4 ms·

> By the way: thank you for the respectful discussion on this extremely sensitive subject. Given some of the incredible garbage in this thread it is a welcome r

by edanm 3y ago

> By the way: thank you for the respectful discussion on this extremely sensitive subject. Given some of the incredible garbage in this thread it is a welcome relief. Likewise! > I think the answer to that is to first figure out what kind of vision people have a for a long term view of what that part of the world will look like. I think the only viable option is a two or possibly three state solution. For obvious reasons (obvious to Israelis at least), Israel must remain a majority-Jewish state, so a one-state solution is simply impossible. That means a two state solution where the Palestinians have their own state. But how to get there from here is the problem. There have been many attempts at peace, including several peace deals that the Palestinians walked away from. The common line is that Israel has agreed to every compromise peace deal that's ever been put forward, which I'm sure isn't accurate, but is largely true; I fully believe that if the Palestinians had a decent leadership that would try to negotiate with Israel today and offer a deal, Israel would accept it. But as long as the Palestinians insist on things that are unrealistic - with Hamas obviously being the worst example, insisting that Israel stop existing! - as long as that's the demand, I just don't see how we get to a peace deal. And obviously, Israeli leadership has been somewhat between apathetic to the Palestinians and full-on discouraging any kind of deal, so it's not like the Israeli government are exactly saints on this topic. The only possible hope I have is that the current war is so bad, it forces Israel to actually wipe out Hamas, but then help get a more decent leadership on the Palestinian side that will actually help get to peace. I'm very doubtful that will happen, because I don't really trust either side to acutally pursue peace.

jacquesm 3y ago
I worry that any serious attempt to get rid of Hamas will create so much collateral damage and/or will cause many people that are currently 'fence sitters' to switch to the Hamas side because of optics will cause the conflict to worsen rather than to move towards a solution. It's rare that you can get a conflict fought between insurgents and a professional army to look acceptable from the outside world looking at it because of the inequality in capacity and force. That coupled with the inevitable asymmetry between the losses is going to cause more problems than it solves. Note that the IRA wasn't 'wiped out' (in spite of many years of trying to do just that, but less visibly aggressive), they simply ran out of support and that was that. Something like that might work. But Israel would have to commit to some kind of compromise, for instance to halt any kind of settlement program, hand back land taken by settlers and to vow to stick to some kind of well defined border. And that's the bit that I don't see happening and every time someone gets murdered it will simply escalate right back to where we are today only then with more chance of really spiraling out of control. Hardliners thrive on conflict, and as long as - on either side - hardliners are major players the conflict will be prolonged and possibly expanded. And each side has the capability to do something about their hardliners. edit: this is the sort of thing that will come back to haunt Netanyahu no matter how the current fight unfolds: https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up... You don't play 'divide and conquer' with what is effectively a terrorist organization just because you think that you've got them bottled up and they serve your goals of destabilizing any attempt at normalization and/or paths that would force you to compromise. The cynical side of me wonders if the hardliners and the right wingers aren't still quietly (privately) cheering on Hamas just so they can strike back that much harder and impose more restrictions on Gaza and possibly the West bank because that is what they really have set their sights on and the occupants of those areas are seen as best removed in some way or other.
- edanm 3y ago
  > I worry that any serious attempt to get rid of Hamas will create so much collateral damage and/or will cause many people that are currently 'fence sitters' to switch to the Hamas side because of optics will cause the conflict to worsen rather than to move towards a solution. I worry about that too. At least in terms of the world opinion. In terms of Gazans, I don't think it matters much - Hamas is effectively a dictatorship that's ruling Gaza. I have no idea if we can actually take out Hamas. I don't know if we can do it in terms of an "acceptable" amount of collateral damage, or an "acceptable" amount of Israeli soldiers killed. Acceptable at least to the Israeli public. A few months into this, if we have dozens/hundreds of dead soldiers (and dead Palestinians, which some people do care about), will the public continue supporting something open-ended? I don't know. Still, I honestly don't see an alternative. We've had, what, 10 ceasefires in the 20 years they've been in power and they've used them to restock and re-attack. I don't see much of a choice for Israel to actually stay safe that doesn't involve destroying Hamas. > You don't play 'divide and conquer' with what is effectively a terrorist organization just because you think that you've got them bottled up and they serve your goals of destabilizing any attempt at normalization and/or paths that would force you to compromise. That's true, though not sure what alternative Bibi had. There's lots of criticism from within Israel about Bibi effectively helping prop up Hamas, but like, the alternative that most people suggest is that Israel should've gone harder after them in the past, not accepted ceasefires, not compromised on allowing in aid and resources, etc. Not sure what was the other alternative. > The cynical side of me wonders if the hardliners and the right wingers aren't still quietly (privately) cheering on Hamas just so they can strike back that much harder and impose more restrictions on Gaza and possibly the West bank because that is what they really have set their sights on and the occupants of those areas are seen as best removed in some way or other. Some right-wingers are already using this situation to do what they want. E.g. lots of settlers are doing horrific things, like threatening close-by Arab villages, under I guess the assumption that no one will stop them right now. I hope they're wrong. I fear they're not, and the government will just ignore it (if not actively encourage it, at least parts of the government).
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    It's very sad, and extremely frustrating all of this. Just speaking for myself, obviously: if it were me living with my family in Israel I'd move out. Simply because too many deeds are being done for which I would not want to be fractionally responsible, besides the safety issues. At scale that would result in Israel disappearing but this isn't happening at all, instead the population of Israel is growing and quite rapidly so. As a result there will be ever more pressure to continue to expand and that sets the stage for an interminable confrontation, unless all parties are willing to significantly compromise on their current positions. But religion and various non-public agendas seem to stop any such compromise from happening.

by edanm 3y ago

jacquesm 3y ago

I worry that any serious attempt to get rid of Hamas will create so much collateral damage and/or will cause many people that are currently 'fence sitters' to switch to the Hamas side because of optics will cause the conflict to worsen rather than to move towards a solution. It's rare that you can get a conflict fought between insurgents and a professional army to look acceptable from the outside world looking at it because of the inequality in capacity and force. That coupled with the inevitable asymmetry between the losses is going to cause more problems than it solves. Note that the IRA wasn't 'wiped out' (in spite of many years of trying to do just that, but less visibly aggressive), they simply ran out of support and that was that. Something like that might work. But Israel would have to commit to some kind of compromise, for instance to halt any kind of settlement program, hand back land taken by settlers and to vow to stick to some kind of well defined border. And that's the bit that I don't see happening and every time someone gets murdered it will simply escalate right back to where we are today only then with more chance of really spiraling out of control. Hardliners thrive on conflict, and as long as - on either side - hardliners are major players the conflict will be prolonged and possibly expanded. And each side has the capability to do something about their hardliners. edit: this is the sort of thing that will come back to haunt Netanyahu no matter how the current fight unfolds: https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up... You don't play 'divide and conquer' with what is effectively a terrorist organization just because you think that you've got them bottled up and they serve your goals of destabilizing any attempt at normalization and/or paths that would force you to compromise. The cynical side of me wonders if the hardliners and the right wingers aren't still quietly (privately) cheering on Hamas just so they can strike back that much harder and impose more restrictions on Gaza and possibly the West bank because that is what they really have set their sights on and the occupants of those areas are seen as best removed in some way or other.

edanm 3y ago
> I worry that any serious attempt to get rid of Hamas will create so much collateral damage and/or will cause many people that are currently 'fence sitters' to switch to the Hamas side because of optics will cause the conflict to worsen rather than to move towards a solution. I worry about that too. At least in terms of the world opinion. In terms of Gazans, I don't think it matters much - Hamas is effectively a dictatorship that's ruling Gaza. I have no idea if we can actually take out Hamas. I don't know if we can do it in terms of an "acceptable" amount of collateral damage, or an "acceptable" amount of Israeli soldiers killed. Acceptable at least to the Israeli public. A few months into this, if we have dozens/hundreds of dead soldiers (and dead Palestinians, which some people do care about), will the public continue supporting something open-ended? I don't know. Still, I honestly don't see an alternative. We've had, what, 10 ceasefires in the 20 years they've been in power and they've used them to restock and re-attack. I don't see much of a choice for Israel to actually stay safe that doesn't involve destroying Hamas. > You don't play 'divide and conquer' with what is effectively a terrorist organization just because you think that you've got them bottled up and they serve your goals of destabilizing any attempt at normalization and/or paths that would force you to compromise. That's true, though not sure what alternative Bibi had. There's lots of criticism from within Israel about Bibi effectively helping prop up Hamas, but like, the alternative that most people suggest is that Israel should've gone harder after them in the past, not accepted ceasefires, not compromised on allowing in aid and resources, etc. Not sure what was the other alternative. > The cynical side of me wonders if the hardliners and the right wingers aren't still quietly (privately) cheering on Hamas just so they can strike back that much harder and impose more restrictions on Gaza and possibly the West bank because that is what they really have set their sights on and the occupants of those areas are seen as best removed in some way or other. Some right-wingers are already using this situation to do what they want. E.g. lots of settlers are doing horrific things, like threatening close-by Arab villages, under I guess the assumption that no one will stop them right now. I hope they're wrong. I fear they're not, and the government will just ignore it (if not actively encourage it, at least parts of the government).
- jacquesm 3y ago
  It's very sad, and extremely frustrating all of this. Just speaking for myself, obviously: if it were me living with my family in Israel I'd move out. Simply because too many deeds are being done for which I would not want to be fractionally responsible, besides the safety issues. At scale that would result in Israel disappearing but this isn't happening at all, instead the population of Israel is growing and quite rapidly so. As a result there will be ever more pressure to continue to expand and that sets the stage for an interminable confrontation, unless all parties are willing to significantly compromise on their current positions. But religion and various non-public agendas seem to stop any such compromise from happening.