6 ms·

America Is Headed Toward Collapse

23 points by GranularRecipe 3y ago

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
By Peter Turchin. Elite overproduction hypothesis. Also paywall.
- Muromec 3y ago
  Is there a good critique of the hypothesis? This sounds pretty dated.
  - lycopodiopsida 3y ago
    One thing I've noticed: he is using the number of PhD students as an argument that people need more and more elite credentials to achieve anything. I am not impressed by this part of his hypothesis, since the academic machine simply uses naivety of young people for slave-like, tedious academic work. Especially in US, many of them are foreigners and will leave the country afterwards at some point, as far as I remember. It has a lot to do with how academia is structured (you have to get a PhD if you even consider a career in science) and not with any practical advantages it gets you.
  - mikhailfranco 3y ago
    The last chart I saw for the US showed numbers of STEM graduates increasing for immigrants, but decreasing for native/permres; and non-STEM unemployment was about double that for STEM. Is the over-production of non-STEM graduates decreasing? Is non-STEM unemployment going down? [Here I assume STEM is productive, or increasing productivity, and non-STEM is the pool for BS jobs and the elites - feel free to disagree]
- aebtebeten 3y ago
  How does "elite overproduction" compare to "The Theory and Practice of Oligarchal Collectivism"? (tl;dr of the latter: the high are only ever overthrown by the middle, who —no matter what their ideology may claim as to the low— merely displace, becoming the new high)
kruuuder 3y ago
https://archive.ph/ijzOx https://archive.ph/ijzOx
bradrn 3y ago
Haven’t read the full article, but I note with interest that this is by Peter Turchin, the same person who wrote Secular Cycles. I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve always liked Scott Alexander’s review of that book [0] and its sequel [1]. In particular, Turchin predicted in 2016, that 2020 would form the peak of social conflict in America. This strikes me as eerily close to what has actually happened… [0] https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/12/book-review-secular-cycles/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/12/book-review-secular-cy... [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-discord/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-di...
MadSudaca 3y ago
The article states that two consistent causes of societal collapse are the impoverishment of large sections of the population and overproduction of elites. This two things remind me of one a passage from the Tao Te Ching, translation by Jane English: Not exalting the gifted prevents quarreling. Not collecting treasures prevents stealing. Not seeing desirable things prevents confusion of the heart. The wise therefore rule by emptying hearts and stuffing bellies, by weakening ambitions and strengthening bones. If people lack knowledge and desire, then intellectuals will not try to interfere. If nothing is done, then all will be well.
- mikhailfranco 3y ago
  - No meritocracy. - General impoverishment. - Hide desirable things from the pesky impoverished. - Emptying of hearts (they should be empty:) - Destroy ambition. - Remove education, promote ignorance. - Intellectuals remain aloof, their natural supremacy is assured. Obviously a good strategy for success and human flourishing.
Simulacra 3y ago
People have been calling for the collapse of the air conditioned nightmare(1) for decades. I am very optimistic that America will be just fine. In fact, if you'll pardon me, I think everything that's going on in Congress right now, everything going on on the street, is good for our democracy. We are facing tough questions and as a country we will answer them and move forward. As we always have. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Air-Conditioned_Nightmare https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Air-Conditioned_Nightmar...
rapsey 3y ago
As someone from Europe this is malarkey. The US is: * Energy independent * Democratic * Highly educated * Has the best demographics in the developed world * Militarily untouchable * Innovation central Culture wars are a sideshow. For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing.
- MadSudaca 3y ago
  Not to mention geographically gifted, all neighbors are placated, and #1 place to immigrate too.
- candiddevmike 3y ago
  > The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing. You sure about that? The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods and families with how divisive each side has become.
  - rapsey 3y ago
    Has there been a time where this has not been the case? Because I highly doubt it.
    - quantified 3y ago
      This era is different than the late 20th century. There's no clear dividing line, the movement has been gradual but clear. Whether it's different enough to push the US over the edge is a different story.
  - mcphage 3y ago
    > The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods We used to destroy neighborhoods with bulldozers, which is a bit more permanent.
  - Turing_Machine 3y ago
kevlened 3y ago
Ray Dalio also believes America could be on the verge of decline due to debt, China, and the growing wealth gap https://youtu.be/7TGJRzRSzL4?feature=shared https://youtu.be/7TGJRzRSzL4?feature=shared
as012qwe 3y ago
Is there some room to include the fact that the middle class has access to cutting edge technology - unprecedented medical advances - and incredible access to almost anything? College is expensive but full ivy league College courses are available for free online. Homeless people have cell phones (at least in America). Our society is more diverse than ever (and anywhere). Gay rights are at an all time high. Is it just about home prices? Don't any of these other things matter when evaluating society?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- me_me_me 3y ago
  The biggest problem that nobody talks about and the reason most collapses (or rather revolutions) happened was the grow to top layer of ruling class. Those who dont do anything but extract rents (as in get money for doing nothing). They siphon wealth from middle class, who has less and less wealth to sustain itself and prop up poor. The finance sector is not helping either as it generally doesnt create anything either + markets and ever more abstracted tools that create usless 'middle man' that again siphon wealth without creating anything. And on top of that you have corporate media that are doing everything to prevent class war, by creating cultural and propagating wars. This is putting immense strain on middle class who are tasked with pushing the wheels of the system, with less and less each year.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
jl6 3y ago
> In the past 50 years, despite overall economic growth, the quality of life for most Americans has declined I would like to see some citations for this because there are many things that make up quality of life, and many ways to measure them. The subsequent paragraphs talk about a decline in real wages for "Americans who didn’t have a four-year college degree", but QoL is not all about wages. Consider the example of European countries who typically appear high up in QoL rankings despite having lower median wages.
- sergiosgc 3y ago
  > European countries who typically appear high up in QoL rankings despite having lower median wages. Those have low inequality in personal income, plus a strong social security net. USA lacks both of these characteristics.
  - jl6 3y ago
    Sure, which I think supports the idea that there are things other than wages that influence QoL. We are told here that QoL was better 50 years ago. I wonder how many people, given the choice, would choose to live in 1973 instead of today.
  - Turing_Machine 3y ago
    And yet far more Europeans emigrate to the U.S. (on a proportional basis) than emigrate the other way. Particularly skilled Europeans, but even unskilled ones. Maybe the "QoL rankings" don't accurately reflect what people really want?
    - sergiosgc 3y ago
      Quoting Scott Galloway: The US is a great country to live in if you're young. It is an extremely efficient capitalist society, at the expense of having no social safety net. If you're healthy and on your way to a Phd, you don't really need a safety net. If you're unhealthy and old, you won't pack and move to Denmark. Hence the migration stats.
0max 3y ago
When subjects like "The Fourth Turning" and "Pluto in Aquarius" align with a weird Jungian syncronicity, it only makes me more concerned for the future.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago

By Peter Turchin. Elite overproduction hypothesis. Also paywall.

Muromec 3y ago
Is there a good critique of the hypothesis? This sounds pretty dated.
- lycopodiopsida 3y ago
  One thing I've noticed: he is using the number of PhD students as an argument that people need more and more elite credentials to achieve anything. I am not impressed by this part of his hypothesis, since the academic machine simply uses naivety of young people for slave-like, tedious academic work. Especially in US, many of them are foreigners and will leave the country afterwards at some point, as far as I remember. It has a lot to do with how academia is structured (you have to get a PhD if you even consider a career in science) and not with any practical advantages it gets you.
- mikhailfranco 3y ago
  The last chart I saw for the US showed numbers of STEM graduates increasing for immigrants, but decreasing for native/permres; and non-STEM unemployment was about double that for STEM. Is the over-production of non-STEM graduates decreasing? Is non-STEM unemployment going down? [Here I assume STEM is productive, or increasing productivity, and non-STEM is the pool for BS jobs and the elites - feel free to disagree]
aebtebeten 3y ago
How does "elite overproduction" compare to "The Theory and Practice of Oligarchal Collectivism"? (tl;dr of the latter: the high are only ever overthrown by the middle, who —no matter what their ideology may claim as to the low— merely displace, becoming the new high)

kruuuder 3y ago

https://archive.ph/ijzOx https://archive.ph/ijzOx

bradrn 3y ago

Haven’t read the full article, but I note with interest that this is by Peter Turchin, the same person who wrote Secular Cycles. I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve always liked Scott Alexander’s review of that book [0] and its sequel [1]. In particular, Turchin predicted in 2016, that 2020 would form the peak of social conflict in America. This strikes me as eerily close to what has actually happened… [0] https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/12/book-review-secular-cycles/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/12/book-review-secular-cy... [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-discord/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-di...

MadSudaca 3y ago

The article states that two consistent causes of societal collapse are the impoverishment of large sections of the population and overproduction of elites. This two things remind me of one a passage from the Tao Te Ching, translation by Jane English: Not exalting the gifted prevents quarreling. Not collecting treasures prevents stealing. Not seeing desirable things prevents confusion of the heart. The wise therefore rule by emptying hearts and stuffing bellies, by weakening ambitions and strengthening bones. If people lack knowledge and desire, then intellectuals will not try to interfere. If nothing is done, then all will be well.

mikhailfranco 3y ago
- No meritocracy. - General impoverishment. - Hide desirable things from the pesky impoverished. - Emptying of hearts (they should be empty:) - Destroy ambition. - Remove education, promote ignorance. - Intellectuals remain aloof, their natural supremacy is assured. Obviously a good strategy for success and human flourishing.

Simulacra 3y ago

People have been calling for the collapse of the air conditioned nightmare(1) for decades. I am very optimistic that America will be just fine. In fact, if you'll pardon me, I think everything that's going on in Congress right now, everything going on on the street, is good for our democracy. We are facing tough questions and as a country we will answer them and move forward. As we always have. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Air-Conditioned_Nightmare https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Air-Conditioned_Nightmar...

rapsey 3y ago

As someone from Europe this is malarkey. The US is: * Energy independent * Democratic * Highly educated * Has the best demographics in the developed world * Militarily untouchable * Innovation central Culture wars are a sideshow. For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years. The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing.

MadSudaca 3y ago
Not to mention geographically gifted, all neighbors are placated, and #1 place to immigrate too.
candiddevmike 3y ago
> The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing. You sure about that? The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods and families with how divisive each side has become.
- rapsey 3y ago
  Has there been a time where this has not been the case? Because I highly doubt it.
  - quantified 3y ago
    This era is different than the late 20th century. There's no clear dividing line, the movement has been gradual but clear. Whether it's different enough to push the US over the edge is a different story.
- mcphage 3y ago
  > The current political climate has destroyed neighborhoods We used to destroy neighborhoods with bulldozers, which is a bit more permanent.
- Turing_Machine 3y ago

kevlened 3y ago

Ray Dalio also believes America could be on the verge of decline due to debt, China, and the growing wealth gap https://youtu.be/7TGJRzRSzL4?feature=shared https://youtu.be/7TGJRzRSzL4?feature=shared

as012qwe 3y ago

Is there some room to include the fact that the middle class has access to cutting edge technology - unprecedented medical advances - and incredible access to almost anything? College is expensive but full ivy league College courses are available for free online. Homeless people have cell phones (at least in America). Our society is more diverse than ever (and anywhere). Gay rights are at an all time high. Is it just about home prices? Don't any of these other things matter when evaluating society?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
me_me_me 3y ago
The biggest problem that nobody talks about and the reason most collapses (or rather revolutions) happened was the grow to top layer of ruling class. Those who dont do anything but extract rents (as in get money for doing nothing). They siphon wealth from middle class, who has less and less wealth to sustain itself and prop up poor. The finance sector is not helping either as it generally doesnt create anything either + markets and ever more abstracted tools that create usless 'middle man' that again siphon wealth without creating anything. And on top of that you have corporate media that are doing everything to prevent class war, by creating cultural and propagating wars. This is putting immense strain on middle class who are tasked with pushing the wheels of the system, with less and less each year.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

jl6 3y ago

> In the past 50 years, despite overall economic growth, the quality of life for most Americans has declined I would like to see some citations for this because there are many things that make up quality of life, and many ways to measure them. The subsequent paragraphs talk about a decline in real wages for "Americans who didn’t have a four-year college degree", but QoL is not all about wages. Consider the example of European countries who typically appear high up in QoL rankings despite having lower median wages.

sergiosgc 3y ago
> European countries who typically appear high up in QoL rankings despite having lower median wages. Those have low inequality in personal income, plus a strong social security net. USA lacks both of these characteristics.
- jl6 3y ago
  Sure, which I think supports the idea that there are things other than wages that influence QoL. We are told here that QoL was better 50 years ago. I wonder how many people, given the choice, would choose to live in 1973 instead of today.
- Turing_Machine 3y ago
  And yet far more Europeans emigrate to the U.S. (on a proportional basis) than emigrate the other way. Particularly skilled Europeans, but even unskilled ones. Maybe the "QoL rankings" don't accurately reflect what people really want?
  - sergiosgc 3y ago
    Quoting Scott Galloway: The US is a great country to live in if you're young. It is an extremely efficient capitalist society, at the expense of having no social safety net. If you're healthy and on your way to a Phd, you don't really need a safety net. If you're unhealthy and old, you won't pack and move to Denmark. Hence the migration stats.

0max 3y ago

When subjects like "The Fourth Turning" and "Pluto in Aquarius" align with a weird Jungian syncronicity, it only makes me more concerned for the future.