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> sustainable levels That's really the key thing. What level is sustainable? I've come around to the idea that the main danger of deficit spending is inflation

> sustainable levels That's really the key thing. What level is sustainable? I've come around to the idea that the main danger of deficit spending is inflation (because of the idea that government debt is private sector wealth). The big levers the government have access to are spending and taxes. The first adds wealth, the second subtracts. In this way, government debt is really nothing like household debt that you and I have.

xedrac 3y ago
Inflation is their primary lever actually. Why bother paying down the debt when you can simply make it worth less? It's fiscally irresponsible, but that's how it works.
jonhohle 3y ago
You seem to agree with Keynes. Assuming you’re in the lower 99%, are you wealthier in proportion to increases costs over the past quarter? I personally don’t buy it. When other country’s start divesting from US treasury ties, the party will be over. Already prices are rising faster than income. What did Germany, Zimbabwe, and Argentina, Venezuela, etc. do wrong, that the US is doing right?
- criddell 3y ago
  A better question is to ask what is Japan doing right since they are a lot farther down this path. Their debt to GDP ratio is something like 230% which is almost 2x the US ratio.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    The answer is that Japan isn't doing it right. People struggle, taxes are high and pay is generally low (but for tourists, Japan is incredibly affordable). They still do OK, but we shouldn't see Japan as a model of how to do things.
    - criddell 3y ago
      Do you think if the government had less debt, all of those problems would be less severe?
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        That is impossible to say in isolation of just that one factor. My only claim is that Japan shouldn't be considered to be doing well.
somenameforme 3y ago
The USD is in quite a unique place that makes this formula a lot more complex. For example, a mixture of being the global reserve currency, as well as the largest consumer market in the world helps the US to effectively 'export its inflation.' A quick search [1] on that term can turn up a bunch more hits than this brief(?) post. Think about Carland, a country that makes lots of nice cars, and largely sells them to the US. Imagine the US decides to print a bunch of money, weakening our currency relative to Carland's. Carland's cars now cost more for Americans to buy. This might sound nice at first (for a Carlandian car peddler), but in reality what's going to happen is less cars are going to be sold, and your cars are likely to become less competitive than those from other countries. So the Carland government has a major incentive to try to weaken their own currency, and start doing exactly that. So other countries effectively end up absorbing much of our inflation, helping to greatly minimize the impact of any given batch of money-printing. So if the USD hits a point where we're no longer able to effectively export our inflation, the result's not going to just be inflation. That's a SHTF moment, because it means we'll have reached a point where we're inflating so much that other countries simply can't afford to absorb it without or imperiling their own economies, or have become okay with not exporting much to the US. Given how extremely dependent we are on imports, this is going to be a catastrophe. Beyond this there are lots of self-feedback effects to consider, especially with borrowing, but this post is already long enough! [1] - https://search.brave.com/search?q=exporting+inflation&source=web https://search.brave.com/search?q=exporting+inflation&source...

xedrac 3y ago

Inflation is their primary lever actually. Why bother paying down the debt when you can simply make it worth less? It's fiscally irresponsible, but that's how it works.

jonhohle 3y ago

You seem to agree with Keynes. Assuming you’re in the lower 99%, are you wealthier in proportion to increases costs over the past quarter? I personally don’t buy it. When other country’s start divesting from US treasury ties, the party will be over. Already prices are rising faster than income. What did Germany, Zimbabwe, and Argentina, Venezuela, etc. do wrong, that the US is doing right?

criddell 3y ago
A better question is to ask what is Japan doing right since they are a lot farther down this path. Their debt to GDP ratio is something like 230% which is almost 2x the US ratio.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  The answer is that Japan isn't doing it right. People struggle, taxes are high and pay is generally low (but for tourists, Japan is incredibly affordable). They still do OK, but we shouldn't see Japan as a model of how to do things.
  - criddell 3y ago
    Do you think if the government had less debt, all of those problems would be less severe?
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      That is impossible to say in isolation of just that one factor. My only claim is that Japan shouldn't be considered to be doing well.

somenameforme 3y ago

The USD is in quite a unique place that makes this formula a lot more complex. For example, a mixture of being the global reserve currency, as well as the largest consumer market in the world helps the US to effectively 'export its inflation.' A quick search [1] on that term can turn up a bunch more hits than this brief(?) post. Think about Carland, a country that makes lots of nice cars, and largely sells them to the US. Imagine the US decides to print a bunch of money, weakening our currency relative to Carland's. Carland's cars now cost more for Americans to buy. This might sound nice at first (for a Carlandian car peddler), but in reality what's going to happen is less cars are going to be sold, and your cars are likely to become less competitive than those from other countries. So the Carland government has a major incentive to try to weaken their own currency, and start doing exactly that. So other countries effectively end up absorbing much of our inflation, helping to greatly minimize the impact of any given batch of money-printing. So if the USD hits a point where we're no longer able to effectively export our inflation, the result's not going to just be inflation. That's a SHTF moment, because it means we'll have reached a point where we're inflating so much that other countries simply can't afford to absorb it without or imperiling their own economies, or have become okay with not exporting much to the US. Given how extremely dependent we are on imports, this is going to be a catastrophe. Beyond this there are lots of self-feedback effects to consider, especially with borrowing, but this post is already long enough! [1] - https://search.brave.com/search?q=exporting+inflation&source=web https://search.brave.com/search?q=exporting+inflation&source...