> I dont get why americans are scared of us: we're just as scared of them. It's not going well here. Because your government keep threatening to start a war in

> I dont get why americans are scared of us: we're just as scared of them. It's not going well here. Because your government keep threatening to start a war in the Pacific over Taiwan and no one is taking those threats lightly.

sho 3y ago
While it's important to respond to these threats with a credible show of deterrence, realistically speaking not many people think China can or will even try to take Taiwan anytime soon, if ever. Invasion by sea was hard even before we had missiles, satellites, and radar - it now appears almost impossible and has not been attempted at scale since WWII. Never say never I suppose, but I don't personally believe China will ever try to invade Taiwan in the traditional sense, they're just not that stupid. Of far greater concern is their increasing belligerence in their "sphere of influence" including the south china sea and surrounding island chains.
- jiggawatts 3y ago
  The problem is that everyone was saying the same sort of thing about Russia and Ukraine right up until the first tanks started to roll over the border.
  - ChatGTP 3y ago
    I was going to say the same thing. It seems missiles don’t solve all the things else there would be an “invasion” on going for 600+ days. I guess war is harder than Internet comments.
  - sho 3y ago
    I know the situations look superficially similar - big state rattling its sabres at smaller state, then actually going through with it - but when you dig deeper, they're not really comparable. There's more than 100km of sea between Taiwan and China. Not China (nor anyone else) has anything close to the blue water amphibious assault fleet it would take for an effective invasion force to cross it. It would take multiple years to build such a fleet, impossible to hide, and while they built it Taiwan and her allies would assemble the world's largest anti-shipping missile arsenal. During the hours it would take to sail across, every single one of those huge, slow-moving, landing ships filled with thousands of men and megatons of materiél would be targeted with dozens, maybe hundreds, of missiles apiece. I doubt a single ship would make it even halfway. Or forget amphibious assault, say China tries to go airborne. An even longer period unmistakably building an unprecedented heavy cargo aircraft fleet. An even longer period for Taiwan and her allies to build her already impressive air defences into an impregnable shield. Again, not a single aircraft makes it even over Taiwan's territorial waters. In fact, once war is declared and it's game on, it's a valid question if any of these large, unstealthy, slow cargo aircraft even survive long enough to be shot down over water. The Russian experience has indeed been eye-opening, but not in the direction you assumed. Developments in missile technology have totally changed the game. Even today, the vastly superior Russian air force cannot fly over ukrainian territory. The Black Sea Fleet has been driven away - and Ukraine does not even have a navy! And even given their massive advantages in size and military strength, and the 100x easier task of invading and resupplying over land, it's far from clear that Russia will prevail. No, you can't really compare the two. Russia could always have invaded any of their neighbours if they decided to. China literally can't invade Taiwan, not if you assume even the most basic preparation and competence of herself and her allies. The best they could do is perhaps a blockade, and hope for capitulation. There are pretty much no options for a traditional invasion that do not, with rather high confidence, lead to the fastest, most deadly, most expensive, and most total military defeat in history. All of this in my own non-professional opinion of course, but I'm not completely uneducated on the topic. There's more - far more - information laying things out much better than I ever could, I encourage anyone overly concerned about an imminent conventional war over Taiwan to seek it out.
wddkcs 3y ago
Even if they had no designs on Taiwan, China would still be in U.S. crosshairs.
- ianai 3y ago
  Nope. The US gave China most favored nation status and free trade for 40 something years. Instead of pushing China away, the US locked arms with them and reintroduced them to the world economy on favorable terms. Then ignored decades of malfeasance by China. (Exchange rate fixing by Chinas central bank. Unfair trade practices moving production from the US to China. And now, propaganda on US soil.) The crosshairs are up because China has made threats and become a threat to world peace. Edit-If I could send one message to China it'd be this: If you feel so threatened by the US and extension the West, then focus on fixing your own internal problems. “Just walk away.” Stop saber rallying towards war. You can already purchase all the resources you could ever need or want over the global markets. For example, you just built up enough residential housing and areas to house all of your citizens. The globe would surely continue that trade even today if you just worked along as an economic superpower. If you're confused what will make your citizens happy, ask them. The world isn’t to blame for it’s existence.
  - wddkcs 3y ago
    Yes, 'just walk away' from international policy and leave the United States to control global affairs, what a totally reasonable position for China, one of the most populous and powerful nations on earth. The United States turns the weak into allies, and it's allies into enemies. We gave Russia $180 billion in today's currency after WWII. After the collapse of the USSR, the US was the one to welcome Russia into the World bank and IMF. After 2001, Russia was widely considered our closest strategic partner in the war on terror. [1] Now our reckless expansion of NATO has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russians. We practically created the Taliban and ISIS, or at least gave them the tools and circumstance to be lethally effective. We created the circumstance for the Iranian revolution, the Cuban revolution, countless others that have hurt us since. Of course we embraced China, we're a python looking to smother them. https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm

sho 3y ago

While it's important to respond to these threats with a credible show of deterrence, realistically speaking not many people think China can or will even try to take Taiwan anytime soon, if ever. Invasion by sea was hard even before we had missiles, satellites, and radar - it now appears almost impossible and has not been attempted at scale since WWII. Never say never I suppose, but I don't personally believe China will ever try to invade Taiwan in the traditional sense, they're just not that stupid. Of far greater concern is their increasing belligerence in their "sphere of influence" including the south china sea and surrounding island chains.

jiggawatts 3y ago
The problem is that everyone was saying the same sort of thing about Russia and Ukraine right up until the first tanks started to roll over the border.
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  I was going to say the same thing. It seems missiles don’t solve all the things else there would be an “invasion” on going for 600+ days. I guess war is harder than Internet comments.
- sho 3y ago
  I know the situations look superficially similar - big state rattling its sabres at smaller state, then actually going through with it - but when you dig deeper, they're not really comparable. There's more than 100km of sea between Taiwan and China. Not China (nor anyone else) has anything close to the blue water amphibious assault fleet it would take for an effective invasion force to cross it. It would take multiple years to build such a fleet, impossible to hide, and while they built it Taiwan and her allies would assemble the world's largest anti-shipping missile arsenal. During the hours it would take to sail across, every single one of those huge, slow-moving, landing ships filled with thousands of men and megatons of materiél would be targeted with dozens, maybe hundreds, of missiles apiece. I doubt a single ship would make it even halfway. Or forget amphibious assault, say China tries to go airborne. An even longer period unmistakably building an unprecedented heavy cargo aircraft fleet. An even longer period for Taiwan and her allies to build her already impressive air defences into an impregnable shield. Again, not a single aircraft makes it even over Taiwan's territorial waters. In fact, once war is declared and it's game on, it's a valid question if any of these large, unstealthy, slow cargo aircraft even survive long enough to be shot down over water. The Russian experience has indeed been eye-opening, but not in the direction you assumed. Developments in missile technology have totally changed the game. Even today, the vastly superior Russian air force cannot fly over ukrainian territory. The Black Sea Fleet has been driven away - and Ukraine does not even have a navy! And even given their massive advantages in size and military strength, and the 100x easier task of invading and resupplying over land, it's far from clear that Russia will prevail. No, you can't really compare the two. Russia could always have invaded any of their neighbours if they decided to. China literally can't invade Taiwan, not if you assume even the most basic preparation and competence of herself and her allies. The best they could do is perhaps a blockade, and hope for capitulation. There are pretty much no options for a traditional invasion that do not, with rather high confidence, lead to the fastest, most deadly, most expensive, and most total military defeat in history. All of this in my own non-professional opinion of course, but I'm not completely uneducated on the topic. There's more - far more - information laying things out much better than I ever could, I encourage anyone overly concerned about an imminent conventional war over Taiwan to seek it out.

wddkcs 3y ago

Even if they had no designs on Taiwan, China would still be in U.S. crosshairs.

ianai 3y ago
Nope. The US gave China most favored nation status and free trade for 40 something years. Instead of pushing China away, the US locked arms with them and reintroduced them to the world economy on favorable terms. Then ignored decades of malfeasance by China. (Exchange rate fixing by Chinas central bank. Unfair trade practices moving production from the US to China. And now, propaganda on US soil.) The crosshairs are up because China has made threats and become a threat to world peace. Edit-If I could send one message to China it'd be this: If you feel so threatened by the US and extension the West, then focus on fixing your own internal problems. “Just walk away.” Stop saber rallying towards war. You can already purchase all the resources you could ever need or want over the global markets. For example, you just built up enough residential housing and areas to house all of your citizens. The globe would surely continue that trade even today if you just worked along as an economic superpower. If you're confused what will make your citizens happy, ask them. The world isn’t to blame for it’s existence.
- wddkcs 3y ago
  Yes, 'just walk away' from international policy and leave the United States to control global affairs, what a totally reasonable position for China, one of the most populous and powerful nations on earth. The United States turns the weak into allies, and it's allies into enemies. We gave Russia $180 billion in today's currency after WWII. After the collapse of the USSR, the US was the one to welcome Russia into the World bank and IMF. After 2001, Russia was widely considered our closest strategic partner in the war on terror. [1] Now our reckless expansion of NATO has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russians. We practically created the Taliban and ISIS, or at least gave them the tools and circumstance to be lethally effective. We created the circumstance for the Iranian revolution, the Cuban revolution, countless others that have hurt us since. Of course we embraced China, we're a python looking to smother them. https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm