4 ms·

I can't tell if Rivian is doing really well, or really badly. Deliveries up, reviews of the product are fantastic, production problems being resolved. Repair

I can't tell if Rivian is doing really well, or really badly. Deliveries up, reviews of the product are fantastic, production problems being resolved. Repair reports of 14k+ quotes, over engineering that adds weight for no benefit, burning through cash, production issues.

TehCorwiz 3y ago
Regarding the over-engineering; is it possible some of that is to avoid very expensive patents by other manufacturers?
bastawhiz 3y ago
I've been really tempted to get one and really hesitant for exactly the reasons. I'll wait, but I think Rivian is doing exactly what they need to be doing. The vehicles are on the road and they're reaching economies of scale. You can't be a car company if you're not selling cars. If the repairs and parts are affordable but you can't get the car in your driveway then it literally doesn't matter one way or the other. Scaling up isn't a problem that can't be solved from where they are now, and I think it could be done within the span of a year.
whyenot 3y ago
It looks like their losses per vehicle have been decreasing every quarter. I think they are on the right trajectory, I just hope they go positive before the money runs out! I have been seeing an awful lot of them on the streets in the Bay Area. It seems like there has been a real increase just within the past few months. I have considered buying one for myself, but decided to wait until their first model update when hopefully most of their remaining quality and reliability issues will be fixed.
- markkanof 3y ago
  Same, been seeing quite a few of them around Portland, Oregon as well. Would definitely get one if I was in the market for a vehicle right now. I really like the form factor of a pickup or SUV vs. what Tesla has to offer.
  - mocha_nate 3y ago
    Same in Austin, TX. Although I bought stock so can’t decide if I’m just seeing because I’m on the lookout or if there are actually more and more on the road. I don’t own one, but the SUVs look really nice. For some reason I don’t like the truck design even though it’s very similar to SUV.
bo1024 3y ago
I see commentary that all their R1 vehicles so far are essentially for building their reputation, not financially beneficial, and Rivian will start making money for real when the R2 releases in a couple years. And maybe on the Amazon van. I don't know if the numbers support that, but I think the R1 is definitely a steal even at the current prices for the amazing package you get. The problem for Rivian is that most people don't actually want all that value i.e. track racing ability and off roading ability at the same time. So the flagship vehicle builds their brand but a lower priced compromise vehicle would be needed to make money.
- jillesvangurp 3y ago
  Rivian is following a similar strategy as Tesla when they were perpetually running out of money but were growing rapidly. They don't have a demand problem and they don't need to worry about what "most people" want because more people want what they have right now than they can actually produce cars for. What they have right now is of course a premium car aimed at the most lucrative segment of the market and people are lining up to get one. Their core problem is building more cars and do it cheaper. Scaling production will eventually get them to the point where they become profitable. This requires reducing cost and working on manufacturing processes. That's a capital intensive business and the risk is that capital runs out before the company becomes profitable. That's why the stock is down. Several other EV startups have similar issues. And actually several legacy car manufacturers aren't doing much better but simply have more capital. Quite a few EVs in the market are being sold below cost price right now. Once Rivian nails profitability is when they can start worrying about mass market appeal. They are clearly starting to think about that. Tesla did the same thing until they went mass market with the model 3 and y. And even those had a waiting list. The model 3 ramp up nearly killed the company. But once they fixed that it became a revenue machine. Before that they did the model s in much smaller numbers and the roadster in even smaller numbers. They did not become profitable until just a few years ago. Now they are printing money of course and making millions of vehicles. And they are running circles around their competition in terms of cost. Rivian looks like it might be on track to replicate that success but they have some way to go.
- local_crmdgeon 3y ago
rqtwteye 3y ago
I see some Rivians when I go shopping and I just think they are obscenely big. They often basically use up two parking spots. I don’t think that’s the direction we want to go. Same complaint for the Tesla Cybertruck.
- markkanof 3y ago
  Are you just saying that no company should be selling pickup trucks or SUVs?
  - jmtulloss 3y ago
    This is probably the case. The truck is between the size of a Tacoma and an F150, and the SUV is about the same size as a Tahoe or a Range Rover. Certainly not small, but not strangely large for the US.
  - MattGrommes 3y ago
    Pickup trucks haven't always been bigger than parking places. We should be selling reasonably sized vehicles of all needed configurations, not these monstrosities.
    - local_crmdgeon 3y ago
      My 20 year old half-ton pickup is larger than a Rivian. People just didn't notice until urbanism became a bigger topic. Which is good! Urbanism is dope. I'm a big urbanist. I also just deal with finding a spot because I like my pickup.
  - cheschire 3y ago
    I'm guessing you either don't remember or didn't see what SUVs and light pickup trucks looked like in the 80's and 90's, but there is absolutely a lower bound on size that is way below where we are today.
  - caycep 3y ago
    Yes, or at least tax them more appropriately to the cost to road safety, energy consumption and to society in general.
_ea1k 3y ago
> I can't tell if Rivian is doing really well, or really badly. They are doing both! Their production ramp is fantastic and they have three products that their customers love! But they also have significant engineering and production problems that are causing them to be too costly. That, combined with the reality of being a low volume maker in a business that demands high volumes for positive cash flow, means that they are burning money quickly too. This all reconciled around 2026 when R2 comes to market. It is make or break for the company.

TehCorwiz 3y ago

Regarding the over-engineering; is it possible some of that is to avoid very expensive patents by other manufacturers?

bastawhiz 3y ago

I've been really tempted to get one and really hesitant for exactly the reasons. I'll wait, but I think Rivian is doing exactly what they need to be doing. The vehicles are on the road and they're reaching economies of scale. You can't be a car company if you're not selling cars. If the repairs and parts are affordable but you can't get the car in your driveway then it literally doesn't matter one way or the other. Scaling up isn't a problem that can't be solved from where they are now, and I think it could be done within the span of a year.

whyenot 3y ago

It looks like their losses per vehicle have been decreasing every quarter. I think they are on the right trajectory, I just hope they go positive before the money runs out! I have been seeing an awful lot of them on the streets in the Bay Area. It seems like there has been a real increase just within the past few months. I have considered buying one for myself, but decided to wait until their first model update when hopefully most of their remaining quality and reliability issues will be fixed.

markkanof 3y ago
Same, been seeing quite a few of them around Portland, Oregon as well. Would definitely get one if I was in the market for a vehicle right now. I really like the form factor of a pickup or SUV vs. what Tesla has to offer.
- mocha_nate 3y ago
  Same in Austin, TX. Although I bought stock so can’t decide if I’m just seeing because I’m on the lookout or if there are actually more and more on the road. I don’t own one, but the SUVs look really nice. For some reason I don’t like the truck design even though it’s very similar to SUV.

bo1024 3y ago

I see commentary that all their R1 vehicles so far are essentially for building their reputation, not financially beneficial, and Rivian will start making money for real when the R2 releases in a couple years. And maybe on the Amazon van. I don't know if the numbers support that, but I think the R1 is definitely a steal even at the current prices for the amazing package you get. The problem for Rivian is that most people don't actually want all that value i.e. track racing ability and off roading ability at the same time. So the flagship vehicle builds their brand but a lower priced compromise vehicle would be needed to make money.

jillesvangurp 3y ago
Rivian is following a similar strategy as Tesla when they were perpetually running out of money but were growing rapidly. They don't have a demand problem and they don't need to worry about what "most people" want because more people want what they have right now than they can actually produce cars for. What they have right now is of course a premium car aimed at the most lucrative segment of the market and people are lining up to get one. Their core problem is building more cars and do it cheaper. Scaling production will eventually get them to the point where they become profitable. This requires reducing cost and working on manufacturing processes. That's a capital intensive business and the risk is that capital runs out before the company becomes profitable. That's why the stock is down. Several other EV startups have similar issues. And actually several legacy car manufacturers aren't doing much better but simply have more capital. Quite a few EVs in the market are being sold below cost price right now. Once Rivian nails profitability is when they can start worrying about mass market appeal. They are clearly starting to think about that. Tesla did the same thing until they went mass market with the model 3 and y. And even those had a waiting list. The model 3 ramp up nearly killed the company. But once they fixed that it became a revenue machine. Before that they did the model s in much smaller numbers and the roadster in even smaller numbers. They did not become profitable until just a few years ago. Now they are printing money of course and making millions of vehicles. And they are running circles around their competition in terms of cost. Rivian looks like it might be on track to replicate that success but they have some way to go.
local_crmdgeon 3y ago

rqtwteye 3y ago

I see some Rivians when I go shopping and I just think they are obscenely big. They often basically use up two parking spots. I don’t think that’s the direction we want to go. Same complaint for the Tesla Cybertruck.

markkanof 3y ago
Are you just saying that no company should be selling pickup trucks or SUVs?
- jmtulloss 3y ago
  This is probably the case. The truck is between the size of a Tacoma and an F150, and the SUV is about the same size as a Tahoe or a Range Rover. Certainly not small, but not strangely large for the US.
- MattGrommes 3y ago
  Pickup trucks haven't always been bigger than parking places. We should be selling reasonably sized vehicles of all needed configurations, not these monstrosities.
  - local_crmdgeon 3y ago
    My 20 year old half-ton pickup is larger than a Rivian. People just didn't notice until urbanism became a bigger topic. Which is good! Urbanism is dope. I'm a big urbanist. I also just deal with finding a spot because I like my pickup.
- cheschire 3y ago
  I'm guessing you either don't remember or didn't see what SUVs and light pickup trucks looked like in the 80's and 90's, but there is absolutely a lower bound on size that is way below where we are today.
- caycep 3y ago
  Yes, or at least tax them more appropriately to the cost to road safety, energy consumption and to society in general.

_ea1k 3y ago

> I can't tell if Rivian is doing really well, or really badly. They are doing both! Their production ramp is fantastic and they have three products that their customers love! But they also have significant engineering and production problems that are causing them to be too costly. That, combined with the reality of being a low volume maker in a business that demands high volumes for positive cash flow, means that they are burning money quickly too. This all reconciled around 2026 when R2 comes to market. It is make or break for the company.