6 ms·

Auto execs are coming clean: EVs aren't working

18 points by TheAlchemist 3y ago

throwaway5959 3y ago
“Why aren’t customers buying the EVs we are not selling?”. Enough already, let the Chinese car manufacturers in.
supertrope 3y ago
...using current business models.
thebruce87m 3y ago
There is a LOT of misinformation going around about EVs too. Every single Facebook ad I see even mildly related to EVs or chargers has people claiming that EVs are a big fire risk, despite the stats showing they are less likely to catch fire. There is also the “hydrogen is just around the corner, keep using oil until it is” brigade. A lot of these are from fake profiles too. I see some with e.g. Clint Eastwood profile pictures, or names with “Liberty” in the name. These are obviously targeted at key demographics. Then there are the crazy ones that have feeds full of 5G and covid.
- artofcode 3y ago
  I've also seen a huge increase in anti EV & renewable energy propaganda. A look at the posts from a right-wing Facebook user I know are recently all about it: * Anti windmill posts * Human induced global warming not being real * EV charging stations powered by diesel-powered generators * EV bus catching fire * 'meme post' about an EV simply displacing the greenhouse gases to the power generator that's far away and using a battery that's poisoning children who make them * Cost of driving EVs are equal to $17.33 per gallon of gasoline Seems there is a real concentrated effort going on.
wutangson1 3y ago
I thought the headline was referring to the autoexec.bat file.
golem14 3y ago
The article is surprisingly scant on detail why this is. Are fewer cars sold in total? Are they not, and people continue to buy gasoline cars? Are fewer people driving? Is the situation the same worldwide?
- tuatoru 3y ago
  In China, a lot of EVs are being sold, something like 50% of all cars. The vast majority of them are very small, similar to the Japanese kei cars. They are used in "3rd tier" cities, not the cities you might have heard of such as Beijing and Wuhan. Crucially, these cars are affordable. Well under USD 10k. Not street legal in Western countries, of course. Back in the West, it appears that the pool of wealthy people who wish to virtue-signal by buying a car for $70K or more is finite. I haven't yet seen any stories about the experiences of rental car companies with electric cars, and why they are not snapping them up. Those stories would be very interesting. So would the stories of companies that operate their own fleets.
  - TheAlchemist 3y ago
    Well, you're just in time for the rental car companies. Hertz was releasing their quarterly results yesterday, and they sounded pretty negative on Tesla (they signed up for 100k Teslas last year - was a pretty huge deal): "The rental car company cited Tesla’s price cuts negatively impacting the resale value of its EVs, and higher than expected repair costs for EVs as a reason to slow its pace of electrification." "Hertz now has 35,000 Tesla vehicles and around 50,000 electric vehicles in its fleet -- far shy of the 100,000 Teslas that Hertz originally said it was ordering and expected by the end of 2022."
- heresie-dabord 3y ago
  There is this phrase in TFA: > the next wave of buyers focus on cost, infrastructure challenges, and lifestyle barriers to adopting. We can assume that new buyers are looking at the value proposition carefully: * There are few small-battery EVs available in most of North America (Fiat 500e is a California compliance car); * Large-battery EVs are expensive and require a significant charge rate beyond Level 2; * L2 charging at home is the minimally-viable requirement for saving money versus petrol; * There is no low-cost charging option for people who have no residential charging solution. If the cost of a rapid charge at a service station approaches the cost of fueling a PHEV or ICE, then PHEV or ICE may be cheaper to buy and more convenient (equally inconvenient) for refueling. Also bear in mind that the next cohort of buyers is facing a lodging crisis, sustained high cost of living, and then end of climate stability.
brucethemoose2 3y ago
Well, maybe a two row EV shouldn't weigh 9000lb? EVs are subject to their own form of the tyranny of the rocket equation, because the weight is dominated by fuel (the battery). The more battery you have, the more battery you need to haul that battery around, and so on. So they are the perfect platform for minimalist cars and plug-in hybrid setups... but instead everyone has decided they need to make giant, heavy, hilariously expensive luxury pure EVs.
- Rebelgecko 3y ago
  Are there any 9000 pound EVs other than the Hummer? That one is notable for its excess, most EVs are much lighter (just like most ICE cars are smaller and more efficient than humvees!)
  - brucethemoose2 3y ago
    It is an extreme example, but every pure EV I have seen is heavier than the ICE equivalent. The Model 3 3500-4000 lb, and its a small car and lighter than most other EVs.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      The Model 3 is a compact car @ 3,862 to 4,048 lbs, so it would comparable to an Accord rather than a Civic. A Honda accord is 3,239 to 3,280 lbs, so the Model 3 is obviously a few hundred pounds heavier (from 600 - 800 lbs).
      - brucethemoose2 3y ago
        And I would assert that ~3250lb is rather porky for a compact ICE car, even though thats "normal" these days.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        Ya, I’m much more interested in a luxury civic class EV, but those don’t really exist yet. We just have the leaf, bolt, and mini in the states.
brodouevencode 3y ago
This should come as no surprise. ICE vehicles (in the US) has an extremely large, stable infrastructure, economies of scale for parts/aftermarket/service, little to no supply chain issues, and a sense of reliability (most cars just _work_). The economics of EVs just don't play out as well as ICE. While the charging network is expanding there are still not fast chargers on nearly every exit ramp on every interstate like there are gas stations. Then there's the cost of the vehicle which is super expensive compared to the most popular vehicles (pickups and wagons) factoring in all the other EV issues. My 2 cents: we (the western economies) should have focused on hybrids first before jumping to EV. The fast push to EV was rather bold given hybrid tech works so well and uses the existing infrastructure. The push should have been much slower.
- harryquach 3y ago
  The price of the actual vehicle needs to be heavily subsidized before mass adoption

18 points by TheAlchemist 3y ago

throwaway5959 3y ago

“Why aren’t customers buying the EVs we are not selling?”. Enough already, let the Chinese car manufacturers in.

supertrope 3y ago

...using current business models.

thebruce87m 3y ago

There is a LOT of misinformation going around about EVs too. Every single Facebook ad I see even mildly related to EVs or chargers has people claiming that EVs are a big fire risk, despite the stats showing they are less likely to catch fire. There is also the “hydrogen is just around the corner, keep using oil until it is” brigade. A lot of these are from fake profiles too. I see some with e.g. Clint Eastwood profile pictures, or names with “Liberty” in the name. These are obviously targeted at key demographics. Then there are the crazy ones that have feeds full of 5G and covid.

artofcode 3y ago
I've also seen a huge increase in anti EV & renewable energy propaganda. A look at the posts from a right-wing Facebook user I know are recently all about it: * Anti windmill posts * Human induced global warming not being real * EV charging stations powered by diesel-powered generators * EV bus catching fire * 'meme post' about an EV simply displacing the greenhouse gases to the power generator that's far away and using a battery that's poisoning children who make them * Cost of driving EVs are equal to $17.33 per gallon of gasoline Seems there is a real concentrated effort going on.

wutangson1 3y ago

I thought the headline was referring to the autoexec.bat file.

golem14 3y ago

The article is surprisingly scant on detail why this is. Are fewer cars sold in total? Are they not, and people continue to buy gasoline cars? Are fewer people driving? Is the situation the same worldwide?

tuatoru 3y ago
In China, a lot of EVs are being sold, something like 50% of all cars. The vast majority of them are very small, similar to the Japanese kei cars. They are used in "3rd tier" cities, not the cities you might have heard of such as Beijing and Wuhan. Crucially, these cars are affordable. Well under USD 10k. Not street legal in Western countries, of course. Back in the West, it appears that the pool of wealthy people who wish to virtue-signal by buying a car for $70K or more is finite. I haven't yet seen any stories about the experiences of rental car companies with electric cars, and why they are not snapping them up. Those stories would be very interesting. So would the stories of companies that operate their own fleets.
- TheAlchemist 3y ago
  Well, you're just in time for the rental car companies. Hertz was releasing their quarterly results yesterday, and they sounded pretty negative on Tesla (they signed up for 100k Teslas last year - was a pretty huge deal): "The rental car company cited Tesla’s price cuts negatively impacting the resale value of its EVs, and higher than expected repair costs for EVs as a reason to slow its pace of electrification." "Hertz now has 35,000 Tesla vehicles and around 50,000 electric vehicles in its fleet -- far shy of the 100,000 Teslas that Hertz originally said it was ordering and expected by the end of 2022."
heresie-dabord 3y ago
There is this phrase in TFA: > the next wave of buyers focus on cost, infrastructure challenges, and lifestyle barriers to adopting. We can assume that new buyers are looking at the value proposition carefully: * There are few small-battery EVs available in most of North America (Fiat 500e is a California compliance car); * Large-battery EVs are expensive and require a significant charge rate beyond Level 2; * L2 charging at home is the minimally-viable requirement for saving money versus petrol; * There is no low-cost charging option for people who have no residential charging solution. If the cost of a rapid charge at a service station approaches the cost of fueling a PHEV or ICE, then PHEV or ICE may be cheaper to buy and more convenient (equally inconvenient) for refueling. Also bear in mind that the next cohort of buyers is facing a lodging crisis, sustained high cost of living, and then end of climate stability.

brucethemoose2 3y ago

Well, maybe a two row EV shouldn't weigh 9000lb? EVs are subject to their own form of the tyranny of the rocket equation, because the weight is dominated by fuel (the battery). The more battery you have, the more battery you need to haul that battery around, and so on. So they are the perfect platform for minimalist cars and plug-in hybrid setups... but instead everyone has decided they need to make giant, heavy, hilariously expensive luxury pure EVs.

Rebelgecko 3y ago
Are there any 9000 pound EVs other than the Hummer? That one is notable for its excess, most EVs are much lighter (just like most ICE cars are smaller and more efficient than humvees!)
- brucethemoose2 3y ago
  It is an extreme example, but every pure EV I have seen is heavier than the ICE equivalent. The Model 3 3500-4000 lb, and its a small car and lighter than most other EVs.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    The Model 3 is a compact car @ 3,862 to 4,048 lbs, so it would comparable to an Accord rather than a Civic. A Honda accord is 3,239 to 3,280 lbs, so the Model 3 is obviously a few hundred pounds heavier (from 600 - 800 lbs).
    - brucethemoose2 3y ago
      And I would assert that ~3250lb is rather porky for a compact ICE car, even though thats "normal" these days.
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        Ya, I’m much more interested in a luxury civic class EV, but those don’t really exist yet. We just have the leaf, bolt, and mini in the states.

brodouevencode 3y ago

This should come as no surprise. ICE vehicles (in the US) has an extremely large, stable infrastructure, economies of scale for parts/aftermarket/service, little to no supply chain issues, and a sense of reliability (most cars just _work_). The economics of EVs just don't play out as well as ICE. While the charging network is expanding there are still not fast chargers on nearly every exit ramp on every interstate like there are gas stations. Then there's the cost of the vehicle which is super expensive compared to the most popular vehicles (pickups and wagons) factoring in all the other EV issues. My 2 cents: we (the western economies) should have focused on hybrids first before jumping to EV. The fast push to EV was rather bold given hybrid tech works so well and uses the existing infrastructure. The push should have been much slower.

harryquach 3y ago
The price of the actual vehicle needs to be heavily subsidized before mass adoption