4 ms·

If the US was an IMF country it would be way off the reservation. The amount of outstanding debt is massive, and I don't think any of the older models would be

by mannyv 3y ago

If the US was an IMF country it would be way off the reservation. The amount of outstanding debt is massive, and I don't think any of the older models would be able to handle it. If anything, today's environment negates the reality of "crowding out." That said, the debt will be at an "unsustainable level" when people stop buying it.

anon1199022 3y ago
Which is definitely coming, not because of debt levels, but because of lack government responsibility and management. There will no future governments with responsible spending and correct calculation. This is truth in few sentences. They are addicted to spending debt like it's nothing. At any real stress, they will be back to unlimited brrrrr, sunday meeting after SV bank went down was just a small sign. Boomers panic so fast. Market knows it, all smart money knows it. Plan and act accordingly. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337
- ram4jesus 3y ago
  It would be one thing if all this debt was being spent on public works projects or universal welfare programs, but sadly it's being squandered away on unaccountable and dark military projects, cronyism, and all the worse avarice that humans are capable of. I would gladly pay more taxes for better schools, parks, cities, humane crime reduction, etc.
  - anon1199022 3y ago
    Yes and other truth USA citizens can't directly see is, how both parties agreed to raise debt level so fast. When was the last time these people agreed on something big in common? I really can't tell. Something that will directly benefit USA citizens first? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65736734 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65736734
    - refulgentis 3y ago
      You're misunderstanding, the _disagreement_ on it is novel, and there is no agreement currently. It's a novel set of parliamentary procedure shenanigans, starting about a decade ago, that it's up for debate. That's why people talk about stuff like the platinum coin.
- refulgentis 3y ago
  Care for a wager? I'm up for any amount up to $20K, on a timeframe of up to 2030. You can pick terms, I don't want to end up with a measure that you feel is unfair or talking down to you.
wing-_-nuts 3y ago
>That said, the debt will be at an "unsustainable level" when people stop buying it. And that won't happen until the rest of the world gets their house in order.
refulgentis 3y ago
> If the US was an IMF country it would be way off the reservation. That's not even wrong. I don't know where to start without coming off as aggressive, lecturing, talking down, or putting words in your mouth. Tough place to be in. Instead, I'll volunteer a general pattern that helps avoid this intellectual trap. I'm old enough now to have seen it wax and wane and take different forms, from Ron Paul to BRICS, and there might be one key fallacy uniting all those. It's not dissimilar to what I've seen from independent large, unorganized, groups discovering Tether every 18 months. It's that _you and the people you are learning new info from are not uniquely blessed, and not everyone is on your timeline_. It's likely there's a sizable # of people have had the idea before. If the US was so heavily indebted it was in a worse place financially than other "IMF country", Argentina, Egypt, Ecuador, Tunisia...we'd see at least some of the same problems. There isn't a mass delusion, psychosis, or enough dumb people in the world to have the US in that category of country but still treated the way it actually is. To some extent, I wonder if this short-sightedness is due to polarization. We spend 4 years being told everything is falling part and fundamental values are broken whenever the other party holds the presidency. In reality, US was _by far_ the most economically successful country during COVID, the last decade. It's earned it place and will continue to for a very long time. I highly, highly suggest reading information from a foreign perspective, Economist is great, if anything, they have a slight antipathy toward the US. And they don't swing for home runs via takes, ever.
qclibre22 3y ago
> If the US was an IMF country The U.S. is in the IMF and has used it to borrow.
User23 3y ago
> That said, the debt will be at an "unsustainable level" when people stop buying it. Treasury auctions can’t fail. I don’t mean failure is highly unlikely. I mean as the system is structured it’s operationally impossible for them to fail. There is no case where the primary dealers in aggregate can ever lack the reserves to make a market. Of course, nothing lasts forever. The US government’s currency issuance (a much clearer way to think of it than “debt”) depends on demand for that currency. Sure, oil is a part of it, but a much larger part is tax burden. It’s not an accident that the USA claims and has the authority to tax its citizens worldwide. That and there is a large highly diversified economy that does business in dollars, so you can get pretty much anything from computer chips to F-35s with USD so they’re generally useful to have. In fact, it would be operationally impossible for any other fiat currency to effectively replace the USD unless its issuer were willing to run sufficient deficits (“print money”/“issue debt”) in amounts sufficient to meet global demand for both payment clearing and holding financial reserves.

by mannyv 3y ago

anon1199022 3y ago

Which is definitely coming, not because of debt levels, but because of lack government responsibility and management. There will no future governments with responsible spending and correct calculation. This is truth in few sentences. They are addicted to spending debt like it's nothing. At any real stress, they will be back to unlimited brrrrr, sunday meeting after SV bank went down was just a small sign. Boomers panic so fast. Market knows it, all smart money knows it. Plan and act accordingly. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337

ram4jesus 3y ago
It would be one thing if all this debt was being spent on public works projects or universal welfare programs, but sadly it's being squandered away on unaccountable and dark military projects, cronyism, and all the worse avarice that humans are capable of. I would gladly pay more taxes for better schools, parks, cities, humane crime reduction, etc.
- anon1199022 3y ago
  Yes and other truth USA citizens can't directly see is, how both parties agreed to raise debt level so fast. When was the last time these people agreed on something big in common? I really can't tell. Something that will directly benefit USA citizens first? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65736734 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65736734
  - refulgentis 3y ago
    You're misunderstanding, the _disagreement_ on it is novel, and there is no agreement currently. It's a novel set of parliamentary procedure shenanigans, starting about a decade ago, that it's up for debate. That's why people talk about stuff like the platinum coin.
refulgentis 3y ago
Care for a wager? I'm up for any amount up to $20K, on a timeframe of up to 2030. You can pick terms, I don't want to end up with a measure that you feel is unfair or talking down to you.

wing-_-nuts 3y ago

>That said, the debt will be at an "unsustainable level" when people stop buying it. And that won't happen until the rest of the world gets their house in order.

refulgentis 3y ago

> If the US was an IMF country it would be way off the reservation. That's not even wrong. I don't know where to start without coming off as aggressive, lecturing, talking down, or putting words in your mouth. Tough place to be in. Instead, I'll volunteer a general pattern that helps avoid this intellectual trap. I'm old enough now to have seen it wax and wane and take different forms, from Ron Paul to BRICS, and there might be one key fallacy uniting all those. It's not dissimilar to what I've seen from independent large, unorganized, groups discovering Tether every 18 months. It's that _you and the people you are learning new info from are not uniquely blessed, and not everyone is on your timeline_. It's likely there's a sizable # of people have had the idea before. If the US was so heavily indebted it was in a worse place financially than other "IMF country", Argentina, Egypt, Ecuador, Tunisia...we'd see at least some of the same problems. There isn't a mass delusion, psychosis, or enough dumb people in the world to have the US in that category of country but still treated the way it actually is. To some extent, I wonder if this short-sightedness is due to polarization. We spend 4 years being told everything is falling part and fundamental values are broken whenever the other party holds the presidency. In reality, US was _by far_ the most economically successful country during COVID, the last decade. It's earned it place and will continue to for a very long time. I highly, highly suggest reading information from a foreign perspective, Economist is great, if anything, they have a slight antipathy toward the US. And they don't swing for home runs via takes, ever.

qclibre22 3y ago

> If the US was an IMF country The U.S. is in the IMF and has used it to borrow.

User23 3y ago

> That said, the debt will be at an "unsustainable level" when people stop buying it. Treasury auctions can’t fail. I don’t mean failure is highly unlikely. I mean as the system is structured it’s operationally impossible for them to fail. There is no case where the primary dealers in aggregate can ever lack the reserves to make a market. Of course, nothing lasts forever. The US government’s currency issuance (a much clearer way to think of it than “debt”) depends on demand for that currency. Sure, oil is a part of it, but a much larger part is tax burden. It’s not an accident that the USA claims and has the authority to tax its citizens worldwide. That and there is a large highly diversified economy that does business in dollars, so you can get pretty much anything from computer chips to F-35s with USD so they’re generally useful to have. In fact, it would be operationally impossible for any other fiat currency to effectively replace the USD unless its issuer were willing to run sufficient deficits (“print money”/“issue debt”) in amounts sufficient to meet global demand for both payment clearing and holding financial reserves.