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It's estimated that Hamas has between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers(1), which is about 6% to 8% of Gaza's entire adult male population. There's no way of getting a
by petertodd 3y ago
It's estimated that Hamas has between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers(1), which is about 6% to 8% of Gaza's entire adult male population. There's no way of getting around it: if Israel finishes the job of eradicating Hamas, a large percentage of the Gazan population will be killed or captured, purely because so many of them are actively involved in Hamas.
Anyway, if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. In Germany about 5 million German soldiers were killed, almost as many as the 6 million Jews they slaughtered. At the time that was a double digit percentage of the entire male population. But Germany rebuilt and is now a thriving country.
1) https://www.axios.com/2023/10/21/palestine-hamas-military-power https://www.axios.com/2023/10/21/palestine-hamas-military-po...
- bhouston 3y agopetertodd wrote: > Anyway, if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. That is genocidal language where you are holding civilians accountable. The Gazan population does not favor Hamas according to polling prior to October 7th: https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/1718007927556964511 https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/171800792755696451... Hamas was also boosted by Netanyahu in part to prevent a two-state solution and diminish moderate Palestinian leadership: https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up...
- petertodd 3y agoHamas has an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers(1). That's about 6% to 8% of the entire adult Gazan male population. It's impossible to have that many soldiers without widespread support. Maybe not a majority. But certainly a significant minority. Like it or not, a significant percentage of the adult Gazan population are responsible for Hamas because they're actively fighting for Hamas or directly supporting them. Pointing out that those people are accountable, and can choose a different future, is not genocidal language. It's stating the facts of the situation. Germany also faced the same choice after WW2. They chose to eradicate Nazism, which is a big part of why Germany is the successful country it is today. 1) https://www.axios.com/2023/10/21/palestine-hamas-military-power https://www.axios.com/2023/10/21/palestine-hamas-military-po...
- jeromegv 3y agoIt’s a dictatorial regime. Just like Iran. The amount of soldiers as % of population is totally irrelevant when people are forced into it. You are putting the blame of the situation on the civilians. That is the problem. Do you think they chose to live in such a place? Did you read on how Hamas came into power and who helped them?
- bhouston 3y ago> It's impossible to have that many soldiers without widespread support. Maybe not a majority. But certainly a significant minority. Israel wanted Hamas to rule Gaza though and supported it financially while working against moderate Palestinians: > Netanyahu said: “Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas, ... This is part of our strategy — to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.” https://www.vox.com/23910085/netanyahu-israel-right-hamas-gaza-war-history https://www.vox.com/23910085/netanyahu-israel-right-hamas-ga... This means that this attacks of Hamas by Israel is unlikely to lead to a better situation post war, because Netanyahu's position is to always have a reason why the Palestinians should not have freedom. It is more likely that things just get worse for the Palestinians after this war.
- petertodd 3y ago[flagged]
- bhouston 3y agoPeter Todd wrote: > That does not change the fact that Hamas does have widespread support! I already linked you this survey that showed that Hamas doesn't have widespread support: https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/1718007927556964511 https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/171800792755696451... > If Israel did nothing other than kill the ~40,000 Hamas soldiers, along with destroying military and economic infrastructure, they'll easily buy themselves another 10 years of relative safety. At which point they can do it all over again. Oh, okay. You are fine with just repeatedly bombing a captive population. It takes all kinds I guess.
- nwiswell 3y ago> That is genocidal language where you are holding civilians accountable. The entire situation is deeply regrettable and it's hard to find any heroes here, but I feel like we forget our own history so easily. The United States, within living memory, conducted a firebombing campaign of Dresden, which had limited military value, killing over 25,000. We interned over 100,000 of our own citizens of Japanese ancestry. We conducted a firebombing campaign of Tokyo, killing around 100,000 civilians and leaving over a million homeless. And of course we dropped two atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing mostly civilians and causing deep scarring both psychological and physiological for the survivors. The reality is that these rules of war are more like guidelines. There is no one to enforce them if you win. When a nation feels existentially threatened, the gloves tend to come off. I don't seek to excuse anything, what is happening is a tragedy and as a matter of public policy there needs to be more diplomatic costs associated with unnecessary loss of civilian life. But there are not many countries that truly occupy a moral high ground in this regard.
- logicchains 3y ago>The United States, within living memory, conducted a firebombing campaign of Dresden, which had limited military value, killing over 25,000. We interned over 100,000 of our own citizens of Japanese ancestry. We conducted a firebombing campaign of Tokyo, killing around 100,000 civilians and leaving over a million homeless. The United States was the most powerful country by far at the time. Israel is tiny in comparison; it can't afford to just disregard public opinion and make enemies with all its neighbours, because the US won't be able to protect it forever.
- nwiswell 3y ago> and make enemies with all its neighbours too late. Israel exists because it won the 1967 war, when many of its neighbors simultaneously tried to invade.
- DoreenMichele 3y ago[flagged]
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- jacquesm 3y ago> if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. What future would that be? The whole reason this conflict keeps going is because of faulty reasoning like this. Gazan citizens do not have a say in much of anything, they're either combatants, captives or hostages depending on what your perspective from outside Gaza is.
- petertodd 3y ago> What future would that be? A future where they stop killing Israeli's and slowly build up the trust to restore normal relations and trade. Gaza was given the chance when Israel decoccupied Gaza in 2005. They decided to vote in Hamas in a democratic election instead. > Gazan citizens do not have a say in much of anything, they're either combatants, captives or hostages depending on what your perspective from outside Gaza is. As I have said elsewhere, about 6% to 8% of the entire adult male population are Hamas soldiers. Hamas is a significant percentage of the entire population. Of course they can choose a different path. It's notable that Hamas doesn't even bother to censor internet access in Gaza, beyond porn. They don't need to. They have enough support without internet censorship.
- enterprise_cog 3y agoWhat if Israel stopped killing Palestinians and normalized relations with Gaza? Israel could choose a different path.
- ovao 3y agoWould you argue that the Hamas attack against Israeli non-military citizens on October 7th was an attempt by Palestinians to normalize relations?
- jacquesm 3y agoWould it be asking too much for you to argue in good faith? That would stop the discussion from derailing. If you can't then maybe don't comment at all?
- 3c6bYDXLMj 3y agoYou’re at best conflating “soldiers” with “soldiers and civilians” in your comment, and at worst implying that this atrocities that affect far more than 8% of one demographic of Gaza’s population is justified collateral damage. That’s completely ignoring the other completely faulty aspects of your comparison, e.g. which populations are being displaced?
- ipaddr 3y ago[flagged]
- bhouston 3y agoipaddr wrote: > Those who support Hamas aren't innocent. That is the language of genocide.
- nec4b 3y agoWhy? Do you believe those that supported Nazis were not responsible for atrocities of Nazism?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- megous 3y agoOf course they were. That's why Soviets raped so many wifes of Nazis (and non-nazis). It's called justice. /s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_during_the_occupation_of_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_during_the_occupation_of_... Seriously, why are you defending violence against women? Or did you not read the parent post in its entirety?
- nec4b 3y agoI had Nuremberg trials in mind. I don't like what you imagine as justice though.
- culi 3y agoThe percentage of civilian deaths of Palestinian casualties to Israel is around 70%. Their goal isn't really to target soldiers > It's estimated that Hamas has between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers(1) This article does not provide a source for that figure but it's definitely on the high end. The number of members of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades (Hamas' armed wing) has been estimated anywhere from 15-40k.
- spixy 3y agocorrelation != causation their goal can be to target soldiers, and at the same time they kill civilians (because they are near soldiers which are being attacked)
- culi 3y ago70%... Are you seriously defending that? I get your points but that's an unheard of figure. There's absolutely no way a state can be that careless without being to the point of violating the Geneva convention Israel's illegal settlements have a history of state-sponsored pograms and brutal violence against Palestinians in both Gaza and West Bank
- FireBeyond 3y ago> Anyway, if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. Mistakes? To be clear, before I continue further: Hamas is a terrorist organization. Hamas also has a lot of support within Palestine. Now then, scenario 1) how, realistically, do you propose that the regular non-Hamas supporting Palestinian works to eradicate Hamas? Hamas have arms. (Let's not also forget how hard right Israeli leaders also supported Hamas, because a moderate Palestine is not really a true goal of theirs) Israel makes sure that Palestinians do not get access to weapons in general (i.e. Hamas obtains them by smuggling), 2) how do you prevent legions of new Hamas supporters being 'born' every day? By 2, I mean, if you as a child grow up in the Gaza strip, regularly watching Merkava Israeli tanks cruising up and down your streets, often accompanied by bulldozers demolishing the homes of your friends, how are you likely to react? Perhaps you pick up a rock and throw it at the tank. Oops. The IDF has on many occasions responded to children, throwing stones and rocks at main battle tanks, with live ammunition. Good way to foster resentment, that. And maybe you don't support Hamas yet, but you hear of another rocket attack. The Iron Dome takes care of it, but Israel doesn't care - they turn off electricity to the entire strip for a few days in punishment. Not just your home, but your school, your hospital. Or they turn off the internet. Or phone. A few times, they even turn off fresh water. Maybe now you start thinking you don't agree with Hamas' methods, but they're fighting for your right to survive, something the Israelis don't seem to care overly about, given their attitude to collateral damage. Any other country on the planet responds like this, these things are considered war crimes. But when it is Israel? Not so much. Edited to update reference to the tank type per reply.
- mcpackieh 3y agoFYI, most of what you say is true but the IDF uses the domestic Merkava, not Abrams. They have a similar "modern western MBT" aesthetic, but they're not related.
- FireBeyond 3y agoThank you, I updated it.
- OfSanguineFire 3y ago
- anonu 3y agoAnd then what? Is Hamas a wart you can simply excise? And if you do, will you just be galvanizing the next generation of fighters? If so many are part of the population, it would seem so...
- spixy 3y agoYou are right, Hamas cannot be excised as we see in Afganistan. Only way for Gazans will be to assimilate to israeli/western values I guess (if they want to have a proper life)
- philistine 3y agoI believe the Israeli goal is shockingly quaint: get the government in Gaza, who is Hamas, to surrender unconditionally. Attack until the leadership of the movement is completely demoralized and gives up. Mind you I 100% disagree that it is possible. Israel is looking at a long occupation.
- jacquesm 3y agoThere are other options that are even more shockingly quaint. Effectively Gaza is being strangled, no water, no power, no aid. This can't last without mass casualties and if and when that happens the only effect it will have is to swell the ranks of Hamas even further, perpetuating the conflict.
- petertodd 3y ago"shockingly quaint" That's basically what happened to WW2 Germany. The country was crushed to the point where they unconditionally surrendered, killing 5 million German soldiers in the process. Nazism is pretty much dead in Germany. So the approach did in fact work, and quite possibly would have worked even without the Marshal plan.
- jacquesm 3y ago> Nazism is pretty much dead in Germany. You wish.
- 3y ago
- fzil 3y ago> Anyway, if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. OK, let's for a second assume that all this crap started on Oct 7. What exactly have the Palestinians' in West Bank got to do with any of this shit? 1k arrests, settlers gunning down people walking down the street there. This whole shit is absolutely disgusting and the fact that people sit in the comforts of their home and preach about teaching "Gazan's their lessons", whatever the hell that means.
- Balgair 3y agoThen that means we're looking at ~150,000 to 200,000 Israeli casualties. Roughly a fourth of all their trained personnel and a seventh of all the males available for conscription. Nearly all of Gaza is built up urban centers and Hamas has had a decade plus of preparation time for this event. The urban fighting for the attackers is going to be some of the worst since Leningrad. It's going to take years to fully clean out the ~100 sqmi of Gaza. Such an invasion will reverberate in Israel for 100 years. It'll be not quite as bad as what happened to the USSR's male population after WW2. But it's going to be really really bad all the same. The PTSD alone is going to be unimaginable. Nothing good can come of this for either side, even the back of a napkin math is clear on that.
- petertodd 3y ago> Then that means we're looking at ~150,000 to 200,000 Israeli casualties. There is zero reason to think the IDF is going to take that many casualties. They are much better equipped than Hamas, and if needed, they can simply besiege areas to force Hamas to either leave or starve.
- megous 3y ago> Anyway, if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. Half or so of the population is <=18 years old. What mistakes did they do to deserve being killed and have their homeland destroyed? Enlighten us. Such a bizare argument. Just justification for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
- matsemann 3y ago> Anyway, if Gazan citizens learn the lessons of their mistakes, they still have a future. Are you seriously suggesting that the children killed are to be victim blamed, because they somehow didn't learn a lesson? Is that some kind of coping mechanism to be able to sleep at night? Where you demonize the population to make it easier to grasp. Or are you just that evil that you actually think these children deserve this?
- hathym 3y agoIs it within the rights of the Palestinian people to defend themselves ?