6 ms·

As someone from Europe this is malarkey. The US is: * Energy independent * Democratic * Highly educated * Has the best demographics in the developed world

by rapsey 3y ago

As someone from Europe this is malarkey. The US is: * Energy independent * Democratic * Highly educated * Has the best demographics in the developed world * Militarily untouchable * Innovation central Culture wars are a sideshow. For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing.

MadSudaca 3y ago
Not to mention geographically gifted, all neighbors are placated, and #1 place to immigrate too.
candiddevmike 3y ago
> The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing. You sure about that? The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods and families with how divisive each side has become.
- rapsey 3y ago
  Has there been a time where this has not been the case? Because I highly doubt it.
  - quantified 3y ago
    This era is different than the late 20th century. There's no clear dividing line, the movement has been gradual but clear. Whether it's different enough to push the US over the edge is a different story.
- mcphage 3y ago
  > The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods We used to destroy neighborhoods with bulldozers, which is a bit more permanent.
- Turing_Machine 3y ago
  > The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods and families with how divisive each side has become. The Civil War is still the conflict with the highest number of U.S. casualties, by far. Now that's divisive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualt... Besides that, have a look at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unr...
NickC25 3y ago
>For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. China would like a word. A developing country with a highly educated population with a military that has achieved nuclear capacity....that also has developed trade relations with practically every other major economy on the planet. While their style of governance might be somewhat blunt and brutalist, it's also lifted a billion people out of destitute poverty. That builds tremendous trust internally. The USA, on the other hand is trying to recover from having a perpetually bankrupt illiterate spray-tanned wannabe mafia Don pedophile fraudster as their previous president, who very well could get another chance at the Presidency. That president lost the popular vote by several million votes yet still got power. He's been elevated to the status of God by his followers and political party, and is untouchable to the point where he admits serious crimes and walks away a free man to this very day. Oh yeah, 70+ million people want him back in power. We're not in crisis? Yeah, no. This is real.
- rapsey 3y ago
  China has collapsing demographics. Hated by every one of its neighbors. An economy completely dependent on exports. No food security. No energy security. A dictatorship.
  - NickC25 3y ago
    China's demographics are a problem, yeah. I'll give you that all day. Yes, they have a dependent economy, sure, but if you think about it, so does the US - nobody builds physical goods in the US, and American corporations are just as import-needy as China is export-needy. Food security is just a famine away, and The Party wouldn't lose any support even if a few million people died. The Chinese people have ZERO problems overall with a dictatorship. You can't manage to take a billion people out of poverty without one, sadly. The Chinese that I've worked with not only like what the Party has done to their families and communities, but also their local economies. Your view is that it's a brutal dictatorship. Their view is that The Party has put a roof over their heads, put food in their stomachs, developed an economy, modernized their country, educated them (and paid for them to study overseas), and has given them a good life - a much better one than their grandparents ever got a chance at.
Ygg2 3y ago
> Culture wars are a sideshow. For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. Not really, not all countries fall due to external problems. Some crumble from within. US has states with economies of diverging interest (e.g. carbon focused countries), diverging economies, and lots of civil unrest.
quantified 3y ago
Timelines for any apocalypse are notoriously hard to pin down. But this was a remarkably interesting take from 2010 when read in 2023: [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29935385 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29935385]
DueDilligence 3y ago
[dead]
cvccvroomvroom 3y ago
Wishful thinking from afar by someone who isn't an American and who doesn't understand American culture. - The US is, on average, highly anti-intellectual and proud of it. - Spends an unsustainable amount on the military-industrial complex more than the rest of the world combined. - Lacks health insurance, healthcare, and mental healthcare for all as a human right. - Is far more dangerous than any Western European country. The city I live in doesn't have police response for nonviolent crimes until 36-48 hours later, if at all. - Millions of homeless people live on the street. (The true number is far higher than the official estimate.) - A hundred million Americans are furious, barely surviving, and frequently quick to anger over anything. - Politically divided. - 30-40% of the country would rather the whole thing burn down than for things to get better. - Routine acts of mass murder don't happen in a functional society again, and again, and again. - Suicide by habits of despair. - Doddering and corrupt politicians who lack a vision and ambitious project milestones. - Already had one dumb insurrection and can't elect a SOTH. America is on the path to another Civil War, but it will take 0-35 years to come to a head in such a fashion. It won't be invaded or replaced, but it may dissolve into 2-3 alliances of states. There is unlikely to be violence necessarily because leftists lack the arsenal the far-right has, and the state has a far greater capabilities than any private party.* Decline is a slow-boiling frog that goes from reliable postal mail and public park water fountains to haphazard, inconsistency and privatized commons HOAs. The bullshit just piles higher and deeper. ---- * The edge-cases are individuals in 2 a.-friendly states with privately-owned M114 155mm towed artillery, privately-owned Gatling guns (antique and modern), and surprisingly privately-owned 40 mm Bofors L/60 anti-aircraft autocannon with power traverse pre-treaty (each explosive or incendiary shell has to have an DD NFA tax stamp [and usually the permission of the local sheriff] while regular rounds do not). There is a semi-yearly gathering in Arizona to shoot NFA arms. I doubt there are any privately-owned LAWs, Hellfires, hypersonic missiles, Longbow Apaches, or counterbattery radars.
- friend_and_foe 3y ago
  Most of what you're claiming are indeed signs of social problems, and not small ones. But not a single one of them is an indicator that a collapse is imminent. Some of them are counter indicators, for example the strength of the US military. All of them were the norm throughout human history up until very recently, and political structures were relatively stable for most of it. The problems might suck but they aren't signs of imminent political instability. I do think political instability is imminent, but not for any of these reasons. I think there's a weak point, social cohesion, and a pry bar is being used efficiently and cheaply to destroy it. We are being propagandized to hate each other by groups of people who don't have our best interest in mind. All the social programs and military spending in the world can't help when a society no longer views itself as one entity. And calls for unity aren't the answer, they're more of the same propaganda. Those calling for unity do so with an implied qualifier that "unity" happen entirely under their ideological control. There's no desire to compromise, because we don't view those that we would be compromising with as belonging to the same nation.
friend_and_foe 3y ago
There doesn't have to be a superpower alternative, power fills a vacuum, it doesn't spontaneously grow on it's own. The US has a lot going for it, but it's got one thing, the only thing that leads to polticial upheaval, that's bad: the population does not view itself as one people, or even as disparate allied peoples. We have been propagandized to hate each other. Check all the boxes you like, this fact alone has one outcome.

by rapsey 3y ago

MadSudaca 3y ago

Not to mention geographically gifted, all neighbors are placated, and #1 place to immigrate too.

candiddevmike 3y ago

> The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing. You sure about that? The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods and families with how divisive each side has become.

rapsey 3y ago
Has there been a time where this has not been the case? Because I highly doubt it.
- quantified 3y ago
  This era is different than the late 20th century. There's no clear dividing line, the movement has been gradual but clear. Whether it's different enough to push the US over the edge is a different story.
mcphage 3y ago
> The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods We used to destroy neighborhoods with bulldozers, which is a bit more permanent.
Turing_Machine 3y ago
> The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods and families with how divisive each side has become. The Civil War is still the conflict with the highest number of U.S. casualties, by far. Now that's divisive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualt... Besides that, have a look at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unr...

NickC25 3y ago

>For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. China would like a word. A developing country with a highly educated population with a military that has achieved nuclear capacity....that also has developed trade relations with practically every other major economy on the planet. While their style of governance might be somewhat blunt and brutalist, it's also lifted a billion people out of destitute poverty. That builds tremendous trust internally. The USA, on the other hand is trying to recover from having a perpetually bankrupt illiterate spray-tanned wannabe mafia Don pedophile fraudster as their previous president, who very well could get another chance at the Presidency. That president lost the popular vote by several million votes yet still got power. He's been elevated to the status of God by his followers and political party, and is untouchable to the point where he admits serious crimes and walks away a free man to this very day. Oh yeah, 70+ million people want him back in power. We're not in crisis? Yeah, no. This is real.

rapsey 3y ago
China has collapsing demographics. Hated by every one of its neighbors. An economy completely dependent on exports. No food security. No energy security. A dictatorship.
- NickC25 3y ago
  China's demographics are a problem, yeah. I'll give you that all day. Yes, they have a dependent economy, sure, but if you think about it, so does the US - nobody builds physical goods in the US, and American corporations are just as import-needy as China is export-needy. Food security is just a famine away, and The Party wouldn't lose any support even if a few million people died. The Chinese people have ZERO problems overall with a dictatorship. You can't manage to take a billion people out of poverty without one, sadly. The Chinese that I've worked with not only like what the Party has done to their families and communities, but also their local economies. Your view is that it's a brutal dictatorship. Their view is that The Party has put a roof over their heads, put food in their stomachs, developed an economy, modernized their country, educated them (and paid for them to study overseas), and has given them a good life - a much better one than their grandparents ever got a chance at.

Ygg2 3y ago

> Culture wars are a sideshow. For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. Not really, not all countries fall due to external problems. Some crumble from within. US has states with economies of diverging interest (e.g. carbon focused countries), diverging economies, and lots of civil unrest.

quantified 3y ago

Timelines for any apocalypse are notoriously hard to pin down. But this was a remarkably interesting take from 2010 when read in 2023: [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29935385 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29935385]

DueDilligence 3y ago

[dead]

cvccvroomvroom 3y ago

Wishful thinking from afar by someone who isn't an American and who doesn't understand American culture. - The US is, on average, highly anti-intellectual and proud of it. - Spends an unsustainable amount on the military-industrial complex more than the rest of the world combined. - Lacks health insurance, healthcare, and mental healthcare for all as a human right. - Is far more dangerous than any Western European country. The city I live in doesn't have police response for nonviolent crimes until 36-48 hours later, if at all. - Millions of homeless people live on the street. (The true number is far higher than the official estimate.) - A hundred million Americans are furious, barely surviving, and frequently quick to anger over anything. - Politically divided. - 30-40% of the country would rather the whole thing burn down than for things to get better. - Routine acts of mass murder don't happen in a functional society again, and again, and again. - Suicide by habits of despair. - Doddering and corrupt politicians who lack a vision and ambitious project milestones. - Already had one dumb insurrection and can't elect a SOTH. America is on the path to another Civil War, but it will take 0-35 years to come to a head in such a fashion. It won't be invaded or replaced, but it may dissolve into 2-3 alliances of states. There is unlikely to be violence necessarily because leftists lack the arsenal the far-right has, and the state has a far greater capabilities than any private party.* Decline is a slow-boiling frog that goes from reliable postal mail and public park water fountains to haphazard, inconsistency and privatized commons HOAs. The bullshit just piles higher and deeper. ---- * The edge-cases are individuals in 2 a.-friendly states with privately-owned M114 155mm towed artillery, privately-owned Gatling guns (antique and modern), and surprisingly privately-owned 40 mm Bofors L/60 anti-aircraft autocannon with power traverse pre-treaty (each explosive or incendiary shell has to have an DD NFA tax stamp [and usually the permission of the local sheriff] while regular rounds do not). There is a semi-yearly gathering in Arizona to shoot NFA arms. I doubt there are any privately-owned LAWs, Hellfires, hypersonic missiles, Longbow Apaches, or counterbattery radars.

friend_and_foe 3y ago
Most of what you're claiming are indeed signs of social problems, and not small ones. But not a single one of them is an indicator that a collapse is imminent. Some of them are counter indicators, for example the strength of the US military. All of them were the norm throughout human history up until very recently, and political structures were relatively stable for most of it. The problems might suck but they aren't signs of imminent political instability. I do think political instability is imminent, but not for any of these reasons. I think there's a weak point, social cohesion, and a pry bar is being used efficiently and cheaply to destroy it. We are being propagandized to hate each other by groups of people who don't have our best interest in mind. All the social programs and military spending in the world can't help when a society no longer views itself as one entity. And calls for unity aren't the answer, they're more of the same propaganda. Those calling for unity do so with an implied qualifier that "unity" happen entirely under their ideological control. There's no desire to compromise, because we don't view those that we would be compromising with as belonging to the same nation.

friend_and_foe 3y ago

There doesn't have to be a superpower alternative, power fills a vacuum, it doesn't spontaneously grow on it's own. The US has a lot going for it, but it's got one thing, the only thing that leads to polticial upheaval, that's bad: the population does not view itself as one people, or even as disparate allied peoples. We have been propagandized to hate each other. Check all the boxes you like, this fact alone has one outcome.