> Quite sure you answered your own question here. Survivorship bias isn't a valid argument. Lebanon, Greece, Pakistan, Turkey all come to mind in the last decad

> Quite sure you answered your own question here. Survivorship bias isn't a valid argument. Lebanon, Greece, Pakistan, Turkey all come to mind in the last decade, all with unsustainable amounts of debt. Incompetent government is the higher risk. And with Greece, the problem was only partly created by themselves: it was also the French and Germans who insisted that their bankers (who held a large portion of Greece's bond) be paid back and were willing to blackmail the Greek government. This is evidenced by the fact it all went away when the ECB said (Draghi: "whatever it takes") it would be the lender of last (like the US Fed is).