Right, but it’s well known that mortality predictions for novel diseases are inflated, often by virtue of missing people who don’t have symptoms they care about

Right, but it’s well known that mortality predictions for novel diseases are inflated, often by virtue of missing people who don’t have symptoms they care about enough to let anyone know. I forget who the statistician was that accurately predicted the mortality rate of the initial variants by just scaling the predictions down. Mortality of subsequent variants trends down on average because of selection pressures.