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I'm quite convinced that China is going to dominate the EV market in the next decade. I've been strolling around Shenzen for the last 2 weeks. By my estimation

I'm quite convinced that China is going to dominate the EV market in the next decade. I've been strolling around Shenzen for the last 2 weeks. By my estimation, roughly 50%-70% of cars on the road are already EVs. 100% of my Didi (China's Uber) rides have been EVs. I could be wrong but Shenzen might have banned new ICE cars already. I went into a mall in Shenzen and noticed that Huawei had a store and they made electric cars.[0] This was a shock to me because I always thought that Huawei was a phone and networking company. I was impressed with the thoughtfulness of the interior and the build quality of the Huawei cars. The build quality felt better than Teslas. The shock factor is that a phone/networking company is capable of pushing out decent quality EVs already. It seems like there is a huge build up of EV talent here along with an unmatched supply chain to mass manufacture EV cars. So while Tesla is struggling to mass produce the cybertruck, China doesn't seem like it's having any issues mass producing EVs. Heck, US media made me think that mass manufacturing EVs is as hard as building the large hadron collider. But in China, every random company and grandma seem to be designing and producing EVs. PS. It's not just Shenzen. I also went to more rural places in Guangdong and there were still around 20-30% EVs on the road. Guangzhou, another Tier 1 city next to Shenzen was probably around 30 - 40% EVs by my estimation. [0]It seems like Huawei makes the platform of the car I saw (Aito M7) but the brand of the car is Aito.

gumballindie 3y ago
One extra reason why I think countries such as Germany, who’s industry relies on highly polluting ice cars, is in for a shock. This decade is likely to see significant readjustment in terms of european economic “powerhouses”. Chinese and Asian quality is also on the rise overall, while German quality is on the fall. We shall what lies ahead but will be interesting to watch.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  I basically only saw three main categories of cars in Shenzen: Chinese EVs, Teslas, BMW ICE cars. There are of course other cars, but it seems like 8/10 cars is one of these three. What is weirdly missing is Japanese hybrid/ice/electric cars. They are almost non-existent in Shenzen despite dominating in most areas of the world. Also, I can't recall seeing any Korean cars here. There were a few Toyata ICE cars in the rural areas I visited but it seems like they're going away fast.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Hyundai China is a Beijing-based JV, so you'll see more up north than down south. Toyota got absolutely hammered by production problems in their Chinese factories a few years ago (so the reputation for Toyota in China is low vs. the higher quality rep they have everywhere else). GAC Toyota is based in Guangzhou however, so you would expect to see more down there. PHEVs don't have any special incentives in China, so you aren't going to see them (EV will get you into a special quota where you can buy a car at all in many tier 1 cities, PHEV gets you nothing).
- potatopatch 3y ago
  I'd say its more a lack of R&D than quality overall.. I kind of expect a lot of Europeans to continue paying 4X more for cars that are 45% European and maybe have one or two strategic pieces of design but mostly just traditional quality cosmetics.
- carstenhag 3y ago
  German here, working in the EV industry. General population is still skeptic towards EVs, but it's getting better, as charging stations become more common. Some popular brands going fully electric in some years, most aiming for 50-80% fully electric before 2030. BMW/Porsche, politicians and population still wanting ICE cars. Chinese brands are arriving, they are being slowly accepted, mainly because of their good price. Not hearing good things about the dealerships though. Dealerships are not getting replacement parts or enough support from China basically.
mooreds 3y ago
There's an Odd Lots episode on that topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_whcU2-vD4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_whcU2-vD4
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> shock factor is that a phone/networking company is capable of pushing out decent quality EVs already With ICE, the engine is the industry. With EVs, the secret sauce is the battery. Not saying the other parts are easy. But the core of the value add has shifted upstream. And in that domain, China absolutely dominates.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  A lot of the batteries are being provided by LG, Samsung or Panasonic, Samsung even provides LFPs now. So it isn't completely dominated by China yet, although they have a huge lead.
  - nickik 3y ago
    But many of the inputs to these battery go threw China as well.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      through. But China isn't really the main source of these materials, you have many in Australia and Bolivia as well. I think they are the main refining source because they do it more cheaply (although...they are just subsidizing it via harm to their environment).
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    Hmm, I don't think that gives an accurate picture, China: > ... has about 70% of the world’s production capacity of cathodes (the part of the cell that receives electrons) and more than 80% of anodes (the part that releases electrons on discharge), and well over half of electrolyte and separator output. Those parts come together to make a lithium-ion battery, more than three quarters of which are made in China and mostly by just two firms — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. and BYD Co.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      CATL and BYD are the top battery producers, after all. But after that you see Japanese and Korean manufacturers. Also, most of the batteries produced by CATL and BYD are going to satisfy internal Chinese demand, whereas most of the cars in the west are using non-Chinese batteries. Tesla using CATL batteries in their entry level Model 3 is a huge breakthrough for Chinese battery manufacturers.
jstarfish 3y ago
I had the same experience with Huawei (tech). Here in America, the narrative is only ever "lol Huawei" but their UX is second only to Apple. Huawei gear is like a Samsung that doesn't find annoying ways to suck.
robbywashere_ 3y ago
I’m curious about how ICE vehicles are culturally embedded in China or if there is a lack there of. People in the states seem to have “feelings” about electric vs ICE. For instance; “rolling coal” do they do that in China?
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > curious about how ICE vehicles are culturally embedded in China or if there is a lack there of China, despite being a major oil producer, is still a net importer [1]. America is a net exporter [2]. To a significant degree, this underlies the cultures' divergent views towards EVs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_China [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-poised-become-net-exporter-crude-oil-2023-2022-12-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-poised-become-net...
  - aurareturn 3y ago
    You don't need to go that far. Just look at EV culture between California vs Texas.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Chinese cities like Beijing have quotas on how many cars Beijingers can buy/drive. The quota is more open to EVs, so you'll see a lot of Beijingers buying EVs because they simply can't win the lottery to buy an ICE (and don't want to wait to do so). Many cities have similar regulations as Beijing, so its not really a "cultural preference" as much as it is "I need a car, and EV is the only one I can get now."
  - aurareturn 3y ago
    I think it's simpler than that. I asked a few DiDi drivers why they only use EVs. They basically told me that oil is expensive and electricity is cheaper. It's only profitably to drive EVs as DiDis because of that. China is a net importer of oil. 100% of my DiDi rides in Shenzen and around 80% in rural areas were EVs.
dieselgate 3y ago
Not sure it's been mentioned by others but if you only look at Production Output [1] doesn't China already "dominate" the market? [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/270537/forecast-for-electric-car-production-in-selected-countries/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/270537/forecast-for-elec...
- aurareturn 3y ago
  I guess it's one thing to see it a chart and another to see it in person. It's a bit hard to describe what I saw without trying to sound like I'm doing marketing for China's EV market.
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  China has had lots of small/cheap/first-gen EVs that westerners would be snobby about as they ramped up and the bare numbers don't reflect that qualitative angle. I would however agree that they do now currently dominate the market for EVs (including the high end and mid market), and that dominance will only expand over the next decade. I can't see any way for EU or US to reverse it now, but they could keep up better if they tried.
nickik 3y ago
Tesla issues with the Cybertruck has nothing to do with it beeing an EV. Tesla manufactures more EVs then any other company from China, outside of maybe BYD. And EV companies in China are not magical, and most arent incredibly good at EV manifacture. Many of them are losing money just as in the West. And there is consolidation in that market, just as in the West. And EV account for like 25% of new cars, so they are not that far ahead. And of course, in China they often have much smaller cars, so pure numbers arent a great comparison depending on what you are analysing.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  >Tesla manufactures more EVs then any other company from China, outside of maybe BYD. The highest Gigafactory output is Shanghai, by far. To me, this demonstrates China's EV manufacturing prowess, if we didn't know already. >And EV companies in China are not magical, and most arent incredibly good at EV manifacture. Many of them are losing money just as in the West. And there is consolidation in that market, just as in the West. I'm not saying that many of them aren't losing money. What shocked me the most was the relentless pace of EV adoption in China along with just how many different companies design and make EVs there. >And EV account for like 25% of new cars, so they are not that far ahead. And of course, in China they often have much smaller cars, so pure numbers arent a great comparison depending on what you are analysing. The 25% seem to match my observation in non-Shenzen areas, which I mentioned in my original post. But the 25% isn't what is impressive. It's the pace of adoption. SCMP reported the 25% number in May 2023, which is probably where you got it from. But it was only 12.5% in 2022. It doubled within one year. Would it impress you if it's 50% in 2024?
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    > The 25% seem to match my observation in non-Shenzen areas, which I mentioned in my original post. Doesn't Shenzhen have similar regulations as Beijing? If they are providing different and larger quotas for people to register EVs, you'll see more EVs simply because that is what the government is allowing people to buy.
    - 3y ago
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
> So while Tesla is struggling to mass produce the cybertruck, China doesn't seem like it's having any issues mass producing EVs. Aren't China produced Model 3/Y still very popular in China? See https://insideevs.com/news/685905/china-tesla-retail-sales-august2023/#:~:text=Retail%20Sales%20in%20China&text=So%20far%20this%20year%2C%20Tesla,margins%20are%20most%20likely%20affected https://insideevs.com/news/685905/china-tesla-retail-sales-a.... Chinese build quality is getting better, but they still have "problems" producing cars, you just don't hear about them as much as Tesla these days. You'll still see a lot of foreign brands on the road (even if they are made in China due to tariffs). Those government officials aren't going to slum it and not get driven around in Black Audis.
- fgsfds028374 3y ago
  [dead]
- aurareturn 3y ago
  Yes, Teslas are still popular in China. Never said they're not. In terms of foreign brands, I mostly only noticed BMWs, Teslas, and a few Audis. In rural areas, some Toyotas. That's about it. The rest are almost all Chinese EV/ICE.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    You see Black Audis in cities with lots of government officials (so Beijing, rather than SZ). Every city is a bit different in their mix. BYD being headquartered in SZ means that it gets to dominate its taxi market (vs. Beijing, where most taxies are Beijing produced Hyundai).
    - lancewiggs 3y ago
      Shenzhen made all its busses electric in 2018, and transitioned its taxi fleet to EV by about 2019-2020, while mopeds were also largely moving over in to EV in early 2019. It's the future.
TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
I still think that BEVs are going to be nothing more than a subsidies propelled niche product. Only one who REALLY wants BEVs to happen are OEM manufactures who invested lot of money into chasing castles in the sky, without actually thinking if people are going to buy more expensive car with lower convenience of use than general ICE. And I am saying that as owner of Skoda Enyaq.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  I don't see it. Not after being in Shenzen. I just don't see how they will ever go back to ICE. The air quality is significantly better than when I visited around 6 years ago. There are chargers built into seemingly every parking spot in the mall and residential buildings.
  - TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
    What you saw there is a result of heavily subsidized electricity.
    - aurareturn 3y ago
      And the government probably subsidizes oil too. It’s easier to build more nuclear power plants than to import more oil in the long term.
      - TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
        I live in Europe. We have 50% tax on gas. Yet charging on public chargers is comparable in price-per-mile, sometimes even more expensive.

gumballindie 3y ago

One extra reason why I think countries such as Germany, who’s industry relies on highly polluting ice cars, is in for a shock. This decade is likely to see significant readjustment in terms of european economic “powerhouses”. Chinese and Asian quality is also on the rise overall, while German quality is on the fall. We shall what lies ahead but will be interesting to watch.

aurareturn 3y ago
I basically only saw three main categories of cars in Shenzen: Chinese EVs, Teslas, BMW ICE cars. There are of course other cars, but it seems like 8/10 cars is one of these three. What is weirdly missing is Japanese hybrid/ice/electric cars. They are almost non-existent in Shenzen despite dominating in most areas of the world. Also, I can't recall seeing any Korean cars here. There were a few Toyata ICE cars in the rural areas I visited but it seems like they're going away fast.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Hyundai China is a Beijing-based JV, so you'll see more up north than down south. Toyota got absolutely hammered by production problems in their Chinese factories a few years ago (so the reputation for Toyota in China is low vs. the higher quality rep they have everywhere else). GAC Toyota is based in Guangzhou however, so you would expect to see more down there. PHEVs don't have any special incentives in China, so you aren't going to see them (EV will get you into a special quota where you can buy a car at all in many tier 1 cities, PHEV gets you nothing).
potatopatch 3y ago
I'd say its more a lack of R&D than quality overall.. I kind of expect a lot of Europeans to continue paying 4X more for cars that are 45% European and maybe have one or two strategic pieces of design but mostly just traditional quality cosmetics.
carstenhag 3y ago
German here, working in the EV industry. General population is still skeptic towards EVs, but it's getting better, as charging stations become more common. Some popular brands going fully electric in some years, most aiming for 50-80% fully electric before 2030. BMW/Porsche, politicians and population still wanting ICE cars. Chinese brands are arriving, they are being slowly accepted, mainly because of their good price. Not hearing good things about the dealerships though. Dealerships are not getting replacement parts or enough support from China basically.

mooreds 3y ago

There's an Odd Lots episode on that topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_whcU2-vD4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_whcU2-vD4

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> shock factor is that a phone/networking company is capable of pushing out decent quality EVs already With ICE, the engine is the industry. With EVs, the secret sauce is the battery. Not saying the other parts are easy. But the core of the value add has shifted upstream. And in that domain, China absolutely dominates.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
A lot of the batteries are being provided by LG, Samsung or Panasonic, Samsung even provides LFPs now. So it isn't completely dominated by China yet, although they have a huge lead.
- nickik 3y ago
  But many of the inputs to these battery go threw China as well.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    through. But China isn't really the main source of these materials, you have many in Australia and Bolivia as well. I think they are the main refining source because they do it more cheaply (although...they are just subsidizing it via harm to their environment).
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  Hmm, I don't think that gives an accurate picture, China: > ... has about 70% of the world’s production capacity of cathodes (the part of the cell that receives electrons) and more than 80% of anodes (the part that releases electrons on discharge), and well over half of electrolyte and separator output. Those parts come together to make a lithium-ion battery, more than three quarters of which are made in China and mostly by just two firms — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. and BYD Co.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    CATL and BYD are the top battery producers, after all. But after that you see Japanese and Korean manufacturers. Also, most of the batteries produced by CATL and BYD are going to satisfy internal Chinese demand, whereas most of the cars in the west are using non-Chinese batteries. Tesla using CATL batteries in their entry level Model 3 is a huge breakthrough for Chinese battery manufacturers.

jstarfish 3y ago

I had the same experience with Huawei (tech). Here in America, the narrative is only ever "lol Huawei" but their UX is second only to Apple. Huawei gear is like a Samsung that doesn't find annoying ways to suck.

robbywashere_ 3y ago

I’m curious about how ICE vehicles are culturally embedded in China or if there is a lack there of. People in the states seem to have “feelings” about electric vs ICE. For instance; “rolling coal” do they do that in China?

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> curious about how ICE vehicles are culturally embedded in China or if there is a lack there of China, despite being a major oil producer, is still a net importer [1]. America is a net exporter [2]. To a significant degree, this underlies the cultures' divergent views towards EVs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_China [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-poised-become-net-exporter-crude-oil-2023-2022-12-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-poised-become-net...
- aurareturn 3y ago
  You don't need to go that far. Just look at EV culture between California vs Texas.
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Chinese cities like Beijing have quotas on how many cars Beijingers can buy/drive. The quota is more open to EVs, so you'll see a lot of Beijingers buying EVs because they simply can't win the lottery to buy an ICE (and don't want to wait to do so). Many cities have similar regulations as Beijing, so its not really a "cultural preference" as much as it is "I need a car, and EV is the only one I can get now."
- aurareturn 3y ago
  I think it's simpler than that. I asked a few DiDi drivers why they only use EVs. They basically told me that oil is expensive and electricity is cheaper. It's only profitably to drive EVs as DiDis because of that. China is a net importer of oil. 100% of my DiDi rides in Shenzen and around 80% in rural areas were EVs.

dieselgate 3y ago

Not sure it's been mentioned by others but if you only look at Production Output [1] doesn't China already "dominate" the market? [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/270537/forecast-for-electric-car-production-in-selected-countries/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/270537/forecast-for-elec...

aurareturn 3y ago
I guess it's one thing to see it a chart and another to see it in person. It's a bit hard to describe what I saw without trying to sound like I'm doing marketing for China's EV market.
ZeroGravitas 3y ago
China has had lots of small/cheap/first-gen EVs that westerners would be snobby about as they ramped up and the bare numbers don't reflect that qualitative angle. I would however agree that they do now currently dominate the market for EVs (including the high end and mid market), and that dominance will only expand over the next decade. I can't see any way for EU or US to reverse it now, but they could keep up better if they tried.

nickik 3y ago

Tesla issues with the Cybertruck has nothing to do with it beeing an EV. Tesla manufactures more EVs then any other company from China, outside of maybe BYD. And EV companies in China are not magical, and most arent incredibly good at EV manifacture. Many of them are losing money just as in the West. And there is consolidation in that market, just as in the West. And EV account for like 25% of new cars, so they are not that far ahead. And of course, in China they often have much smaller cars, so pure numbers arent a great comparison depending on what you are analysing.

aurareturn 3y ago
>Tesla manufactures more EVs then any other company from China, outside of maybe BYD. The highest Gigafactory output is Shanghai, by far. To me, this demonstrates China's EV manufacturing prowess, if we didn't know already. >And EV companies in China are not magical, and most arent incredibly good at EV manifacture. Many of them are losing money just as in the West. And there is consolidation in that market, just as in the West. I'm not saying that many of them aren't losing money. What shocked me the most was the relentless pace of EV adoption in China along with just how many different companies design and make EVs there. >And EV account for like 25% of new cars, so they are not that far ahead. And of course, in China they often have much smaller cars, so pure numbers arent a great comparison depending on what you are analysing. The 25% seem to match my observation in non-Shenzen areas, which I mentioned in my original post. But the 25% isn't what is impressive. It's the pace of adoption. SCMP reported the 25% number in May 2023, which is probably where you got it from. But it was only 12.5% in 2022. It doubled within one year. Would it impress you if it's 50% in 2024?
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  > The 25% seem to match my observation in non-Shenzen areas, which I mentioned in my original post. Doesn't Shenzhen have similar regulations as Beijing? If they are providing different and larger quotas for people to register EVs, you'll see more EVs simply because that is what the government is allowing people to buy.
  - 3y ago

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

> So while Tesla is struggling to mass produce the cybertruck, China doesn't seem like it's having any issues mass producing EVs. Aren't China produced Model 3/Y still very popular in China? See https://insideevs.com/news/685905/china-tesla-retail-sales-august2023/#:~:text=Retail%20Sales%20in%20China&text=So%20far%20this%20year%2C%20Tesla,margins%20are%20most%20likely%20affected https://insideevs.com/news/685905/china-tesla-retail-sales-a.... Chinese build quality is getting better, but they still have "problems" producing cars, you just don't hear about them as much as Tesla these days. You'll still see a lot of foreign brands on the road (even if they are made in China due to tariffs). Those government officials aren't going to slum it and not get driven around in Black Audis.

fgsfds028374 3y ago
[dead]
aurareturn 3y ago
Yes, Teslas are still popular in China. Never said they're not. In terms of foreign brands, I mostly only noticed BMWs, Teslas, and a few Audis. In rural areas, some Toyotas. That's about it. The rest are almost all Chinese EV/ICE.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  You see Black Audis in cities with lots of government officials (so Beijing, rather than SZ). Every city is a bit different in their mix. BYD being headquartered in SZ means that it gets to dominate its taxi market (vs. Beijing, where most taxies are Beijing produced Hyundai).
  - lancewiggs 3y ago
    Shenzhen made all its busses electric in 2018, and transitioned its taxi fleet to EV by about 2019-2020, while mopeds were also largely moving over in to EV in early 2019. It's the future.

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago

I still think that BEVs are going to be nothing more than a subsidies propelled niche product. Only one who REALLY wants BEVs to happen are OEM manufactures who invested lot of money into chasing castles in the sky, without actually thinking if people are going to buy more expensive car with lower convenience of use than general ICE. And I am saying that as owner of Skoda Enyaq.

aurareturn 3y ago
I don't see it. Not after being in Shenzen. I just don't see how they will ever go back to ICE. The air quality is significantly better than when I visited around 6 years ago. There are chargers built into seemingly every parking spot in the mall and residential buildings.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
  What you saw there is a result of heavily subsidized electricity.
  - aurareturn 3y ago
    And the government probably subsidizes oil too. It’s easier to build more nuclear power plants than to import more oil in the long term.
    - TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
      I live in Europe. We have 50% tax on gas. Yet charging on public chargers is comparable in price-per-mile, sometimes even more expensive.