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EVs are getting so much cheaper so fast that they'll overtake ICE and hybrid sales soon... but vehicle stock in the US turns over slowly I've seen predictions

EVs are getting so much cheaper so fast that they'll overtake ICE and hybrid sales soon... but vehicle stock in the US turns over slowly I've seen predictions that at some point it'll be cheaper to get a new EV than to even keep gasoline in an old ICE car, and once we hit that point it'll flip quickly. 7 years feels tight for that, but not impossible

nradov 3y ago
There is zero chance of mainstream manufacturers being able to reach 50% EVs in 7 years. The supply chain capacity for batteries and other components simply can't ramp up that quickly regardless of customer demand.
- WorldMaker 3y ago
  The mainstream manufacturers have invested a lot very quickly into the supply chain for batteries. It is ramping up extremely fast. Many of the current supply issues seem to be that it is ramping up too fast and there is a bit of a "hysteresis effect" as new plants come online with early plant quality issues that just need time to smooth out. Several of the mainstream manufacturers have 100% EV goals in 7 years or less. (All of the German manufacturers do, and GM is said to internally have a similar goal despite the kid gloves they treat their shareholders with because US shareholders have too much love for ICE and would tank GM's stock if GM actually said that out loud.)
  - nradov 3y ago
    I simply don't believe your claim that GM is misleading their shareholders about EV plans. The Board isn't stupid enough to commit that type of securities fraud. Citation needed.
    - WorldMaker 3y ago
      Sorry, I don't think they are "lying" about anything to their shareholders and "kid gloves" was an attempt to describe what I think they are doing. I think they are playing a PR game trying to A/B test PR messages depending on the shareholders in question. Some PR messages are about GM is on a very fast track to electrification. Some PR messages are about GM still believes in ICE. Investors that were leaving in droves for Tesla or Rivian stock want to hear the first message. The big investors that are also dealers want to hear the second message for the time being (until they feel more comfortable selling EVs, and/or find ways to better monetize EV-related "services" in the ways they make most of their money selling ICE, and/or GM finally buys those dealers out in one way or the other). In neither side of the A/B test do they make too many "definite" statements of what their timelines are for full electrification or for selling their last ICE. Reading between the lines of the EV statements (as the type of investor that believes EVs are the present), their electrification speed has been mostly remarkable and leaves the impression that the GM board isn't as stupid as previous decades' boards have been and knows what the German timescales are (and has some idea of the existential threat of the Chinese car manufacturers that are 100% EV already today) and is trying to stay relevant/competitive in modern timescales. That's admittedly a very personal gut reaction of "hearsay" to intentionally wishy washy PR statements.
      - nradov 3y ago
        You're not making any sense. What are the actual conflicting messages? None of GM's franchised dealers are also major GM shareholders. The real major shareholders are more concerned about labor costs and strikes than about the pace of electrification. "We are also moderating the acceleration of EV production in North America to protect our pricing, adjust to slower near-term growth in demand, and implement engineering efficiency and other improvements that will make our vehicles less expensive to produce, and more profitable." https://news.gm.com/newsroom.detail.html/Pages/news/emergency_news/2023/shareholders/q3-23-ceo-letter-to-shareholders.html https://news.gm.com/newsroom.detail.html/Pages/news/emergenc...
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  China already builds enough EV's annually to supply > 200% of US demand.
yodsanklai 3y ago
I just came back from a road trip to the US. It seems a lot of people there drive insanely big pickup trucks for no other reason than fancying big stuff. I wonder how EVs fit into that picture. Are we talking very big electric cars or are we expecting them to transition to small + electric at the same time? Actually, even in Europe, cars are getting bigger and bigger. SUVs are very much on the rise, and small cars are getting bigger too. It's not so much a technical issue than consumer preferences at that stage. Without financiary incentives, I don't see consumers shifting to small/EVs cars
- colechristensen 3y ago
  The F150 Lightning sold so well they stopped taking preorders because the production was fully booked for more than a year. There will certainly be holdouts but folks that want huge vehicles will still get them but electric. Nothing but cost prevents big electric cars, and those gas trucks already often cost 60k+
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > lot of people there drive insanely big pickup trucks Depends on the region. By just solely concentrating on drivers in urban areas like the Bay Area, LA-SD Metro, Mid-Atlantic, and Chicagoland you can make a large enough dent to impact emissions. Most of these metropolitan areas are a good fit for electric cars, and in some of these (Bay Area and DMV) around 20-30% of the cars I'd see are Teslas alone. In general, a road trip within the US won't be a representative slice of the US as most of the population is concentrated in the Mid-Atlantic (Boston, NYC, DC), California (LA, SD, Sacramento, Bay Area), Chicagoland, and Texas (Austin, DFW, Houston).
- jes5199 3y ago
  I think there must be a cost-per-kwh where big trucks just get big batteries, and fast chargers get fast enough to push them. but we don’t seem to have hit that yet

nradov 3y ago

There is zero chance of mainstream manufacturers being able to reach 50% EVs in 7 years. The supply chain capacity for batteries and other components simply can't ramp up that quickly regardless of customer demand.

WorldMaker 3y ago
The mainstream manufacturers have invested a lot very quickly into the supply chain for batteries. It is ramping up extremely fast. Many of the current supply issues seem to be that it is ramping up too fast and there is a bit of a "hysteresis effect" as new plants come online with early plant quality issues that just need time to smooth out. Several of the mainstream manufacturers have 100% EV goals in 7 years or less. (All of the German manufacturers do, and GM is said to internally have a similar goal despite the kid gloves they treat their shareholders with because US shareholders have too much love for ICE and would tank GM's stock if GM actually said that out loud.)
- nradov 3y ago
  I simply don't believe your claim that GM is misleading their shareholders about EV plans. The Board isn't stupid enough to commit that type of securities fraud. Citation needed.
  - WorldMaker 3y ago
    Sorry, I don't think they are "lying" about anything to their shareholders and "kid gloves" was an attempt to describe what I think they are doing. I think they are playing a PR game trying to A/B test PR messages depending on the shareholders in question. Some PR messages are about GM is on a very fast track to electrification. Some PR messages are about GM still believes in ICE. Investors that were leaving in droves for Tesla or Rivian stock want to hear the first message. The big investors that are also dealers want to hear the second message for the time being (until they feel more comfortable selling EVs, and/or find ways to better monetize EV-related "services" in the ways they make most of their money selling ICE, and/or GM finally buys those dealers out in one way or the other). In neither side of the A/B test do they make too many "definite" statements of what their timelines are for full electrification or for selling their last ICE. Reading between the lines of the EV statements (as the type of investor that believes EVs are the present), their electrification speed has been mostly remarkable and leaves the impression that the GM board isn't as stupid as previous decades' boards have been and knows what the German timescales are (and has some idea of the existential threat of the Chinese car manufacturers that are 100% EV already today) and is trying to stay relevant/competitive in modern timescales. That's admittedly a very personal gut reaction of "hearsay" to intentionally wishy washy PR statements.
    - nradov 3y ago
      You're not making any sense. What are the actual conflicting messages? None of GM's franchised dealers are also major GM shareholders. The real major shareholders are more concerned about labor costs and strikes than about the pace of electrification. "We are also moderating the acceleration of EV production in North America to protect our pricing, adjust to slower near-term growth in demand, and implement engineering efficiency and other improvements that will make our vehicles less expensive to produce, and more profitable." https://news.gm.com/newsroom.detail.html/Pages/news/emergency_news/2023/shareholders/q3-23-ceo-letter-to-shareholders.html https://news.gm.com/newsroom.detail.html/Pages/news/emergenc...
bryanlarsen 3y ago
China already builds enough EV's annually to supply > 200% of US demand.

yodsanklai 3y ago

I just came back from a road trip to the US. It seems a lot of people there drive insanely big pickup trucks for no other reason than fancying big stuff. I wonder how EVs fit into that picture. Are we talking very big electric cars or are we expecting them to transition to small + electric at the same time? Actually, even in Europe, cars are getting bigger and bigger. SUVs are very much on the rise, and small cars are getting bigger too. It's not so much a technical issue than consumer preferences at that stage. Without financiary incentives, I don't see consumers shifting to small/EVs cars

colechristensen 3y ago
The F150 Lightning sold so well they stopped taking preorders because the production was fully booked for more than a year. There will certainly be holdouts but folks that want huge vehicles will still get them but electric. Nothing but cost prevents big electric cars, and those gas trucks already often cost 60k+
alephnerd 3y ago
> lot of people there drive insanely big pickup trucks Depends on the region. By just solely concentrating on drivers in urban areas like the Bay Area, LA-SD Metro, Mid-Atlantic, and Chicagoland you can make a large enough dent to impact emissions. Most of these metropolitan areas are a good fit for electric cars, and in some of these (Bay Area and DMV) around 20-30% of the cars I'd see are Teslas alone. In general, a road trip within the US won't be a representative slice of the US as most of the population is concentrated in the Mid-Atlantic (Boston, NYC, DC), California (LA, SD, Sacramento, Bay Area), Chicagoland, and Texas (Austin, DFW, Houston).
jes5199 3y ago
I think there must be a cost-per-kwh where big trucks just get big batteries, and fast chargers get fast enough to push them. but we don’t seem to have hit that yet