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There's a lot of bullshit in this space. There isn't enough lithium in the world to move everyone over to electric. 80% of grid still runs on coal so it's not c

There's a lot of bullshit in this space. There isn't enough lithium in the world to move everyone over to electric. 80% of grid still runs on coal so it's not clean either. I'll also head for heavy duty towing electric is not where's it at, and forget EV 18 wheelers. The simple truth is gas is a precious resource and we are wasting it. We need more public transportation and more sane use. Notice I didn't say EVs. They create another set of problems.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> isn't enough lithium in the world to move everyone over to electric Source? > 80% of grid still runs on coal 30% globally [1], 11% in America [2]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_cons... [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States
- adventured 3y ago
  That appears to be total energy, rather than grid specific (per the parent). This is probably a better reference (the gist is the same of course, coal was 19.5%): https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 "In 2022, about 4,243 billion kilowatthours (kWh) (or about 4.24 trillion kWh) of electricity were generated at utility-scale electricity generation facilities in the United States.1 About 60% of this electricity generation was from fossil fuels—coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other gases. About 18% was from nuclear energy, and about 22% was from renewable energy sources."
  - jcranmer 3y ago
    EIA has a nice flow graph that shows energy sources and sinks here: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_energy_2022.pdf https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_... Coal was about 10% of total US energy production in 2022, 27% of total US electricity production.
mschuster91 3y ago
> There isn't enough lithium in the world to move everyone over to electric. There is [1]. > I'll also head for heavy duty towing electric is not where's it at, and forget EV 18 wheelers. Heavy duty, long distance hauling is something where trains excel at. It's one thing for short-distance distribution (i.e. in a city) where it's infeasible to serve industry and local distribution by rail, but everything else? We figured that stuff out almost a century ago. [1] https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/lithium-supply-batteries-electric-vehicles/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/li...
- gjsman-1000 3y ago
  Geologically, yes. As for actual availability, it would take the world's entire supply of Lithium produced per year, just to allow for half of new cars sold in the US alone be electric. That's how far behind our Lithium mining is, and as your own article says, scaling that out without environmental disasters or human rights abuses will be a challenge (and, potentially, infeasible).
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    There were 6 million EV's sold in China in 2022. There were only 3 million gasoline vehicles sold in the US in 2022 so there is obviously enough Lithium refinery capacity for the entire US market at least.
    - gjsman-1000 3y ago
      Wrong. “It is estimated that the U.S. alone will need 500,000 metric tons per year of unrefined lithium by 2034 just to power EVs. The U.S. produces just a fraction of that today. The current global production of lithium in 2020 was about 440,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE, contains about 18% of pure lithium), and not all of that is in pure enough form for batteries, according to Chris Doornbos, president, and CEO of E3 Metals Corp, a lithium extraction firm located in Calgary, Canada, which plans to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide.” As he said, we are not just below the amount necessary, but much of what is produced can't meet spec. https://www.onecharge.biz/blog/u-s-role-in-global-lithium-battery-manufacturing/ https://www.onecharge.biz/blog/u-s-role-in-global-lithium-ba...
_ea1k 3y ago
I do expect that EV 18 wheelers will have their biggest strength in areas where distances traveled aren't always particularly large. Transporting gasoline and diesel to stores perhaps...
standardUser 3y ago
The idea that because EVs need electricity from the grid, and the grid itself is not perfectly clean at this moment in time, is somehow a flaw or a problem is absurd on its face. An electric car can, over the course of its life, continue to get cleaner and cleaner energy as the grid it pulls from gets cleaner and cleaner. That's a win all around. It's also the entire fucking point. Any gas-burning cars produced can only burn gas and will never be cleaner (save for some fanciful conversions).
- datavirtue 3y ago
  Trucks. Trucks. Trucks. You keep ignoring trucks. They get every god damned thing done and cannot operate on electric until lighter and more energy dense batteries are developed. A lot lighter and a lot more energy dense by several factors. We have the mystical 50mpg car everyone dreamed about thirty years ago. No one will buy them. They need a truck.
  - abenga 3y ago
    So because trucks cannot be electric at the moment (doubtful, btw, but let's accept this premise), we should not try to electrify other parts of the global fleet? Every little bit helps, plus the research that goes into that will create these lighter and more energy dense batteries you speak of.
jeffbee 3y ago
There's way more than enough lithium to more than double the fleet MPG, though, by mandating > 45MPG for all light vehicles, which effectively mandates hybrids.
stkdump 3y ago
Even ignoring that your facts are wrong, even the high energy use at construction, the bad energy mix in electricity used to power EVs combined with the charging inefficiencies and the fact that EVs are considerably heavier, etc. ICE cars are still worse in terms of carbon emissions. And the size of the gap will only increase from now on.
brandonagr2 3y ago
Why would you forget about EV 18 wheelers? https://jalopnik.com/tesla-semi-wins-range-test-against-volvo-freightliner-1850925925 https://jalopnik.com/tesla-semi-wins-range-test-against-volv...
flashback2199 3y ago
Mining has a very long history of finding more of a resource when more became in demand. I'm sure they will find more lithium, and invent more creative ways to mine difficult deposits we already know about. It's usually a bad bet to bet against that. Exhibit A is "Peak Oil," which was that oil supplies peaked in the 70s and the world was going to run out of oil. Side note, I wish I knew how to invest in these kinds of realizations so I could actually make money on them instead of just rambling on forums, lol! Queue "it's already priced in" in 3, 2, 1...

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> isn't enough lithium in the world to move everyone over to electric Source? > 80% of grid still runs on coal 30% globally [1], 11% in America [2]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_cons... [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

adventured 3y ago
That appears to be total energy, rather than grid specific (per the parent). This is probably a better reference (the gist is the same of course, coal was 19.5%): https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 "In 2022, about 4,243 billion kilowatthours (kWh) (or about 4.24 trillion kWh) of electricity were generated at utility-scale electricity generation facilities in the United States.1 About 60% of this electricity generation was from fossil fuels—coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other gases. About 18% was from nuclear energy, and about 22% was from renewable energy sources."
- jcranmer 3y ago
  EIA has a nice flow graph that shows energy sources and sinks here: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_energy_2022.pdf https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_... Coal was about 10% of total US energy production in 2022, 27% of total US electricity production.

mschuster91 3y ago

> There isn't enough lithium in the world to move everyone over to electric. There is [1]. > I'll also head for heavy duty towing electric is not where's it at, and forget EV 18 wheelers. Heavy duty, long distance hauling is something where trains excel at. It's one thing for short-distance distribution (i.e. in a city) where it's infeasible to serve industry and local distribution by rail, but everything else? We figured that stuff out almost a century ago. [1] https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/lithium-supply-batteries-electric-vehicles/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/li...

gjsman-1000 3y ago
Geologically, yes. As for actual availability, it would take the world's entire supply of Lithium produced per year, just to allow for half of new cars sold in the US alone be electric. That's how far behind our Lithium mining is, and as your own article says, scaling that out without environmental disasters or human rights abuses will be a challenge (and, potentially, infeasible).
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  There were 6 million EV's sold in China in 2022. There were only 3 million gasoline vehicles sold in the US in 2022 so there is obviously enough Lithium refinery capacity for the entire US market at least.
  - gjsman-1000 3y ago
    Wrong. “It is estimated that the U.S. alone will need 500,000 metric tons per year of unrefined lithium by 2034 just to power EVs. The U.S. produces just a fraction of that today. The current global production of lithium in 2020 was about 440,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE, contains about 18% of pure lithium), and not all of that is in pure enough form for batteries, according to Chris Doornbos, president, and CEO of E3 Metals Corp, a lithium extraction firm located in Calgary, Canada, which plans to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide.” As he said, we are not just below the amount necessary, but much of what is produced can't meet spec. https://www.onecharge.biz/blog/u-s-role-in-global-lithium-battery-manufacturing/ https://www.onecharge.biz/blog/u-s-role-in-global-lithium-ba...

_ea1k 3y ago

I do expect that EV 18 wheelers will have their biggest strength in areas where distances traveled aren't always particularly large. Transporting gasoline and diesel to stores perhaps...

standardUser 3y ago

The idea that because EVs need electricity from the grid, and the grid itself is not perfectly clean at this moment in time, is somehow a flaw or a problem is absurd on its face. An electric car can, over the course of its life, continue to get cleaner and cleaner energy as the grid it pulls from gets cleaner and cleaner. That's a win all around. It's also the entire fucking point. Any gas-burning cars produced can only burn gas and will never be cleaner (save for some fanciful conversions).

datavirtue 3y ago
Trucks. Trucks. Trucks. You keep ignoring trucks. They get every god damned thing done and cannot operate on electric until lighter and more energy dense batteries are developed. A lot lighter and a lot more energy dense by several factors. We have the mystical 50mpg car everyone dreamed about thirty years ago. No one will buy them. They need a truck.
- abenga 3y ago
  So because trucks cannot be electric at the moment (doubtful, btw, but let's accept this premise), we should not try to electrify other parts of the global fleet? Every little bit helps, plus the research that goes into that will create these lighter and more energy dense batteries you speak of.

jeffbee 3y ago

There's way more than enough lithium to more than double the fleet MPG, though, by mandating > 45MPG for all light vehicles, which effectively mandates hybrids.

stkdump 3y ago

Even ignoring that your facts are wrong, even the high energy use at construction, the bad energy mix in electricity used to power EVs combined with the charging inefficiencies and the fact that EVs are considerably heavier, etc. ICE cars are still worse in terms of carbon emissions. And the size of the gap will only increase from now on.

brandonagr2 3y ago

Why would you forget about EV 18 wheelers? https://jalopnik.com/tesla-semi-wins-range-test-against-volvo-freightliner-1850925925 https://jalopnik.com/tesla-semi-wins-range-test-against-volv...

flashback2199 3y ago

Mining has a very long history of finding more of a resource when more became in demand. I'm sure they will find more lithium, and invent more creative ways to mine difficult deposits we already know about. It's usually a bad bet to bet against that. Exhibit A is "Peak Oil," which was that oil supplies peaked in the 70s and the world was going to run out of oil. Side note, I wish I knew how to invest in these kinds of realizations so I could actually make money on them instead of just rambling on forums, lol! Queue "it's already priced in" in 3, 2, 1...