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> I really hate the way events like that justified so much conspiracy-theory thinking. Probably because the people who theorized that there had been a conspira

> I really hate the way events like that justified so much conspiracy-theory thinking. Probably because the people who theorized that there had been a conspiracy turned out to be correct, and the usual bromide objections ("someone would have talked," "more than 50 people can never keep a secret," "the government just isn't that competent," etc) were shown to be entirely false.

downWidOutaFite 3y ago
Conspiracy theorists can be wrong about 100 things before they're right about one thing. They're useless for understanding the current state of the world.
- AwaAwa 3y ago
  Until that percentage starts to improve dramatically like in the last 5 years.
- gustavus 3y ago
  Exactly after all the conspiracy theorists were only right about - Iraq WMDs - MkUltra - The Crack Epidemic - Watergate - Glados - Paperclip - Robert Kennedy car crash - Epstien But they just got lucky a bunch.
  - satvikpendem 3y ago
    Now name the thousands that they aren't right about. Your comment is literally survivorship bias in action.
  - gruez 3y ago
    1. You listed 8 conspiracies. How many false conspiracies (or ones that failed to pan out) are there? If there are 800 of them, then OP isn't exactly wrong. 2. For the ones you listed, were there specific and credible "conspiracy theories" that existed prior to them being discovered/confirmed? Or were there only vague theories of "government doing something shady"?
    - plorg 3y ago
      Then also, which specific conspiracy theories were actually confirmed? Part of the problem is that the kernel of truth in the theory is scaffolded out to "justify" the much broader, wilder claims.
    - t-3 3y ago
      > You listed 8 conspiracies. How many false conspiracies (or ones that failed to pan out) are there? If there are 800 of them, then OP isn't exactly wrong. The set of possible conspiracy theories is infinite. The set believed by any one 'conspiracy theorist' is likely to be far smaller. Lumping in hollow earth, lizardpeople, flatearther, aliens etc with 'government lies about wars' is always a cynical move to avoid legitimate criticism and spread propaganda.
      - smegger001 3y ago
        Exsept the believable ones act as gateways to the hard stuff. Its a small mental jump from epsteins pedo island to the DMC being run by satanic communist pedophilias frequenting a pizza shop child brothel. It only a few more jumps to secret base and tunnel system under Denver airport to hallow flat earth and lizard people.
        cempaka 3y ago
        This seems about as true as the theory that marijuana inevitably acts as a gateway to harder drugs.
  - downWidOutaFite 3y ago
    Most of this was revealed by mainstream journalists, not conspiracy theorists. The one I lived through, Iraq WMDs, wasnt a conspiracy theory at the time. All credible evidence said there were no WMDs. Bush and Cheney lied with no evidence. Everyone that was not a partisan Republican called them out on their flimsy pretext. That's why we had the largest antiwar protests ever (while conservatives ridiculed us).
    - klyrs 3y ago
      A conspiracy theory of that time was that Bush was behind 9/11 because he wanted a causus belli to shore up his tanking popularity in the leadup to his re-election. Basically, fitting the plot of Wag the Dog to the facts of the day. The theory remains unsubstantiated. Another was that the collapse of the world trade center towers was due to planted explosive charges. That one has been roundly refuted. Of course, people continue to believe what that will, but there's a pretty big gap in the amount of evidence behind those theories and confirmed conspiracies.
      - yabbs 3y ago
        2 planes, 3 buildings. Hack those numbers.
        MrMan 3y ago
        [dead]
        klyrs 3y ago
        I put more stock in the people who can do deeper analysis than your arithmetic. https://www.nist.gov/pao/questions-and-answers-about-nist-wtc-7-investigation https://www.nist.gov/pao/questions-and-answers-about-nist-wt...
        yabbs 3y ago
        [flagged]
      - 3y ago
  - beambot 3y ago
    Operation Northwoods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods
  - stelliosk 3y ago
    A broken clock is right twice a day.
  - callalex 3y ago
    I’ve been told in earnest that the earth is flat but people of Jewish decent are hiding that fact from me. Including only the successes on your list is misleading.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    If you're going to make a list like this, at least make sure all of them are right. "The Crack Epidemic" is not one conspiracy theorists are right about. As the common conspiracy trope is that the government invented crack and gave it to black people to destroy their neighborhoods. Iraq WMD's is also wrong and case of what happens when conspiracy theorists get a hold of the US government. Most countries and the US house did not accept the WMD conspiracy that immediately turned out to be untrue as most conspiracies do. Now the conspiracy theorists are that it was all done for oil, which is also a blatantly dumb characterization.
    - defrost 3y ago
      As conspiracy theories go "The Crack Epidemic" is at least ballpark - the details are hazy but there's something there. The OIG (Office of Inspector General) report into "THE CIA-CONTRA-CRACK COCAINE CONTROVERSY" (December, 1997) https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/special/9712/index.htm https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/special/9... didn't touch the bedrock involvement of the CIA-Contra support underpinning the magnitude increase and near literal flooding of cocaine powder into the USofA (because that connection had already been "extensively reviewed in previous inquiries by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's Subcommittee on Narcotics, Terrorism and International Operations; the State Department; the DEA; and the CIA.") That, however, is enough on it's own to make the case that the CIA was (indirectly) responsible - had the volume not increased so substantially and had the price not dropped so dramatically there would never had been any driver to make a more addictive by product so readily available. The rest of the OIG report is volumous but weak - there is no evidence because various targets "fell between the cracks", there was no task force because the agent who suggested one had a case of "her supervisors did not take her request seriously because she was a female agent." and not "because there was pressure to cover up". These are not great reasons that the evidence is lacking because deeper investigations were not held, and they don't exclude unseen pressure to not look further.
  - krapp 3y ago
    Conspiracy theorists didn't know about any of those conspiracies beforehand, most if not all were revealed by mainstream media (or, in the case of MKUltra, by accidental declassification) and conspiracy theorists claimed credit for them after the fact. Epstein is a particular howler because the QAnon set loudly proclaiming triumph about that was entirely focused on phantom satanic pedophile cults with the Democratic Party while Epstein was never even on their radar. Yes, they just got lucky a bunch.
    - cempaka 3y ago
      Epstein was on plenty of conspiracy theorists' radars, if maybe not the QAnon set's. There's a through line from the Franklin Scandal to the Dutroux Affair to Epstein, all of which conspiracy theorists have been citing as evidence of elite pedophilia, trafficking, and unaccountability for years. Probably you're unaware of this because your conception of a conspiracy theorist and what they believe or argue has been handed to you by mass media.
- csomar 3y ago
  Conspiracy theories do not emerge from nothingness but the lack of transparency, double-standards and lack of a clear moral framework is what gives them a breeding ground. Realpolitik is like corporate America today. It optimizes return for the next couple quarters disregarding the long-term damage.
  - nitwit005 3y ago
    Have every meeting in public, publish every document, and they'll still insist you're part of a Communist conspiracy to poison the tap water. Or for a more modern one, examine the diverse accusations around 5G. Some of it's just general paranoia and distrust, or outright mental illness.
    - rightbyte 3y ago
      Mentally ill conspiracy theorist are just mentally ill. Why even bring those up. They are used to smear people pointing out actual conspiracies in such a way that even using the word "conspiracy" will make people think you are a lunatic.
      - nitwit005 3y ago
        We're discussing the reasons for conspiracy theories "emerging". Any honest list will include mental illness.
        rightbyte 3y ago
        Fair enough.
- cempaka 3y ago
  The point is not that any given random conspiracy theory is correct. It's that these specific objections to conspiratorial analysis are spurious and disproven.
- oatmeal1 3y ago
  "Conspiracy theorists" isn't one group of people. "Conspiracy theory" is just a label applied when anyone believes something outside the Overton Window.
  - downWidOutaFite 3y ago
    I don't think it's related to the Overton Window. Usually it's just a web of insinuations based on vibes.
nitwit005 3y ago
I'm not even sure if this qualifies as a secret. People were openly discussing the UK and US involvement at the time.
- cempaka 3y ago
  Yes, and this is one of the main problems with the "someone would have talked" objection. There are often witnesses or leakers, including to events like the JFK assassination, but as long as they can be kept out of the public consciousness or adequately smeared as cranks, it's as if the secret was kept regardless.
  - redeeman 3y ago
    its funny how governments ALWAYS lies about wars they have been involved with, and people by and large considers this to be true. but currently when there are wars, we are to trust them 100%
  - nitwit005 3y ago
    The New York Times published an article reporting Soviet charges that the United States was behind the coup. It was just genuinely not a secret.
    - t-3 3y ago
      The same or similar can be said about pretty much any "conspiracy theory", from totally insane ancient alien stuff to mundane corruption and foul play.
  - orwin 3y ago
    I'm sorry, but this coup is the only "conspiracy theory" where i got second-hand versions of actual witnesses (actually, participants). There were journalists that wrote on that in France in the 60s (proamerican anticommunist, hardline right wing, so when he wrote "the US did it because Mossadegh was a commie", i mean, everybody should believe it). We had actual political party that wrote that the US did it in their manifesto in the 70s, and taught that to their members in their "modern history" lessons (my father tended to those instead of going to catechism/sunday school). You had public figures in Iran who said "The US paid us". It was quite clear the US did it until in the 00s a top US official said "yeah, we did it, it was cheap". JFK assassination is weird, because only 3 people needed to be involved, so it might be hard to find actual participants, but most conspiracy theories needs a lot more (anywhere from dozens to thousands), and those, i wouldn't trust no one serious talked. When Seymour Hersh managed to find proofs on CIA most secret operation (MKUltra, which is way worse imho than lying about getting on the moon or whatever), its hard to keep that objection.
smegger001 3y ago
Except people didnt keep quiet and weren't that compatent that why it shows up in high school us history books and gave us the shit shows in the middle east and Latin America today. So both side were right and wrong it was a conspiracy of blabering incompatents.

downWidOutaFite 3y ago

Conspiracy theorists can be wrong about 100 things before they're right about one thing. They're useless for understanding the current state of the world.

AwaAwa 3y ago
Until that percentage starts to improve dramatically like in the last 5 years.
gustavus 3y ago
Exactly after all the conspiracy theorists were only right about - Iraq WMDs - MkUltra - The Crack Epidemic - Watergate - Glados - Paperclip - Robert Kennedy car crash - Epstien But they just got lucky a bunch.
- satvikpendem 3y ago
  Now name the thousands that they aren't right about. Your comment is literally survivorship bias in action.
- gruez 3y ago
  1. You listed 8 conspiracies. How many false conspiracies (or ones that failed to pan out) are there? If there are 800 of them, then OP isn't exactly wrong. 2. For the ones you listed, were there specific and credible "conspiracy theories" that existed prior to them being discovered/confirmed? Or were there only vague theories of "government doing something shady"?
  - plorg 3y ago
    Then also, which specific conspiracy theories were actually confirmed? Part of the problem is that the kernel of truth in the theory is scaffolded out to "justify" the much broader, wilder claims.
  - t-3 3y ago
    > You listed 8 conspiracies. How many false conspiracies (or ones that failed to pan out) are there? If there are 800 of them, then OP isn't exactly wrong. The set of possible conspiracy theories is infinite. The set believed by any one 'conspiracy theorist' is likely to be far smaller. Lumping in hollow earth, lizardpeople, flatearther, aliens etc with 'government lies about wars' is always a cynical move to avoid legitimate criticism and spread propaganda.
    - smegger001 3y ago
      Exsept the believable ones act as gateways to the hard stuff. Its a small mental jump from epsteins pedo island to the DMC being run by satanic communist pedophilias frequenting a pizza shop child brothel. It only a few more jumps to secret base and tunnel system under Denver airport to hallow flat earth and lizard people.
      - cempaka 3y ago
        This seems about as true as the theory that marijuana inevitably acts as a gateway to harder drugs.
- downWidOutaFite 3y ago
  Most of this was revealed by mainstream journalists, not conspiracy theorists. The one I lived through, Iraq WMDs, wasnt a conspiracy theory at the time. All credible evidence said there were no WMDs. Bush and Cheney lied with no evidence. Everyone that was not a partisan Republican called them out on their flimsy pretext. That's why we had the largest antiwar protests ever (while conservatives ridiculed us).
  - klyrs 3y ago
    A conspiracy theory of that time was that Bush was behind 9/11 because he wanted a causus belli to shore up his tanking popularity in the leadup to his re-election. Basically, fitting the plot of Wag the Dog to the facts of the day. The theory remains unsubstantiated. Another was that the collapse of the world trade center towers was due to planted explosive charges. That one has been roundly refuted. Of course, people continue to believe what that will, but there's a pretty big gap in the amount of evidence behind those theories and confirmed conspiracies.
    - yabbs 3y ago
      2 planes, 3 buildings. Hack those numbers.
      - MrMan 3y ago
        [dead]
      - klyrs 3y ago
        I put more stock in the people who can do deeper analysis than your arithmetic. https://www.nist.gov/pao/questions-and-answers-about-nist-wtc-7-investigation https://www.nist.gov/pao/questions-and-answers-about-nist-wt...
        yabbs 3y ago
        [flagged]
    - 3y ago
- beambot 3y ago
  Operation Northwoods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods
- stelliosk 3y ago
  A broken clock is right twice a day.
- callalex 3y ago
  I’ve been told in earnest that the earth is flat but people of Jewish decent are hiding that fact from me. Including only the successes on your list is misleading.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  If you're going to make a list like this, at least make sure all of them are right. "The Crack Epidemic" is not one conspiracy theorists are right about. As the common conspiracy trope is that the government invented crack and gave it to black people to destroy their neighborhoods. Iraq WMD's is also wrong and case of what happens when conspiracy theorists get a hold of the US government. Most countries and the US house did not accept the WMD conspiracy that immediately turned out to be untrue as most conspiracies do. Now the conspiracy theorists are that it was all done for oil, which is also a blatantly dumb characterization.
  - defrost 3y ago
    As conspiracy theories go "The Crack Epidemic" is at least ballpark - the details are hazy but there's something there. The OIG (Office of Inspector General) report into "THE CIA-CONTRA-CRACK COCAINE CONTROVERSY" (December, 1997) https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/special/9712/index.htm https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/special/9... didn't touch the bedrock involvement of the CIA-Contra support underpinning the magnitude increase and near literal flooding of cocaine powder into the USofA (because that connection had already been "extensively reviewed in previous inquiries by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's Subcommittee on Narcotics, Terrorism and International Operations; the State Department; the DEA; and the CIA.") That, however, is enough on it's own to make the case that the CIA was (indirectly) responsible - had the volume not increased so substantially and had the price not dropped so dramatically there would never had been any driver to make a more addictive by product so readily available. The rest of the OIG report is volumous but weak - there is no evidence because various targets "fell between the cracks", there was no task force because the agent who suggested one had a case of "her supervisors did not take her request seriously because she was a female agent." and not "because there was pressure to cover up". These are not great reasons that the evidence is lacking because deeper investigations were not held, and they don't exclude unseen pressure to not look further.
- krapp 3y ago
  Conspiracy theorists didn't know about any of those conspiracies beforehand, most if not all were revealed by mainstream media (or, in the case of MKUltra, by accidental declassification) and conspiracy theorists claimed credit for them after the fact. Epstein is a particular howler because the QAnon set loudly proclaiming triumph about that was entirely focused on phantom satanic pedophile cults with the Democratic Party while Epstein was never even on their radar. Yes, they just got lucky a bunch.
  - cempaka 3y ago
    Epstein was on plenty of conspiracy theorists' radars, if maybe not the QAnon set's. There's a through line from the Franklin Scandal to the Dutroux Affair to Epstein, all of which conspiracy theorists have been citing as evidence of elite pedophilia, trafficking, and unaccountability for years. Probably you're unaware of this because your conception of a conspiracy theorist and what they believe or argue has been handed to you by mass media.
csomar 3y ago
Conspiracy theories do not emerge from nothingness but the lack of transparency, double-standards and lack of a clear moral framework is what gives them a breeding ground. Realpolitik is like corporate America today. It optimizes return for the next couple quarters disregarding the long-term damage.
- nitwit005 3y ago
  Have every meeting in public, publish every document, and they'll still insist you're part of a Communist conspiracy to poison the tap water. Or for a more modern one, examine the diverse accusations around 5G. Some of it's just general paranoia and distrust, or outright mental illness.
  - rightbyte 3y ago
    Mentally ill conspiracy theorist are just mentally ill. Why even bring those up. They are used to smear people pointing out actual conspiracies in such a way that even using the word "conspiracy" will make people think you are a lunatic.
    - nitwit005 3y ago
      We're discussing the reasons for conspiracy theories "emerging". Any honest list will include mental illness.
      - rightbyte 3y ago
        Fair enough.
cempaka 3y ago
The point is not that any given random conspiracy theory is correct. It's that these specific objections to conspiratorial analysis are spurious and disproven.
oatmeal1 3y ago
"Conspiracy theorists" isn't one group of people. "Conspiracy theory" is just a label applied when anyone believes something outside the Overton Window.
- downWidOutaFite 3y ago
  I don't think it's related to the Overton Window. Usually it's just a web of insinuations based on vibes.

nitwit005 3y ago

I'm not even sure if this qualifies as a secret. People were openly discussing the UK and US involvement at the time.

cempaka 3y ago
Yes, and this is one of the main problems with the "someone would have talked" objection. There are often witnesses or leakers, including to events like the JFK assassination, but as long as they can be kept out of the public consciousness or adequately smeared as cranks, it's as if the secret was kept regardless.
- redeeman 3y ago
  its funny how governments ALWAYS lies about wars they have been involved with, and people by and large considers this to be true. but currently when there are wars, we are to trust them 100%
- nitwit005 3y ago
  The New York Times published an article reporting Soviet charges that the United States was behind the coup. It was just genuinely not a secret.
  - t-3 3y ago
    The same or similar can be said about pretty much any "conspiracy theory", from totally insane ancient alien stuff to mundane corruption and foul play.
- orwin 3y ago
  I'm sorry, but this coup is the only "conspiracy theory" where i got second-hand versions of actual witnesses (actually, participants). There were journalists that wrote on that in France in the 60s (proamerican anticommunist, hardline right wing, so when he wrote "the US did it because Mossadegh was a commie", i mean, everybody should believe it). We had actual political party that wrote that the US did it in their manifesto in the 70s, and taught that to their members in their "modern history" lessons (my father tended to those instead of going to catechism/sunday school). You had public figures in Iran who said "The US paid us". It was quite clear the US did it until in the 00s a top US official said "yeah, we did it, it was cheap". JFK assassination is weird, because only 3 people needed to be involved, so it might be hard to find actual participants, but most conspiracy theories needs a lot more (anywhere from dozens to thousands), and those, i wouldn't trust no one serious talked. When Seymour Hersh managed to find proofs on CIA most secret operation (MKUltra, which is way worse imho than lying about getting on the moon or whatever), its hard to keep that objection.

smegger001 3y ago

Except people didnt keep quiet and weren't that compatent that why it shows up in high school us history books and gave us the shit shows in the middle east and Latin America today. So both side were right and wrong it was a conspiracy of blabering incompatents.