The dystopian AI scenario that's the most realistic is one where a tiny number of elites and/or governments control massively powerful superintelligent AIs and

The dystopian AI scenario that's the most realistic is one where a tiny number of elites and/or governments control massively powerful superintelligent AIs and use them to basically rule the world and enslave humanity. That's precisely the scenario the AI doom crowd is pushing by advocating laws preventing anyone except governments and huge corporations from operating or researching AI. Autonomous AI going "foom" and deciding out of all the possibilities open to it as a superintelligence to go to war against humanity is incredibly unlikely compared to numerous other existential risks confronting humanity. I wouldn't quite call it impossible as that's a strong word, but it's profoundly less plausible than climate change driven collapse, nuclear war, a beyond-Carrington level solar event, or some rando doing DIY genetic engineering and making a super-disease. Yet these idiots are advocating bans on matrix multiplication when you can buy the supplies to do CRISPR genetic modification at home off Amazon.