5 ms·
Why ought it to be? Batteries are still expensive.
by bagels 3y ago
Why ought it to be? Batteries are still expensive.
- l33t7332273 3y agoAre they more expensive than motors? Maybe ford has good economies at scale already to make it up.
- csours 3y agoFor now, yes, a bit more.
- bagels 3y agoYes, they are more expensive than motors. The F-150 Lightning has ~100kWh of capacity, and last time I looked it up, batteries cost the manufacturer ~$140/kWh, so, $14,000 in batteries. I don't know what the motor costs, but if they're selling for $35k, I can't imagine the motor costs $14,000. Probably a lot less than this.
- throwaway894345 3y agoWhere did you find $14K? I'm seeing $35K for a replacement--is Ford really marking these up $20K / 250%?
- bagels 3y agoI was using the most aggressive estimates of how much it costs manufacturers to buy batteries on a per kwh basis. Retail replacement cost for the battery is not anywhere near the cost to manufacture the battery.
- NikolaNovak 3y agoIt is my understanding that 250% is lower than normal markup on automotive service parts bought from a. dealership. Economy of cars is weird. As a manufacturer You sell today for a single price. But you have to account for free, expensive warranty work for many years. And recalls. And you have to manufacture, stock, and make available random parts in somewhat predictable but somewhat not quantities for decades. So a gadget that may have cost 50c to produce technically, will be priced at 8.99,for any of the above reasons - subsidize warranty costs, storage costs, etc. Basically, I wish most car parts had only 250% markup!
- throwaway894345 3y agoAccording to some rudimentary Google sleuthing, the battery alone costs about $35K which is about the starting cost of a new gasoline F-150. So yes, the battery alone (i.e., excluding electric motors) is much more expensive than an entire ICE drivetrain. It's essentially very difficult to make a cheaper electric pickup truck because batteries are expensive and you need to have a lot of battery capacity to move a big, boxy pickup truck ~300 miles on a single charge. If you trade off range, people won't buy it (it's already hard enough to persuade pickup truck owners to buy something that has very little towing range and for which there aren't good charging options for a truck with a trailer in tow) and there isn't a lot you can do to make up the range by lightening or streamlining the vehicle without increasing costs. Maybe economies of scale could help, but it's hard to imagine economies of scale without increased demand, which is hard to imagine without lower costs, etc.
- Dalewyn 3y agoIt's worth mentioning that electric vehicles in general have to contend with the Tyranny of the Rocket Equation[1][2], and something like an electric truck that demands bursts and even constant high power draws exacerbates the problem severely. The gist of the problems EVs face right now is that the energy density of batteries do not compete with fossil fuels. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation [2]: "In what has been called 'the tyranny of the rocket equation', there is a limit to the amount of payload that the rocket can carry, as higher amounts of propellant increment the overall weight, and thus also increase the fuel consumption."
- bagels 3y agoThe rocket equation is not directly applicable. An electric car still works if it has less capacity and lower energy density. It is just slower and or has a lower range. Rockets need to produce >1g of acceleration or they don't get to leave earth.
- Dalewyn 3y agoIt is because an electric vehicle needs to move its own batteries as part of itself (obviously), but you also need more batteries to provide competitive driving range/power because the energy density is so low. Thus, you need to install more batteries to compensate for the increased workloads that a truck would forseeably experience, but you need more batteries to convey those batteries which requires bigger motors which requires more batteries and herein lies the Tyranny of the Rocket Equation. At some point you need a breakthrough in energy efficiency or energy storage density because you hit an upper practical limit on how much energy storage you can haul around. ICE cars and trucks must also technically contend with this, but in practice they do not because fossil fuels are so energy dense that we almost never meet that upper practical limit.
- numpad0 3y agoIsn't that precisely why brand establishment and range per dollar for EV from that brand seem to inversely correlate? i.e. Toyota < Nissan < GM < Ford < VW < Volvo < Tesla < Lucid. All those cars do 0-60s in 5s, differentiation is in range and newer brands always mysteriously do better in that column. Can't be just lower Cd or magic especially when Toyota has been shipping Prius since 1997.
- throwaway894345 3y agoYeah, this is my assumption. According to a quick Google search, the battery alone costs as much as a new ICE F-150 (~$35K per Google). I've got to think that a minimalist F-150 lightning would still cost at least $60K and there probably isn't a very big market for people who are willing to pay almost double just to have an electric truck. The bells and whistles help to make the thing compelling.
- Salgat 3y agoF-150 Lightning has no transmission and uses vastly simpler motors instead of an engine. The drive train is also a lot simpler.
- anjel 3y agoAll new R&D All new supply chain All new tooling All new mfring procedures All new distribution and sales channel More than your usual front end costs. It kinda adds up
- wetris 3y ago[dead]
- Salgat 3y agoThat goes for any new lineup. It cost Tesla roughly half a billion to get their Model S to production, but at $48B profit over the past two years, I'm sure it's just the cost of business for Ford to enter a rapidly growing market.
- this_steve_j 3y agoTesla was artificially subsidized by selling carbon offset credits to traditional manufacturers, for example Ford. Otherwise they would not have been able to sell cars at such a huge loss. I don’t have a citation for this, but it was reported in the FT.
- IG_Semmelweiss 3y agoif it wasnt for govt subsidies, there wouldn't also be any cars made by USA ownership from GM, Chrystler etc on the roads, at least for the for the last decade or so.
- Salgat 3y agoThe primary funds for the development of the Model S was a government loan for renewable technologies. That loan plus interest was paid back.
- irjustin 3y agoTo end consumers you're asking them to pay 15k+ "for the same thing". Obviously not true but when the F-150 vs F-150 the 15k is a lot? People are used to paying some 10-20% for "extras" but 35k + 15k?! that's a big leap.
- bagels 3y agoIt's not the same thing. The F150 lightning is faster and electric.
- mc32 3y agoUtility-wise it's "the same thing" for many.
- flagrant_taco 3y agoYou don't need a pickup truck if those are your deciding factors. The F-150 Lightning is pretty useless as a truck, with the largest battery storing as much energy as 4 gallons of gas[1]. If you want a truck get a gas or diesel truck, if you want fast and electric you have better options that don't waste electricity hauling around a heavier vehicle and unused truck bed. [1] https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/ford-f150-lightning-electric-truck-towing-test/ https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/ford-f150-lightning-elect...
- afavour 3y ago> You don't need a pickup truck if those are your deciding factors. And yet… gestures towards US car sales figures
- flagrant_taco 3y agoHah, yes rational markets and all that
- bagels 3y agoOkay, but people buy all sorts of impractical to things. I just said it was different and listed how. Sounds like there are more ways it is different.
- kylebenzle 3y agoElectric car will very soon be far cheaper to produce because they are not as complex and use less man hours to produce.
- bagels 3y agoCost of batteries is the limiting factor. They are expensive.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoThey are falling in price by around 10% / year. That’s not even counting cheap Chinese battery chemistries.
- rdtsc 3y agoConsumers of the truck don't care. The car and the price has to make sense. Just making it "electric" is not good enough. If it charges longer, is heavier, or has reduced range or towing capacity, it better be a lot cheaper to operate/insure or have other pluses to compensate. If it doesn't people won't buy it.
- saagarjha 3y agoConsumers of the truck overwhelmingly buy it because it looks like a truck, not because they actually have any need for a truck. Not entirely sure they care about the price making sense.
- rdtsc 3y agoBut it’s a heavier, more expensive and taking longer to “refuel” truck. Even people who buy it and rarely use it for towing or hauling stuff like to at least imagine themselves doing it. But, yeah, I electric cars are cool, and sometimes are people splurging for that feature, but I don’t see it for consumers traditionally buying trucks. If anything it’s an anti-feature almost for them.
- thebruce87m 3y agoIt doesn’t take longer to refuel necessarily, for those that charge at home and only do rare 200+ mile trips they will actually save time. Since I got my home charger 3 months ago I’ve spent the same amount of time “waiting” on my mobile phone charging as my car - none. Probably close to an hour saved at petrol stations over the same period.
- rdtsc 3y agoThat's a fair point. Yeah, I agree those that can charge it at home or a at a depot (for a fleet) this could make sense.
- benj111 3y agoYou aren't answering the parents question. You're talking about value to the consumer, the parent is talking about expense to manufacture. I'm still not sure what the gp is referring to. They could be making a moral argument as far as I can work out.