5 ms·

>public sector growth has outpaced private sector during that whole time Interesting, do you have a source for this? Would love to read more about it

motohagiography 3y ago
This example is for the prior decade, but the difference is so stark over 2003-2013 (22% public sector growth vs. 10% private) that even if the comment was conjecture, it would be a pretty good one. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/times-have-changed-public-sector-employment-on-the-rise-in-canada-especially-in-ontario https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/times-have-changed-p... I'd suggest a more constructive comment might be to find an example source and ask whether it is consistent with the reasoning. These "source?" comments are low effort and degrade the quality of conversation.
- II2II 3y ago
  It is also worth noting that the Fraiser Institute is a conservative think tank and the article does not explain their methodology. In some ways the article is contradicting itself, by making assertions that imply causation near the top of the article then admiting that correlation does not imply causation near the end of the article. Understanding whether we are looking at causation or correlation is important here. Canada is neighbours with the largest economy in the world, with the Canadian economy being heavily influenced by the American economy. Quite often public programs are introduced simply to be competitive because the private sector is not stepping up. (At least that is the perception. That perception is important polticially.)
  - faeriechangling 3y ago
    I found that Fraser Institute article first and went through the effort of finding the actual Statscan data because I'm well aware that a significant slice of Canadians will disregard anything coming from the Fraser Institute. I've been hearing about they're an evil organisation funded by American Corporations since I was a wee lad hearing my socialist family complain about the latest Fraser Institute study published in our local Postmedia paper. They implored me never to trust them! In any case, their claims seem to line up with the Statscan data to me, and I don't see where else they would have gotten this data from.
    - fooster 3y ago
      They may have just made it up to fit their narrative.
  - motohagiography 3y ago
    It's an example that is better than a comment that says, "source?" Pretty sure public sector growth outpaces private sector growth in Canada. However, what is "stepping up," in the private sector, as if it involves putting down our cigars and caviar and having our butlers open the jobs lever a bit, I'd suggest there is a broken ontology at play.
faeriechangling 3y ago
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028802 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=141002... Sept 2023 - Public sector employees: 4,291.7; Private sector employees: 13,293.4; Self-employed: 2,685.1 Sept 2003 - Public sector employees: 2,945.8; Private sector employees: 10,298.9; Self-employed: 2,430.0 Difference - Public sector employees: 1,345.9; Private sector employees: 2994.5; Self-employed: 255.1 % growth - Public sector employees: 45.7%; Private sector employees: 29.1%; Self-employed: 10.5%
- Scoundreller 3y ago
  Population change over the same time period is +23%. 31.6m to 38.8m Where did all the jobs come from? Are people not retiring? Spending less time in schooling? It's wasn't a massive decrease in unemployment that could explain that. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/population https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/population
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - abdullahkhalids 3y ago
    A large part of the population growth is from adult working-age immigrants. So the employable proportion of the population has gone up.
  - BeefWellington 3y ago
    That would make 23% roughly the floor then for public sector growth, assuming that the increase in population requires a corresponding increase in jobs like teachers, police, firefighters, healthcare, and all the other civil servants. The remaining 26% is the real question - who did huge hiring over the past 20 years?
tormeh 3y ago
An easy way to explain this is increased health care and old-age care costs due to an ageing population. I haven't verified it for Canada in particular, but I'd be surprised if this wasn't the cause.

motohagiography 3y ago

This example is for the prior decade, but the difference is so stark over 2003-2013 (22% public sector growth vs. 10% private) that even if the comment was conjecture, it would be a pretty good one. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/times-have-changed-public-sector-employment-on-the-rise-in-canada-especially-in-ontario https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/times-have-changed-p... I'd suggest a more constructive comment might be to find an example source and ask whether it is consistent with the reasoning. These "source?" comments are low effort and degrade the quality of conversation.

II2II 3y ago
It is also worth noting that the Fraiser Institute is a conservative think tank and the article does not explain their methodology. In some ways the article is contradicting itself, by making assertions that imply causation near the top of the article then admiting that correlation does not imply causation near the end of the article. Understanding whether we are looking at causation or correlation is important here. Canada is neighbours with the largest economy in the world, with the Canadian economy being heavily influenced by the American economy. Quite often public programs are introduced simply to be competitive because the private sector is not stepping up. (At least that is the perception. That perception is important polticially.)
- faeriechangling 3y ago
  I found that Fraser Institute article first and went through the effort of finding the actual Statscan data because I'm well aware that a significant slice of Canadians will disregard anything coming from the Fraser Institute. I've been hearing about they're an evil organisation funded by American Corporations since I was a wee lad hearing my socialist family complain about the latest Fraser Institute study published in our local Postmedia paper. They implored me never to trust them! In any case, their claims seem to line up with the Statscan data to me, and I don't see where else they would have gotten this data from.
  - fooster 3y ago
    They may have just made it up to fit their narrative.
- motohagiography 3y ago
  It's an example that is better than a comment that says, "source?" Pretty sure public sector growth outpaces private sector growth in Canada. However, what is "stepping up," in the private sector, as if it involves putting down our cigars and caviar and having our butlers open the jobs lever a bit, I'd suggest there is a broken ontology at play.

faeriechangling 3y ago

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028802 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=141002... Sept 2023 - Public sector employees: 4,291.7; Private sector employees: 13,293.4; Self-employed: 2,685.1 Sept 2003 - Public sector employees: 2,945.8; Private sector employees: 10,298.9; Self-employed: 2,430.0 Difference - Public sector employees: 1,345.9; Private sector employees: 2994.5; Self-employed: 255.1 % growth - Public sector employees: 45.7%; Private sector employees: 29.1%; Self-employed: 10.5%

Scoundreller 3y ago
Population change over the same time period is +23%. 31.6m to 38.8m Where did all the jobs come from? Are people not retiring? Spending less time in schooling? It's wasn't a massive decrease in unemployment that could explain that. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/population https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/population
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- abdullahkhalids 3y ago
  A large part of the population growth is from adult working-age immigrants. So the employable proportion of the population has gone up.
- BeefWellington 3y ago
  That would make 23% roughly the floor then for public sector growth, assuming that the increase in population requires a corresponding increase in jobs like teachers, police, firefighters, healthcare, and all the other civil servants. The remaining 26% is the real question - who did huge hiring over the past 20 years?

tormeh 3y ago

An easy way to explain this is increased health care and old-age care costs due to an ageing population. I haven't verified it for Canada in particular, but I'd be surprised if this wasn't the cause.