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The BLS methodology is certainly “elaborate.” But as is pointed out down-thread, the CPI uses completely bizarre measures and makes little attempt to source dat

The BLS methodology is certainly “elaborate.” But as is pointed out down-thread, the CPI uses completely bizarre measures and makes little attempt to source data from the kind of places that would typically be used to do these analysis were more rigor being demanded or actual money was riding on them being correct. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37895252 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37895252

creer 3y ago
A lof of actual money rides on CPI measures. For example social security payments are indexed. Which is one of plenty of strong incentives to keep the "measurements" low.
- nradov 3y ago
  Is there any actual evidence of BLS personnel being pressured to keep their measurements low?
  - creer 3y ago
    BLS is part of a large organization. Specifically it's part of the United States Department of Labor (DOL), one of departments of the executive branch. I haven't yet heard of a government with an incentive to find a high inflation number. (And if it were an "independent" agency like statistics are in some countries, that would provide more shielding but not necessarily perfect either.) Asking for specific evidence of a specific BLS personel filing a grievance or similar because of pressure is placing the bar way into the "blind" territory. This is not how influence works. I mean sometimes it is and we get to see it laundered in public, but that's not the common way. In the case of BLS it may be there, I haven't searched. Oh hey, there is someone who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/09/11/bush-associate-under-nixon-surveyed-jews-in-bls/061216e0-6423-4efa-adcc-47bc2453df85/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/09/11/b... As usual what would help is ever more work from the producers to justify their work. BLS comes short. They are not the only ones but still.
    - nradov 3y ago
      So you are insinuating something but have no actual evidence. Just another baseless conspiracy theory.

creer 3y ago

A lof of actual money rides on CPI measures. For example social security payments are indexed. Which is one of plenty of strong incentives to keep the "measurements" low.

nradov 3y ago
Is there any actual evidence of BLS personnel being pressured to keep their measurements low?
- creer 3y ago
  BLS is part of a large organization. Specifically it's part of the United States Department of Labor (DOL), one of departments of the executive branch. I haven't yet heard of a government with an incentive to find a high inflation number. (And if it were an "independent" agency like statistics are in some countries, that would provide more shielding but not necessarily perfect either.) Asking for specific evidence of a specific BLS personel filing a grievance or similar because of pressure is placing the bar way into the "blind" territory. This is not how influence works. I mean sometimes it is and we get to see it laundered in public, but that's not the common way. In the case of BLS it may be there, I haven't searched. Oh hey, there is someone who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/09/11/bush-associate-under-nixon-surveyed-jews-in-bls/061216e0-6423-4efa-adcc-47bc2453df85/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/09/11/b... As usual what would help is ever more work from the producers to justify their work. BLS comes short. They are not the only ones but still.
  - nradov 3y ago
    So you are insinuating something but have no actual evidence. Just another baseless conspiracy theory.