5 ms·

Cruise vehicles have sufficient sensor payloads to produce a 'milimeter-level scanning of SF' with many fewer hours than they've been on the road there. I doubt

Cruise vehicles have sufficient sensor payloads to produce a 'milimeter-level scanning of SF' with many fewer hours than they've been on the road there. I doubt that provides the biggest difference. It's all down the software at this point. Especially because they're not trying to do anything crazy like vision only.

kbos87 3y ago
We keep hearing this is crazy, but is there evidence to back that up? At this point with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction on the highways if it really is as crazy as the average HN reader has been led to believe.
- trogdor 3y ago
  >with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction Why do you believe that Tesla vehicles are driving millions of miles a month on autopilot? I suspect that autopilot accounts for a vanishingly small percentage of Tesla miles-driven. Mostly because it sucks, but also because of how hard it is to not miss a nag on a long road trip, with the result that you are locked out of autopilot until your next stop. (Yes, even when paying attention to the road, with your hands on the wheel. Hell, autopilot locks you out if you exceed 85 mph for more than a few seconds by pressing the accelerator, such as when passing. This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph.) I love the performance of my Model S Plaid. Autopilot, however, is a joke.
  - nohuck13 3y ago
    "This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph." Where do you drive where the speed limit is 85 mph?
    - gambiting 3y ago
      Poland? 140km/h is the motorway speed limit. Admittedly there aren't that many Teslas here. But they are extremely popular in Germany and you see people drive them at silly speeds.
      - shanti2001 3y ago
        [flagged]
        gambiting 3y ago
        >>no Care to expand?
      - flohofwoe 3y ago
        "Extremely popular in Germany" is a bit of a stretch, from googling around, there are only around 40k Teslas out of 48 million cars overall in Germany (which is about 0.08%).
        gambiting 3y ago
        Well, yes - I think what I really meant was that they are extremely popular[among electric cars]. Whenever I drive through Germany and stop at an autohof all tesla chargers are always occupied, and you see quite a lot of them on the roads just driving around. But you're right, 40k is nothing in such a big country.
        BtM909 3y ago
        It's a bit of a stretch to just randomly drop some numbers... In the US in the last three Q's the marketshare of Tesla is 0,003868139%
      - AniseAbyss 3y ago
        [dead]
      - kwhitefoot 3y ago
        Some German cars are driven at sillier speeds. I've been on the autobahn driving my Model S at well over 200 kph and been passed quite quickly by big German cars.
  - F-W-M 3y ago
    > This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph. Once traffic rules are enforced by autonomous cars that don't let you go over the speed limit, we can start raising the limit to more realistic levels. I guess currently it is priced in that everyone goes over by x km/h.
    - salawat 3y ago
      >Once traffic rules are enforced by autonomous cars that don't let you go over the speed limit, we can start raising the limit to more realistic levels. I guess currently it is priced in that everyone goes over by x km/h. Bloody noghtmare fuel that, but it's been the inexhorable direction manufacturers and Governments have been pushing for for a while. Stop making things that enable people more than it constrains them. The act of velvet glove societal manipulation is pretty damn obnoxious once you realize it's a thing.
  - kbos87 3y ago
    Tesla reported that there were 400,000 cars in the US and Canada who had access to FSD Beta in January 2023, so I don’t think that’s at all hard to believe. Edit: Looks like back in January they were adding 10M cumulative miles driven per month (roughly) - https://insideevs.com/news/633328/tesla-fsd-beta-now-active-to-400000-cars-us-canada/amp/ https://insideevs.com/news/633328/tesla-fsd-beta-now-active-...
    - trogdor 3y ago
      Assuming those data are accurate, it looks like you’re right. Surprising, but it is what it is.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    I probably use AP >80% of the time on the highway. From observing comments in the local Tesla groups, I'm sure there are plenty of people who behave similarly. Millions of miles per month doesn't surprise me at all.
  - sgustard 3y ago
    Wow, I've had much more positive experiences with Autopilot on multi-hour highway trips. No shutoffs, no phantom braking in the last year or two. Autopilot on the highway is so much better than any other car I've driven with adaptive cruise. Anyway, the parent is comparing city and highway self-driving and they are completely different.
- Galaxeblaffer 3y ago
  the only reason we don't hear non-stop about destruction is that you're required to keep both hands on the wheel/yolk at ALL times while FSD is activated. comparing the current cameras on a Tesla to the human eye is just silly really, sure they cover 360 which is superior, but in almost any other way, the human eye is superior having better dynamic range, better contrast, better resolution and best of all, we have eye lids. if you would just sit down and think about it for 10 mins you'll realize that gimping your self driving car by using cameras only is just a very very silly proposition when we have all this cool tech like lidar essentially giving the car super powers.
  - kbos87 3y ago
    If FSD drivers were having to constantly intervene because the car couldn’t accurately map obstacles, we’d be hearing a lot more about it. I drive with FSD all the time - I could give you a list of things it needs to improve on, but not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings.
    - space_fountain 3y ago
      I do see stories about FSD seemingly trying to drive into obstacles fairly often. It’s true that it does see most obstacles, but most is not good enough for this.
    - bumby 3y ago
      >not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings. This has been my gripe for a long time. I feel like many in tech have conflated two problems. With current software the problem of perception (ie "understanding its surroundings") is largely solved*, but this shouldn't be conflated with the much more difficult problem of self-driving. *for sure, there have been issues with perception. A glaring example is the Uber fatality in AZ.
      - kbos87 3y ago
        This exactly. Reading the comments and understanding the huge gap between perception and reality of FSD is eye opening. There are a lot of armchair experts here who wouldn’t be caught dead driving a Tesla but are so confident in their understanding of its strengths, weaknesses, and the underlying reasons.

kbos87 3y ago

We keep hearing this is crazy, but is there evidence to back that up? At this point with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction on the highways if it really is as crazy as the average HN reader has been led to believe.

trogdor 3y ago
>with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction Why do you believe that Tesla vehicles are driving millions of miles a month on autopilot? I suspect that autopilot accounts for a vanishingly small percentage of Tesla miles-driven. Mostly because it sucks, but also because of how hard it is to not miss a nag on a long road trip, with the result that you are locked out of autopilot until your next stop. (Yes, even when paying attention to the road, with your hands on the wheel. Hell, autopilot locks you out if you exceed 85 mph for more than a few seconds by pressing the accelerator, such as when passing. This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph.) I love the performance of my Model S Plaid. Autopilot, however, is a joke.
- nohuck13 3y ago
  "This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph." Where do you drive where the speed limit is 85 mph?
  - gambiting 3y ago
    Poland? 140km/h is the motorway speed limit. Admittedly there aren't that many Teslas here. But they are extremely popular in Germany and you see people drive them at silly speeds.
    - shanti2001 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - gambiting 3y ago
        >>no Care to expand?
    - flohofwoe 3y ago
      "Extremely popular in Germany" is a bit of a stretch, from googling around, there are only around 40k Teslas out of 48 million cars overall in Germany (which is about 0.08%).
      - gambiting 3y ago
        Well, yes - I think what I really meant was that they are extremely popular[among electric cars]. Whenever I drive through Germany and stop at an autohof all tesla chargers are always occupied, and you see quite a lot of them on the roads just driving around. But you're right, 40k is nothing in such a big country.
      - BtM909 3y ago
        It's a bit of a stretch to just randomly drop some numbers... In the US in the last three Q's the marketshare of Tesla is 0,003868139%
    - AniseAbyss 3y ago
      [dead]
    - kwhitefoot 3y ago
      Some German cars are driven at sillier speeds. I've been on the autobahn driving my Model S at well over 200 kph and been passed quite quickly by big German cars.
- F-W-M 3y ago
  > This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph. Once traffic rules are enforced by autonomous cars that don't let you go over the speed limit, we can start raising the limit to more realistic levels. I guess currently it is priced in that everyone goes over by x km/h.
  - salawat 3y ago
    >Once traffic rules are enforced by autonomous cars that don't let you go over the speed limit, we can start raising the limit to more realistic levels. I guess currently it is priced in that everyone goes over by x km/h. Bloody noghtmare fuel that, but it's been the inexhorable direction manufacturers and Governments have been pushing for for a while. Stop making things that enable people more than it constrains them. The act of velvet glove societal manipulation is pretty damn obnoxious once you realize it's a thing.
- kbos87 3y ago
  Tesla reported that there were 400,000 cars in the US and Canada who had access to FSD Beta in January 2023, so I don’t think that’s at all hard to believe. Edit: Looks like back in January they were adding 10M cumulative miles driven per month (roughly) - https://insideevs.com/news/633328/tesla-fsd-beta-now-active-to-400000-cars-us-canada/amp/ https://insideevs.com/news/633328/tesla-fsd-beta-now-active-...
  - trogdor 3y ago
    Assuming those data are accurate, it looks like you’re right. Surprising, but it is what it is.
- _ea1k 3y ago
  I probably use AP >80% of the time on the highway. From observing comments in the local Tesla groups, I'm sure there are plenty of people who behave similarly. Millions of miles per month doesn't surprise me at all.
- sgustard 3y ago
  Wow, I've had much more positive experiences with Autopilot on multi-hour highway trips. No shutoffs, no phantom braking in the last year or two. Autopilot on the highway is so much better than any other car I've driven with adaptive cruise. Anyway, the parent is comparing city and highway self-driving and they are completely different.
Galaxeblaffer 3y ago
the only reason we don't hear non-stop about destruction is that you're required to keep both hands on the wheel/yolk at ALL times while FSD is activated. comparing the current cameras on a Tesla to the human eye is just silly really, sure they cover 360 which is superior, but in almost any other way, the human eye is superior having better dynamic range, better contrast, better resolution and best of all, we have eye lids. if you would just sit down and think about it for 10 mins you'll realize that gimping your self driving car by using cameras only is just a very very silly proposition when we have all this cool tech like lidar essentially giving the car super powers.
- kbos87 3y ago
  If FSD drivers were having to constantly intervene because the car couldn’t accurately map obstacles, we’d be hearing a lot more about it. I drive with FSD all the time - I could give you a list of things it needs to improve on, but not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings.
  - space_fountain 3y ago
    I do see stories about FSD seemingly trying to drive into obstacles fairly often. It’s true that it does see most obstacles, but most is not good enough for this.
  - bumby 3y ago
    >not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings. This has been my gripe for a long time. I feel like many in tech have conflated two problems. With current software the problem of perception (ie "understanding its surroundings") is largely solved*, but this shouldn't be conflated with the much more difficult problem of self-driving. *for sure, there have been issues with perception. A glaring example is the Uber fatality in AZ.
    - kbos87 3y ago
      This exactly. Reading the comments and understanding the huge gap between perception and reality of FSD is eye opening. There are a lot of armchair experts here who wouldn’t be caught dead driving a Tesla but are so confident in their understanding of its strengths, weaknesses, and the underlying reasons.