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Waymo Layoffs
- latchkey 3y agoPreviously: Waymo is scaling back its self-driving truck ambitions https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36886514 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36886514 (July 26, 2023 — 3 points, 1 comments) Alphabet’s Waymo cuts more than 100 jobs in second round of layoffs https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34988618 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34988618 (March 1, 2023 — 37 points, 7 comments)
- rnk 3y agoIs there a conclusion that the taxi service kind of works and just needs to fix a few minor issues around the edges fixed to work in limited city use in many cities, or is it so far away it's not even close?
- piffey 3y agoHonestly with Curb in NYC have been more than happy with taxis. Wish it would be adopted in more cities.
- TulliusCicero 3y agoWhat's Curb relative to Uber/Lyft or legacy taxis?
- jmknoll 3y agoI only know Curb as a booking app for regular taxis. It’s generally less expensive than Lyft/Uber in Manhattan. I’m not aware of any connection it has to Waymo though.
- smcin 3y agoSeems to be the legacy taxi industry fighting back with somewhat ride-share-like pricing ("avoid surge pricing"), "professional drivers, more thorough background checks and vehicle inspections", "price shown in app will still be an estimate, not upfront pricing". Currently in NYC, CHI, DC, PHL, MIA, FLL, LA. [0]: https://www.gocurb.com/ https://www.gocurb.com/ [1]: https://www.ridester.com/curb-app-work/ https://www.ridester.com/curb-app-work/
- stefan_ 3y agoYes, it’s going to be forever 95% done by the looks of it
- TulliusCicero 3y agoImpression I get is that the fundamentals work okay -- which is a huge accomplishment in and of itself -- but there are still enough edge cases that scaling up is hard, and opening up a new city takes substantial effort. Videos that show up on the r/self drivingcars subredddit show increasing fluency/confidence in driving from Waymo. But there's always going to be socially weird situations in cities where the answer is to benignly break the law, and it's not clear how well SDC's will ever do with those.
- gghffguhvc 3y agoI’ve taken 60+ Waymo trips in SF and much prefer them over Uber. There are rough edges but I love playing music I like, the smooth and consistent driving, the same model car each time. I’m an early adopter kind of person and can live with the occasional “why pick me up over there?” Like stuff. I’m not affiliated with Waymo. Just someone who got early access by joining the waitlist.
- smcin 3y agoTranslation: "limited city use in [selected] cities" seems to mean: - no driving on freeway with passengers (that alone is a huge limitation. You couldn't get to most major airports (in any sensible time) under that limitation. Add in trucks, rush-hour, ripple congestion, lane-splitting motorcyclists.) But presumably also, Waymo and Cruise don't want to pick an all-out war with human drivers working for Uber. Not yet. - if a driverless car gets confused or can't handle a situation on a city street, it can slow and stop completely and block traffic (and wait for emergency responders to intervene, or wait minutes/hours for remote human driver to override), which is "merely" an annoyance to locals. Whereas doing that on a freeway could injure or kill large numbers of people. - "selected cities" seems to currently only be southwestern and southern US (SF, PHX, LA, AUS), warm and mostly clear skies, nothing regularly getting near a bad freeze or with bad rain/ snow/ slush/ storms/ gusts/ visibility/ unpredictable ice and skidding [0]. - only cities with well-maintained signage, roads, road markings which can be imaged reliably etc. This is an implicit limit on the locality's income and tax base. - the recent Cruise secondary incident (near-fatality from a hit-and-run caused by a human-driven car) in SF and other incidents with pedestrians, cyclists and human drivers. "Just fix a few minor issues around the edges" will have a different meaning if you're a pedestrian, cyclist or transit user near a high-traffic street. This could easily become a political issue in some localities. Or maybe driverless will only be allowed in bus lanes or certain lanes of certain streets, or at certain times of day, or not near school pickup/dropoff, or through residential areas (like in 2011 when there were deaths of pedestrians in East Palo Alto residential areas due to drivers rat-running, exacerbated by the rush-hour to Facebook and on 101[1]). [0]: https://waymo.com/faq/ https://waymo.com/faq/ [1]: https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2011/09/28/girl-7-killed-in-east-palo-alto-crash https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2011/09/28/girl-7-killed-in-...
- Tempest1981 3y ago> southwestern and southern US (SF, ...) I never considered SF as southwestern, but Wikipedia says you're correct
- crazygringo 3y agoI don't think so. According to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States#Regional_geography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States#Reg... the southwestern US extends to the Sonoran and Mojave deserts on the west side. It lists the largest cities of the southwest as Phoenix, Las Vegas, El Paso, Albuquerque, and Tucson. SF is not in there...
- _xivi 3y ago> fix a few minor issues It's always the last 20% that are demanding. You're left with tricky edge cases, legal battles, and operational challenges.
- dmead 3y agoIt's not even close. This era of AI is an adventure in scale and compute density.
- TradingPlaces 3y agoIt definitely works. I was in one just yesterday for over a half hour and it’s a pretty smooth thing, and in some ways better than a human driver (e.g., always yields to pedestrians entering a crosswalk, never exceeds speed limit,etc.) But both Waymo and Cruise lose money on every ride. All the sensors and on-board compute are expensive, and also the R&D, and the 3D maps. Both services rely on detailed 3D maps of the areas they service, and are geofenced to that. So right now, it does not scale yet until they can bring down the costs, and/or reduce reliance on those maps, which take a long time to make. Videos of my rides: https://youtu.be/q-l23cMs1Fs?si=R1hjPQokqAMCff_T https://youtu.be/q-l23cMs1Fs?si=R1hjPQokqAMCff_T https://youtu.be/FZTWxDe1i6g?si=mGbcixGTKCQchnVv https://youtu.be/FZTWxDe1i6g?si=mGbcixGTKCQchnVv
- gghffguhvc 3y agoIf they could 100x the number of cars and trips in SF then the cost of maps per ride would be significantly lower.
- TradingPlaces 3y agoThere are only 808k people in SF https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/sanfranciscocitycalifornia,sanfranciscocountycalifornia/PST045222 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/sanfranciscocit...
- 0xDEAFBEAD 3y ago>All the sensors and on-board compute are expensive, and also the R&D, and the 3D maps. Both services rely on detailed 3D maps of the areas they service, and are geofenced to that. I think we need to split this into fixed vs variable costs. It's hard for me to believe that the sensors+compute is more expensive than a human. Those sound like the variable costs. I'd be surprised if selling an additional ride causes e.g. Cruise to lose a bit of money, but I'd love to be corrected.
- TradingPlaces 3y agoI have been told it loses money by Google employees. Not just sensors+compute. R&D and the map-making are substantial costs. Waymo is reported in “Other Bets” which had $1.1 billion in revenue in 2022 and $6.1 billion in operating losses.
- ajhurliman 3y agoI use it frequently, I prefer it to human drivers. They’ve definitely nailed it.
- superfrank 3y agoI was down in San Francisco a month ago and my friend has access so we took Waymo's everywhere. We took about 10 over the weekend and never had any issue, even when other cars were doing weird things. From my limited experience I felt like they're pretty solid in the city. The only hiccup I can remember was being in an intersection (past the crosswalk) to make an unprotected left and while we were waiting the light turned yellow. A human driver would likely wait for the light to go red and then make the turn, but the Waymo gave up almost immediately and instead decided to circle the block to make the left (three rights). A little odd, but I never felt unsafe. If we had Waymo where I live I'd take it everywhere. It's slightly cheaper than an Uber, a nicer car, a better driver than some Uber's I've been in, and there's something nice about not having to interact with a real person.
- disqard 3y ago> and there's something nice about not having to interact with a real person This is the end-goal, I guess? Not just avoiding a taxi/Uber driver, but avoiding as much human interaction as possible. Is it surprising that technology is (collectively) being evolved to isolate humans from each other? AFAICT, we can't have our cake and eat it too -- a completely frictionless life is a zero human-interaction life, which would be very sad. Edit: I fall into this trap too, but I'm aware that every time I choose convenience over friction, I'm losing a tiny bit of my Human-ness.
- superfrank 3y agoI don't mind interacting with people, but the vast majority of my interactions with ride share drivers are not meaningful interactions. I get in the car, say "hi" and then pull out my phone. A large portion of the time my drivers are on the phone or have airpods in. I would gladly trade the 1% of rides where I had a decent conversation with the driver to remove the 99% where I we both try to make forced small talk or we both awkwardly sit in silence. Plus, not having to worry about me and my friends annoying our driver when we're drunkly coming back from the bars at 2am is such a win.
- pcthrowaway 3y ago
- huytersd 3y agoI’ve tried it in San Fran and phoenix and they work really well. I hope Google isn’t going to nope out of this.
- duxup 3y agoI can’t imagine three layoffs in a year is great for morale. Is there a reason they chose this sort of trickling layoffs approach?
- dheera 3y agoEvery time you all drive prices of stocks down, layoffs happen. Think twice before you drive the prices of a stock down again, you're part of the cause. Consider selling at a higher price than you bought the stock for. If you drive stock prices down three times a year, layoffs will happen three times a year. If you drive stock prices up, they'll go on a hiring spree. It's that simple.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- meiraleal 3y agoThis simplistic, wrong (and juvenile) reasoning is the caricature of the tech bubble bursting again.
- dixie_land 3y agoApes together strong!
- Uehreka 3y ago> you all Who all? This isn’t exactly a short-selling subreddit.
- AlbertCory 3y agoUsually I instinctively want to upvote anything that's gotten such a beatdown. In this case, though, it's deserved. Nobody can "drive the price down." That's a futile pursuit, and would be illegal if it worked.
- ipaddr 3y agoUnless you are the CEO it's hard to personally drive down a stock.
- thinkerswell 3y agoAt this point how long before the fed starts to lower rates.
- WillPostForFood 3y agoLayoffs are not an unintended side effect or overshoot, they are part of the goal: slow down the economy. Inflation has been ticking back up for the last few months, so don't expect a cut anytime soon.
- thinkerswell 3y agoOf course, but the question was getting at how long before the fed blinks.
- meiraleal 3y agoNot before most big tech downsize a lot. There is something bigger going on.
- adrr 3y agoThey over hired during the pandemic.
- meiraleal 3y agoIf the problem was just that, the CEOs would be super happy. The bigger problem is that most big techs can't hold their absurdly huge revenue (with their crap services), much less grow it. At first they can cut costs to keep the profit high but then they are losing morale, revenue gets impacted more, brand gets affected. It is a downward spiral. It will only get worse when the fines start to come from every country they have operations.
- flatline 3y agoThere is no clear path for growth. We have already written software for about every common need. The industry is finally somewhat mature, and it is hard to see how it is sustainable at this scale.
- foxandmouse 3y agoTo anyone following this space, this was inevitable. Also, What is going on at google these days, I don't see them having a competitive advantage in any industry after this decade..
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- janalsncm 3y agoIn some sense, everything that has happened was inevitable. We colloquially speak of the “possible but didn’t happen” as if it’s very different from and the “impossible” but in fact those things which didn’t happen were impossible in retrospect. Maybe there is only the “actual”.
- andsoitis 3y agointeresting framing for evaluating claims of free will
- rvz 3y agoJust goes to show that even Google over-leveraged on hiring and is shutting down products left, right and center. The AI race to zero is not helping them at all as well as the anti-trust trial of the decade. They will survive, but broken up. So more layoffs to come, unfortunately from the correction of the zero interest rate phenomenon with decades long QE all coming to an end.
- xnx 3y agoDoes Waymo still have two CEOs? Seems like an unusual situation that isn't sustainable if tough decisions need to get made.
- FooBarBizBazz 3y agoLayoffs in what's supposed to be an emerging growth industry? Looks like a signal that the growth opportunity isn't actually there.
- preommr 3y agoMore like Google can't stop failing. * They dropped the ball with LLMs and OpenAI * They dropped the ball with VR/AR - mark my words, apple's vision pro is going to be incredibly successful. Apple doesn't miss, they manage to fully execute on ideas like the ipod, iphone, etc. that other companies know people want but can't fully deliver. * Now they're going to drop the ball on potentially dominating the transportation market.
- iaseiadit 3y agoVR/AR has been a disaster for every single company that’s gone anywhere near it. A bit too soon to claim that Apple cracked it.
- wigglewoggle 3y agoNot enough numbers to trigger disclosure laws? Previous round was dozens? So we're talking 15 employees?
- swyx 3y agoin TFA: > Waymo employed around 2,500 employees at the start of the year, according to reports. More than 200 were axed in the two layoff rounds earlier this year, but the number of remaining Waymo staffers following this cut is unclear. make reasonable assumptions for natural attrition
- wigglewoggle 3y agoThat's talking about rounds earlier in the year. TFA mentions the numbers for this one are unclear.
- up2isomorphism 3y agoDoes it make money? No Does it make you drive your car safely while sleeping ? No Does learn to drive such a hard thing? No Then why do we need this kind of company? I don’t know.
- echelon 3y ago> Then why do we need this kind of company? I don’t know. Why bother doing anything at all with this attitude? Let's freeze in place and wait until the sun dies out. I don't know. To me, Waymo is exciting because it could unlock a next step function of capabilities, patterns, and economics. Everything we take for granted in transportation -- highways, traffic signals, parking, traffic itself -- we could potentially get to reevaluate a lot of previously-held assumptions. The second- and third-order effects could be wild. Maybe it'll all go bust. It's worth a shot, though. The rewards, if they succeed, will be tremendous.
- riku_iki 3y ago> It's worth a shot, though. waymo is 14 years old, maybe it is enough for a shot and time to move on something more proven? Like poor billions into smarter public transportation for example.
- robotburrito 3y agoAgreed. Cars still destroy cities. No matter if they are driven by a human or not.
- 2c2c2c 3y agothis comment would make sense if there werent a fleet of 100 cruise and 100 waymo sucessfully operating for months in SF now
- jeffreygoesto 3y ago100 people is about one train carriage. That is not a lot of bang for the buck.
- numpad0 3y agoAre there a lot to be done near term in SDC, or has it been stagnating for a while?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- agnosticmantis 3y agoIt's a shame that companies that are actually creating great tech and solving difficult problems are shrinking while some vaporware nonsense raises a billion: https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/28/23893939/jony-ive-openai-sam-altman-iphone-of-artificial-intelligence-device https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/28/23893939/jony-ive-openai-...
- bananapub 3y agoultimately, Google is just not run very well and having a firehose of cash for twenty years meant no one noticed