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What's the point of the economy, though? If a bunch of people think the economy's not doing well, that seems like a pretty strong indication that it in-fact is

What's the point of the economy, though? If a bunch of people think the economy's not doing well, that seems like a pretty strong indication that it in-fact is not in terms that matter, regardless of what GDP growth et c look like. To pick an extreme to illustrate the point: if GDP shoots up 100%(!) but it's all a dozen people trading with each other a whole lot and everyone else is now impoverished, is that better? GDP is better! GDP/capita is better, too! But the economy is definitely worse. Another exaggerated example to illustrate the point: if GDP is outpacing consumer inflation—let's say 4% growth in a quarter, and 2% inflation in the same—but only because we've made the "basket of goods" to calculate inflation qualitatively worse, and meanwhile several important things that aren't part of that basket have gone up 1,000% and everyone rightly reports feeling poorer—is the economy doing well?

WendyTheWillow 3y ago
Both of your examples presume the sentiment is justified, but that isn’t a given. How do you account for a generally poor outlook that externally influences sentiment despite a well functioning economy? Maybe everyone is miserable because they’re newly aware of the violence and injustice in the world generally. How is that useful when trying to understand the state of the economy specifically? It’s important to understand how people feel as a society, but this isn’t supposed to be that. How do you filter out the “noise”? We can’t really use “vibes” to determine if interest rates should go back down, for example. That would be disastrous.
- throwaway5959 3y ago
  Exactly, take for example this graph. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/02/PP_2020.02.07_views-of-economy_0-03box3.png https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/site... The economy suddenly was awesome once a Republican was back in office, according to Republicans. Just turned on a dime.
- thereddaikon 3y ago
  Everyone is miserable because of interest rates and inflation. It's hitting the consumer right now and those are really obvious indicators how things are going. McDonalds costs as much as a meal at a proper restaurant did before the pandemic. That's not good.
  - WendyTheWillow 3y ago
    Everyone is decidedly not miserable, and even if they were, your choice of highlighting inflation, a number that has been steadily decreasing for some time now, is curious. You act like people would finally be happy if inflation were just under some number. No. People will just find the next thing to be miserable about. That’s how people are now.
    - throwaway5959 3y ago
      People that watch Fox News/MSNBC and/or are addicted to social media.
  - ModernMech 3y ago
    > McDonalds costs as much as a meal at a proper restaurant did before the pandemic. That's not good. This is not exactly true. They raised their prices, but they have a permanent 30% off coupon on their app.
throwaway5959 3y ago
Again, an individual “feeling” like the economy doing well shouldn’t be used as a measure for how an economy is actually doing. Like when they interview people on the streets to see how they “feel” the economy is doing. God I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone.
matthewdgreen 3y ago
>If a bunch of people think the economy's not doing well, that seems like a pretty strong indication that it in-fact is not People radically misreport this stuff for political reasons. "The economy is doing well" numbers will change radically in a week when a different party takes the White House, typically in a purely partisan fashion [1]. The economy didn't get better in that week, it's just that people "feel" differently about things when their preferred (resp. disfavored) candidate takes office. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.asp...
mrguyorama 3y ago
The reality is that for republicans, "how good the economy feels" is tied directly to the letter next to the guy in the white house. It's not even based on who controls the senate, where their senators have spent the last 5 decades ruining the economy every single time they have had a chance. "But gas prices are low" so whatever apparently.

WendyTheWillow 3y ago

Both of your examples presume the sentiment is justified, but that isn’t a given. How do you account for a generally poor outlook that externally influences sentiment despite a well functioning economy? Maybe everyone is miserable because they’re newly aware of the violence and injustice in the world generally. How is that useful when trying to understand the state of the economy specifically? It’s important to understand how people feel as a society, but this isn’t supposed to be that. How do you filter out the “noise”? We can’t really use “vibes” to determine if interest rates should go back down, for example. That would be disastrous.

throwaway5959 3y ago
Exactly, take for example this graph. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/02/PP_2020.02.07_views-of-economy_0-03box3.png https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/site... The economy suddenly was awesome once a Republican was back in office, according to Republicans. Just turned on a dime.
thereddaikon 3y ago
Everyone is miserable because of interest rates and inflation. It's hitting the consumer right now and those are really obvious indicators how things are going. McDonalds costs as much as a meal at a proper restaurant did before the pandemic. That's not good.
- WendyTheWillow 3y ago
  Everyone is decidedly not miserable, and even if they were, your choice of highlighting inflation, a number that has been steadily decreasing for some time now, is curious. You act like people would finally be happy if inflation were just under some number. No. People will just find the next thing to be miserable about. That’s how people are now.
  - throwaway5959 3y ago
    People that watch Fox News/MSNBC and/or are addicted to social media.
- ModernMech 3y ago
  > McDonalds costs as much as a meal at a proper restaurant did before the pandemic. That's not good. This is not exactly true. They raised their prices, but they have a permanent 30% off coupon on their app.

throwaway5959 3y ago

Again, an individual “feeling” like the economy doing well shouldn’t be used as a measure for how an economy is actually doing. Like when they interview people on the streets to see how they “feel” the economy is doing. God I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone.

matthewdgreen 3y ago

>If a bunch of people think the economy's not doing well, that seems like a pretty strong indication that it in-fact is not People radically misreport this stuff for political reasons. "The economy is doing well" numbers will change radically in a week when a different party takes the White House, typically in a purely partisan fashion [1]. The economy didn't get better in that week, it's just that people "feel" differently about things when their preferred (resp. disfavored) candidate takes office. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.asp...

mrguyorama 3y ago

The reality is that for republicans, "how good the economy feels" is tied directly to the letter next to the guy in the white house. It's not even based on who controls the senate, where their senators have spent the last 5 decades ruining the economy every single time they have had a chance. "But gas prices are low" so whatever apparently.