5 ms·

You've got a lot of answers already but ... wow... Allow me to say first of all that I agree we should have denser cities/towns, better public transport to get

You've got a lot of answers already but ... wow... Allow me to say first of all that I agree we should have denser cities/towns, better public transport to get around, and we should all use it more. But some stats (no citation, these are rattling around in my memory, feel free to fact check). 90% of cars are not utilised 90% of the time. That is insane wastage for energy intensively manufactured, expensive pieces of equipment. 1/3 of city centres are dedicated to parking (probably a US stat). Huge amount of valuable land unlocked. Imagine unlocking that capital and land inefficiency. Then imagine cars halve in size and drive bumper to bumper and twice the speed. That could be a 2 x 2 x 2 improvement in commuting. Don't get me wrong, even if we grant the pessimists on FSD that it won't be till 2100, that's a huge prize to be aiming at.

Mawr 3y ago
There's no need to imagine, what you're describing already exists in Europe. We already know how to do this with today's tech, no need to wait for anything. It's as simple as public transport + bicycles + dense mixed use zoning. > Then imagine cars halve in size and drive bumper to bumper and twice the speed. You're describing trains/trams.
conk 3y ago
Who cares if a car is only utilized 10% of the time. At 10% use the car is going to last an average of 20 years. Use it 90% of the time and it’s gonna get junked in 1-2 years.
- djrobstep 3y ago
  > Who cares if a car is only utilized 10% of the time. You understand that each car takes up a car-sized plot of (usually very valuable urban) land 100% of the time, right?
nradov 3y ago
I don't understand the concerns over vehicle utilization and parking. Even if autonomous vehicles are made to work they will still be idle most of the time in order to have sufficient peak time capacity. Across most of the country, parking isn't really an issue because there's plenty of space. It's only a concern in a handful of dense cities.
seadan83 3y ago
> Then imagine cars halve in size and drive bumper to bumper and twice the speed. And now imagine one of those cars hitting a large pothole Beyond this, how will there ever be 100% adoption to support that dream? There will always be a desire to have a steering wheel on some cars to go off road. It's really hard to see how that 2x2x2 dream could ever happen.
- xnx 3y ago
  > And now imagine one of those cars hitting a large pothole Or imagine the first time a self-driving car encounters a road-obstacle it flags it so that it can be repaired and all other cars avoid it automatically. > There will always be a desire to have a steering wheel on some cars to go off road Very true. People also own horses and burn candles, but these are not our primary means for transportation or lighting.
  - seadan83 3y ago
    > it flags it so that it can be repaired and all other cars avoid it automatically Doesn't help if you already have a multi-car pile up collision. OP said bumper to bumper at high speeds. Anything goes wrong and physics take over. > Very true. People also own horses and burn candles, but these are not our primary means for transportation or lighting. Horses very much still appear on roadways today. The idea that 100% of cars will be AI in the next 50 years I don't think is based in reality. Let's say we somehow get to a point where all cars have a switch to go from AI to not; so for example when on a highway where AI would shine, drivers could switch. What happens when a driver does not switch on the AI system? This is all to say the idea of that bumper-to-bumper driving at 100 mph with very small cars is snake-oil. > but these are not our primary means for transportation or lighting Not our primary means, but still a means and used. Again, this goes to the point, if you want that massive efficiency of AI cars, you need 100% adoption, not a single car in a convoy can be human operated. Alternatively, if the AI cars are smart enough to realize that another vehicle is human operated - do the AI cars slow down the entire convoy and then create adequate following distance? At that point, is that _any_ different from driving today?
  - seadan83 3y ago

Mawr 3y ago

There's no need to imagine, what you're describing already exists in Europe. We already know how to do this with today's tech, no need to wait for anything. It's as simple as public transport + bicycles + dense mixed use zoning. > Then imagine cars halve in size and drive bumper to bumper and twice the speed. You're describing trains/trams.

conk 3y ago

Who cares if a car is only utilized 10% of the time. At 10% use the car is going to last an average of 20 years. Use it 90% of the time and it’s gonna get junked in 1-2 years.

djrobstep 3y ago
> Who cares if a car is only utilized 10% of the time. You understand that each car takes up a car-sized plot of (usually very valuable urban) land 100% of the time, right?

nradov 3y ago

I don't understand the concerns over vehicle utilization and parking. Even if autonomous vehicles are made to work they will still be idle most of the time in order to have sufficient peak time capacity. Across most of the country, parking isn't really an issue because there's plenty of space. It's only a concern in a handful of dense cities.

seadan83 3y ago

> Then imagine cars halve in size and drive bumper to bumper and twice the speed. And now imagine one of those cars hitting a large pothole Beyond this, how will there ever be 100% adoption to support that dream? There will always be a desire to have a steering wheel on some cars to go off road. It's really hard to see how that 2x2x2 dream could ever happen.

xnx 3y ago
> And now imagine one of those cars hitting a large pothole Or imagine the first time a self-driving car encounters a road-obstacle it flags it so that it can be repaired and all other cars avoid it automatically. > There will always be a desire to have a steering wheel on some cars to go off road Very true. People also own horses and burn candles, but these are not our primary means for transportation or lighting.
- seadan83 3y ago
  > it flags it so that it can be repaired and all other cars avoid it automatically Doesn't help if you already have a multi-car pile up collision. OP said bumper to bumper at high speeds. Anything goes wrong and physics take over. > Very true. People also own horses and burn candles, but these are not our primary means for transportation or lighting. Horses very much still appear on roadways today. The idea that 100% of cars will be AI in the next 50 years I don't think is based in reality. Let's say we somehow get to a point where all cars have a switch to go from AI to not; so for example when on a highway where AI would shine, drivers could switch. What happens when a driver does not switch on the AI system? This is all to say the idea of that bumper-to-bumper driving at 100 mph with very small cars is snake-oil. > but these are not our primary means for transportation or lighting Not our primary means, but still a means and used. Again, this goes to the point, if you want that massive efficiency of AI cars, you need 100% adoption, not a single car in a convoy can be human operated. Alternatively, if the AI cars are smart enough to realize that another vehicle is human operated - do the AI cars slow down the entire convoy and then create adequate following distance? At that point, is that _any_ different from driving today?
- seadan83 3y ago