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Over the past decade, Hacker News has predicted approximately 15 of the past 0 Chinese economic collapses. In any thread about China, you have people shouting a
by vkou 3y ago
Over the past decade, Hacker News has predicted approximately 15 of the past 0 Chinese economic collapses. In any thread about China, you have people shouting about underproduction due to demographics, grousing about their high youth unemployment, and also talking about over-production, and pointing at their ghost cities.
Alas, as all three of those very simple narratives are mutually incompatible, we find that year after year, China keeps growing.
- berserk1010 3y agoAnd yet, European and American funds have been pulling out of China in the last few years. European, American, Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean manufacturing have been leaving China. Evergrande has gone bankrupt. Country Garden is next to go bankrupt. Maybe all these smart money know something you don't.
- xtian 3y agoThey know something you don’t also: there’s going to be a war. Not because China is doomed or collapsing but because it’s not.
- berserk1010 3y ago[flagged]
- xtian 3y agoAre you ok? Would you like to place a bet on China collapsing within two years? How about $10k?
- hakfoo 3y agoI have to think there's a fair amount of political pressure these days to not be all-in on China. See: any cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face trade rules. This isn't like dealing with the USSR, where the manufacturing infrastructure was admittedly a fair bit further back. We already taught them everything they know! Even if we can say "No new toys from ASML or nVidia", it just means it takes them a few years longer to develop comparable tech... and we don't get a cut of the deal. I feel like the real interesting angle is what happens if the US loses its "aspirational" status, more so than any specific military or economic goal. How long will the world continue to look to Washington for leadership? I think they're already losing a lot of the developing world, with lack of a compelling alternative to Belt And Road and the BRICS-etc. organization.
- mensetmanusman 3y agoTheir current growth rate is a collapse.