4 ms·

Nothing against you in particular, I don’t think anyone can predict political outcomes decades out with any sort of accuracy.

Gibbon1 3y ago
My back channel is electronic component suppliers that sell to the automotive industry. They and the auto makers are gearing up to produce only EV's in ten to fifteen years. If you believe the cartoon version of economics peddled by economists you could believe that consumer choice means gas cars and trucks will still be around in 30 years. Truth is policy makers and the auto manufacturing have negotiated the 2025 as the end of fossil fueled vehicle production. It's a done deal and what the WSJ thinks, auto dealers and consumers want doesn't figure into it.
- bradleyjg 3y ago
  I’ll see if I can remember to circle back in 2025. If so, talk to you then.
  - Gibbon1 3y ago
    I'm sure this is very confusing to you because you aren't old enough to remember the last time governments mandated big changes in how cars are designed. In the 1960's and 70's governments required seat belts, air bags, unleaded gasoline and catalytic converters, crash testing, collapsible steering wheels, banned metal dashboards. Before that they mandated headlights, tail lights, brake lights, rear view and side mirrors. Four wheel split circuit hydraulic braking. That was all 40 years ago and before. So you've never seen that happen. I have and I know whats coming. You'll see.
    - bradleyjg 3y ago
      I’m aware that the government can regulate but thanks for the explanation. You have no idea who the policy makers will be in 2025. If you think you do, go here and get rich: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/30186572/multi-market?marketIds=1.176878927 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/30186572/mul... I can explain to you how it works if it’s too confusing for you. Since you remember the 60s and all.
- nradov 3y ago
  You can't be serious. It is simply impossible to transform the industry by 2025. Auto factories are already doing preliminary work for 2025 model year ICE production. Some countries and US states have set a goal of 2035. That is somewhat more realistic but still not fully achievable. I guarantee that deadline will be pushed back in some places, especially for hybrid vehicles.
  - Gibbon1 3y ago
    The industry already knows how to build electric cars at scale. You can buy one tomorrow if want. Automakers redesign their models every ten years or so already. Plus a lot of the assembles are exactly the same as gasoline cars. Thing structural changes to support the electric motor and battery, that all sheet metal. If there is anything those guys know it's stamping and spot welding sheet metal. And as I said above the trade publications as opposed to the fish wrap press all show that the transition is something everyone in the industry is planning for. There are something like 17 large battery manufacturing plants planned or being build right now for instance. Just in the US alone.
    - nradov 3y ago
      Those battery plants aren't going to be enough, especially not by 2025. But the bigger obstacle is charging infrastructure. It just takes a lot of time to build that out, which is why those deadlines will inevitably be pushed back.

Gibbon1 3y ago

My back channel is electronic component suppliers that sell to the automotive industry. They and the auto makers are gearing up to produce only EV's in ten to fifteen years. If you believe the cartoon version of economics peddled by economists you could believe that consumer choice means gas cars and trucks will still be around in 30 years. Truth is policy makers and the auto manufacturing have negotiated the 2025 as the end of fossil fueled vehicle production. It's a done deal and what the WSJ thinks, auto dealers and consumers want doesn't figure into it.

bradleyjg 3y ago
I’ll see if I can remember to circle back in 2025. If so, talk to you then.
- Gibbon1 3y ago
  I'm sure this is very confusing to you because you aren't old enough to remember the last time governments mandated big changes in how cars are designed. In the 1960's and 70's governments required seat belts, air bags, unleaded gasoline and catalytic converters, crash testing, collapsible steering wheels, banned metal dashboards. Before that they mandated headlights, tail lights, brake lights, rear view and side mirrors. Four wheel split circuit hydraulic braking. That was all 40 years ago and before. So you've never seen that happen. I have and I know whats coming. You'll see.
  - bradleyjg 3y ago
    I’m aware that the government can regulate but thanks for the explanation. You have no idea who the policy makers will be in 2025. If you think you do, go here and get rich: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/30186572/multi-market?marketIds=1.176878927 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/30186572/mul... I can explain to you how it works if it’s too confusing for you. Since you remember the 60s and all.
nradov 3y ago
You can't be serious. It is simply impossible to transform the industry by 2025. Auto factories are already doing preliminary work for 2025 model year ICE production. Some countries and US states have set a goal of 2035. That is somewhat more realistic but still not fully achievable. I guarantee that deadline will be pushed back in some places, especially for hybrid vehicles.
- Gibbon1 3y ago
  The industry already knows how to build electric cars at scale. You can buy one tomorrow if want. Automakers redesign their models every ten years or so already. Plus a lot of the assembles are exactly the same as gasoline cars. Thing structural changes to support the electric motor and battery, that all sheet metal. If there is anything those guys know it's stamping and spot welding sheet metal. And as I said above the trade publications as opposed to the fish wrap press all show that the transition is something everyone in the industry is planning for. There are something like 17 large battery manufacturing plants planned or being build right now for instance. Just in the US alone.
  - nradov 3y ago
    Those battery plants aren't going to be enough, especially not by 2025. But the bigger obstacle is charging infrastructure. It just takes a lot of time to build that out, which is why those deadlines will inevitably be pushed back.