4 ms·

The numbers don’t pencil out given the changes to the tax code and current gas prices. That leaves the whims of fashionability. Not something I’d bet billions o

The numbers don’t pencil out given the changes to the tax code and current gas prices. That leaves the whims of fashionability. Not something I’d bet billions on.

throwaway5959 3y ago
Everyone seems to assume gas is going to stay cheap, then it goes up and people driving F350s w/15 MPG to/from their office jobs get upset. Drive what you want but don’t complain when OPEC decides to go to war with Israel and oil doubles in price. We’ve seen this play out so many times since 2000.
- bradleyjg 3y ago
  If I want to bet on the future price of oil, I’ll do it with ETFs not my car purchase.
  - throwaway5959 3y ago
    Great, buy what you like.
- jillesvangurp 3y ago
  It's not just the price. The thing that many people forget about is that with double digit percentages in demand changes for petrol and diesel happening over the next few years is that a lot of struggling petrol stations are not going to survive the EV transition. You take away 20-30% of their business and inevitably that's going to wipe out a few of them. You can expect to have to take increasingly longer detours to get to a fuel station. Expect that to happen in the most remote/rural areas first; places with the least amount of business. And it's not going to stop at 20-30% of course. The resulting range anxiety is possibly going to be a major driver for EV adoption in such areas.
- nradov 3y ago
  North America is largely self sufficient in crude oil. If there was another supply shock due to a war in the Middle East or whatever then the US federal government would reimpose the export ban to hold down domestic prices. Retail prices would rise a little but doubling isn't realistic.
  - throwaway5959 3y ago
    I always get in trouble when I try to use hyperbole to explain a broader trend.
Gibbon1 3y ago
The regulatory changes due to the need to stave off global warming trumps everything. Truth is lot of people buying new cars and especially trucks aren't exactly prudent. The sales guy on the lot cares only about next months rent. The dealer is an ass who care only about staying in business the a year from now. But auto manufacturers have to pay attention to ten year time lines and what they see is they won't be able to sell gas and diesel vehicles in 10-15 years. Big picture 'consumer choice' does not matter at all, they have to buy whats offered and gas/diesel cars and trucks won't be.
- bradleyjg 3y ago
  Nothing against you in particular, I don’t think anyone can predict political outcomes decades out with any sort of accuracy.
  - Gibbon1 3y ago
    My back channel is electronic component suppliers that sell to the automotive industry. They and the auto makers are gearing up to produce only EV's in ten to fifteen years. If you believe the cartoon version of economics peddled by economists you could believe that consumer choice means gas cars and trucks will still be around in 30 years. Truth is policy makers and the auto manufacturing have negotiated the 2025 as the end of fossil fueled vehicle production. It's a done deal and what the WSJ thinks, auto dealers and consumers want doesn't figure into it.
    - bradleyjg 3y ago
      I’ll see if I can remember to circle back in 2025. If so, talk to you then.
      - Gibbon1 3y ago
        I'm sure this is very confusing to you because you aren't old enough to remember the last time governments mandated big changes in how cars are designed. In the 1960's and 70's governments required seat belts, air bags, unleaded gasoline and catalytic converters, crash testing, collapsible steering wheels, banned metal dashboards. Before that they mandated headlights, tail lights, brake lights, rear view and side mirrors. Four wheel split circuit hydraulic braking. That was all 40 years ago and before. So you've never seen that happen. I have and I know whats coming. You'll see.

The numbers don’t pencil out given the changes to the tax code and current gas prices. That leaves the whims of fashionability. Not something I’d bet billions on.

throwaway5959 3y ago

Everyone seems to assume gas is going to stay cheap, then it goes up and people driving F350s w/15 MPG to/from their office jobs get upset. Drive what you want but don’t complain when OPEC decides to go to war with Israel and oil doubles in price. We’ve seen this play out so many times since 2000.

bradleyjg 3y ago
If I want to bet on the future price of oil, I’ll do it with ETFs not my car purchase.
- throwaway5959 3y ago
  Great, buy what you like.
jillesvangurp 3y ago
It's not just the price. The thing that many people forget about is that with double digit percentages in demand changes for petrol and diesel happening over the next few years is that a lot of struggling petrol stations are not going to survive the EV transition. You take away 20-30% of their business and inevitably that's going to wipe out a few of them. You can expect to have to take increasingly longer detours to get to a fuel station. Expect that to happen in the most remote/rural areas first; places with the least amount of business. And it's not going to stop at 20-30% of course. The resulting range anxiety is possibly going to be a major driver for EV adoption in such areas.
nradov 3y ago
North America is largely self sufficient in crude oil. If there was another supply shock due to a war in the Middle East or whatever then the US federal government would reimpose the export ban to hold down domestic prices. Retail prices would rise a little but doubling isn't realistic.
- throwaway5959 3y ago
  I always get in trouble when I try to use hyperbole to explain a broader trend.

Gibbon1 3y ago

The regulatory changes due to the need to stave off global warming trumps everything. Truth is lot of people buying new cars and especially trucks aren't exactly prudent. The sales guy on the lot cares only about next months rent. The dealer is an ass who care only about staying in business the a year from now. But auto manufacturers have to pay attention to ten year time lines and what they see is they won't be able to sell gas and diesel vehicles in 10-15 years. Big picture 'consumer choice' does not matter at all, they have to buy whats offered and gas/diesel cars and trucks won't be.

bradleyjg 3y ago
Nothing against you in particular, I don’t think anyone can predict political outcomes decades out with any sort of accuracy.
- Gibbon1 3y ago
  My back channel is electronic component suppliers that sell to the automotive industry. They and the auto makers are gearing up to produce only EV's in ten to fifteen years. If you believe the cartoon version of economics peddled by economists you could believe that consumer choice means gas cars and trucks will still be around in 30 years. Truth is policy makers and the auto manufacturing have negotiated the 2025 as the end of fossil fueled vehicle production. It's a done deal and what the WSJ thinks, auto dealers and consumers want doesn't figure into it.
  - bradleyjg 3y ago
    I’ll see if I can remember to circle back in 2025. If so, talk to you then.
    - Gibbon1 3y ago
      I'm sure this is very confusing to you because you aren't old enough to remember the last time governments mandated big changes in how cars are designed. In the 1960's and 70's governments required seat belts, air bags, unleaded gasoline and catalytic converters, crash testing, collapsible steering wheels, banned metal dashboards. Before that they mandated headlights, tail lights, brake lights, rear view and side mirrors. Four wheel split circuit hydraulic braking. That was all 40 years ago and before. So you've never seen that happen. I have and I know whats coming. You'll see.