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I mean, look, this was the same logic hurled at Russia blowing up their pipeline. Like who would do such a thing? But apparently till Hirsch provided corrobor

by mc32 3y ago

I mean, look, this was the same logic hurled at Russia blowing up their pipeline. Like who would do such a thing? But apparently till Hirsch provided corroborating info that NATO did it, people totally believed Russia would shoot themselves in the foot. To the majority it was a "reasonable" explanation. Anyhow, Russia can pump gas through this pipeline as well. Since it would hurt them, we might spite our own face.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> this was the same logic hurled at Russia blowing up their pipeline. Like who would do such a thing? This was some peoples' logic. But it wasn't the compelling evidence. The motivations of individual Russian actors, instead, was germane. (The most compelling evidence points to Kyiv.) > till Hirsch provided corroborating info that NATO did it This is total nonsense. On one hand, we have various nations' official statements and open source intelligence. On the other hand, we have a dude with an anonymous source.
- mc32 3y ago
  He's not a random dude. He's a renowned and one of our best investigative reporters who has uncovered government wrongdoing. He's got a pretty good record.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > He's a renowned and one of our best investigative reporters who has uncovered government wrongdoing. He's got a pretty good record. From the Vietnam and Iraq wars. He went off the deep end recently [1][2]. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/allegation-false-turkey-chemical-attack-syria https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/allega... [2] https://www.snopes.com/news/2023/02/10/hersh-nord-stream-sabotage/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2023/02/10/hersh-nord-stream-sab...
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- jabl 3y ago
  > This is total nonsense. Of course it is. Hirsch is a well-known Kremlin puppet.
  - api 3y ago
    He kind of outed himself: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/15btz15/russian_idiom_leaks_into_seymour_hershs_commentry/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/15btz15/... I doubt he's an intentional Russian puppet, but he's probably being fed bullshit by one.
stickfigure 3y ago
Hersh's narrative has been thoroughly debunked: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour... Russia benefits from infighting among the allies of Ukraine. That gives them a pretty big incentive.
- swader999 3y ago
  Wouldn't they have had more options and leverage had they just turned it off or refuse to supply it? What does sabotaging it do that gives Russia any more advantage?
  - stickfigure 3y ago
    If they can blame the US, it drives a wedge between the US and the gas consumers (Europe). The pipe wasn't in use and wasn't likely to be used anytime soon, if ever. Russia only wins if Ukraine's allies give up. I can see Putin willing to trade a useless pipeline for a chance at dismembering the alliance. The only other option that makes sense is Ukraine doing it. But it seems a high-risk strategy for low reward; at least publicly, there was no indication that Germany et al were begging Russia to turn the gas back on.
    - swader999 3y ago
      I've heard a theory that USA did it to get Germany to fully commit to supporting the war, didn't want Russia to have leverage, wanted Germany dependant on USA for gas. Then there's the comment from Biden that foreshadowed it. I'm not convinced on any theory personally though.
- somenameforme 3y ago
  Kind of like how the narrative that Iraq does NOT have WMDs was also thoroughly debunked? [1] [2] As I'm sure you're aware, we remain in a state of information warfare. As a result of this, what you read in the media is borderline worthless. In this story it's impossible to know the truth, let alone debunk it, as next to nothing is truly falsifiable by you. All you can really do is rely on your own logic, and try to remove as much bias as possible. In this case Russia spent billions of dollars constructing that pipeline, over more than a decade, overcoming countless hurdles to do so. And the whole time this was going on the US was constantly trying to interfere with its development, at times arbitrarily threatening Germany and Swiss companies with possible sanctions over it. Then Biden publicly and literally said, "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." The idea that Russia blew it up for basically any reason, let alone some hand-wavey notion that 'it might cause infighting' is really just not logical. Since Germany has tried to ween themselves off Russian gas, their economy has somewhat predictably began to suffer. Once the backbone of the EU, Germany has since collapsed into recession, inflation has been skyrocketing (20% on foodstuffs), and so on. Russia could have predicted most of these outcomes if Germany refused to take the gas, and expected to have tremendous leverage. At the minimum driving infighting as Germany pragmatists fight with US interests. [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-undeniable.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-u... [2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/irrefutable/e598b1be-a78a-4a42-8e1a-c336f7a217f4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/i...
mirekrusin 3y ago
Irrational things in Russia are daily occurrence.

by mc32 3y ago

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> this was the same logic hurled at Russia blowing up their pipeline. Like who would do such a thing? This was some peoples' logic. But it wasn't the compelling evidence. The motivations of individual Russian actors, instead, was germane. (The most compelling evidence points to Kyiv.) > till Hirsch provided corroborating info that NATO did it This is total nonsense. On one hand, we have various nations' official statements and open source intelligence. On the other hand, we have a dude with an anonymous source.

mc32 3y ago
He's not a random dude. He's a renowned and one of our best investigative reporters who has uncovered government wrongdoing. He's got a pretty good record.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > He's a renowned and one of our best investigative reporters who has uncovered government wrongdoing. He's got a pretty good record. From the Vietnam and Iraq wars. He went off the deep end recently [1][2]. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/allegation-false-turkey-chemical-attack-syria https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/allega... [2] https://www.snopes.com/news/2023/02/10/hersh-nord-stream-sabotage/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2023/02/10/hersh-nord-stream-sab...
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jabl 3y ago
> This is total nonsense. Of course it is. Hirsch is a well-known Kremlin puppet.
- api 3y ago
  He kind of outed himself: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/15btz15/russian_idiom_leaks_into_seymour_hershs_commentry/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/15btz15/... I doubt he's an intentional Russian puppet, but he's probably being fed bullshit by one.

stickfigure 3y ago

Hersh's narrative has been thoroughly debunked: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour... Russia benefits from infighting among the allies of Ukraine. That gives them a pretty big incentive.

swader999 3y ago
Wouldn't they have had more options and leverage had they just turned it off or refuse to supply it? What does sabotaging it do that gives Russia any more advantage?
- stickfigure 3y ago
  If they can blame the US, it drives a wedge between the US and the gas consumers (Europe). The pipe wasn't in use and wasn't likely to be used anytime soon, if ever. Russia only wins if Ukraine's allies give up. I can see Putin willing to trade a useless pipeline for a chance at dismembering the alliance. The only other option that makes sense is Ukraine doing it. But it seems a high-risk strategy for low reward; at least publicly, there was no indication that Germany et al were begging Russia to turn the gas back on.
  - swader999 3y ago
    I've heard a theory that USA did it to get Germany to fully commit to supporting the war, didn't want Russia to have leverage, wanted Germany dependant on USA for gas. Then there's the comment from Biden that foreshadowed it. I'm not convinced on any theory personally though.
somenameforme 3y ago
Kind of like how the narrative that Iraq does NOT have WMDs was also thoroughly debunked? [1] [2] As I'm sure you're aware, we remain in a state of information warfare. As a result of this, what you read in the media is borderline worthless. In this story it's impossible to know the truth, let alone debunk it, as next to nothing is truly falsifiable by you. All you can really do is rely on your own logic, and try to remove as much bias as possible. In this case Russia spent billions of dollars constructing that pipeline, over more than a decade, overcoming countless hurdles to do so. And the whole time this was going on the US was constantly trying to interfere with its development, at times arbitrarily threatening Germany and Swiss companies with possible sanctions over it. Then Biden publicly and literally said, "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." The idea that Russia blew it up for basically any reason, let alone some hand-wavey notion that 'it might cause infighting' is really just not logical. Since Germany has tried to ween themselves off Russian gas, their economy has somewhat predictably began to suffer. Once the backbone of the EU, Germany has since collapsed into recession, inflation has been skyrocketing (20% on foodstuffs), and so on. Russia could have predicted most of these outcomes if Germany refused to take the gas, and expected to have tremendous leverage. At the minimum driving infighting as Germany pragmatists fight with US interests. [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-undeniable.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-u... [2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/irrefutable/e598b1be-a78a-4a42-8e1a-c336f7a217f4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/i...

mirekrusin 3y ago

Irrational things in Russia are daily occurrence.