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>Semiconductor in general is going bust, too much supply. TSMC literally can't make chips fast enough. Companies are competing for wafers. >you also have too

>Semiconductor in general is going bust, too much supply. TSMC literally can't make chips fast enough. Companies are competing for wafers. >you also have too many players in the market How? There are a handful of companies on the planet that can do 7nm process chips and below. Western Digital had an issue with its fab in 2022 and that alone was apparently enough to increase NAND flash prices by 10%.

rowanG077 3y ago
I almost can't believe this comment. TSMC literally has an entire paragraph in parents comment that addresses it. The comment is about the much larger semiconductor business, not bleeding edge. I fail to see from any perspective how you can read that comment and post this.
- jonwachob91 3y ago
  Parents Comment >> People talk a lot about TSMC and the bleeding edge business(computers, phones), but that's just one part of it, but there's a whole industry of embarked software that will likely be much bigger. Your comment >> TSMC literally has an entire paragraph in parents comment that addresses it. That looks like a single sentence, not an entire paragraph... And it's a paragraph without supporting evidence. No shocker c7DJTLrn wasn't convinced about parent commenters weak claim.
  - rowanG077 3y ago
    The sentence is obviously delineated by two newlines. A paragraph made of a single sentence. The paragraph is so obvious that I would never expect anyone to question it. TSMC is a mere 12.5% of global semiconductor market in 2022.
    - reisse 3y ago
      There is no global semiconductor market. Saying it exists is the same thing as saying that global vehicle market exists and Boeing competes with Ford in making the best selling vehicle. There is, however, "consumer chips foundry market", which is dominated by TSMC with 55%+ market share. And TSMC's market share is limited only because of their production capacity.
      - rowanG077 3y ago
        A vehicle is a finished good. A semiconductor is a semi-manufacture. Comparing it to a finished good with an end-user purpose is nonsensical. You could compare the global semiconductor market to, for example, the global steel market.
        simne 3y ago
        Semiconductor market is PARTIALLY finished good, if we consider creators market (gigs economy), where sell microcontrollers (RPI2040), and some other semiconductors. It is market of small series custom devices, prototypes (like Oculus Rift), aftermarket upgrades, like cars tuning. Yes, creators market is not too large, total number of sells just around million, but it exists. BTW it is interest question, how large part of steel market also belong to creators market, if it is larger than semiconductor creators market.
- c7DJTLrn 3y ago
  Are you referring to this? >People talk a lot about TSMC and the bleeding edge business(computers, phones), but that's just one part of it, but there's a whole industry of embarked software that will likely be much bigger. I have no idea what "embarked software" means. So-called "bleeding edge" makes up a significant portion of semiconductor profits, so how can you disregard that and say semiconductor is going bust?
  - azraellzanella 3y ago
    My guess: embarked -> embedded OP's name sounds brazillian, where embedded is called embarcado.
    - thiago_fm 3y ago
      Yeah sorry, my bad, it's embedded :-)
  - thiago_fm 3y ago
    Semiconductor profits !== revenue. Those semiconductor companies can make lots of revenue, but operate on thin margins, because a competitor can also build a fab. Think graphic cards, Radeon(now AMD) has consistently built worse graphic cards, with less R&D, but sold at a cheaper price point and survived throughout the years. TSMC has some extra expertise that others doesn't, and has good profit margins because of that, but together with NVidia, they are the champions, and others are constantly catching up. As with many things in a capitalist system, prices face a race to the bottom. Related to bleeding edge fab. 14nm has suffered some shortages, but even that has changed. One example is Apple, even though they've managed to increase their revenues (and products sold) a lot because of Covid, that demand is down. Apple is projected to have less revenues this year than the last years. The same has happened with PC sales. What has been really driving revenues and profits up in this space is AI. I don't believe this will continue. More competition will drive profits down, meaning it'll be a less attractive field to invest for VCs or investors. Semiconductor business is more akin to package food products in my point of view. Some products can enjoy a nice margin because of their brand, taste or being hyped at a specific moment, but the majority of it compete on thin margins. It isn't like Meta, a closed garden, that has plenty of data and have a product that got everybody addicted and dependant on it, either social networks or communications, that because of network effects is extremely sticky. Where only regulations and government intervention could pose a risk to it. But wall street and people's expectations(and valuations) on semiconductors is suddenly as if they are building the next monopoly. Monopolies only exist because there's only one, what I see is a reaaaally fragmented market, with high CAPEX, thin margins and low moat.
marcosdumay 3y ago
I strongly suggest anybody commenting about the situation of 6 months ago to play this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game At 2020, a lot of people were saying that no, the executives on those companies know about the problem, of course they'll be able to avoid it. Yet, here we are. (Anyway, the game is supposed to be played by people that were instructed about the problem. But you can try it with naive people before instructing them too. It doesn't make a difference.) TSMC specifically may be able to avoid it. They are in a different market from most players, with less players that maybe are close enough to act to avoid it. I still wouldn't bet on it.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
phkahler 3y ago
>> TSMC literally can't make chips fast enough. Companies are competing for wafers. That's interesting since Samsung is their primary competitor at the advanced nodes. It takes time and money to move though as fabs aren't completely fungible.

rowanG077 3y ago

I almost can't believe this comment. TSMC literally has an entire paragraph in parents comment that addresses it. The comment is about the much larger semiconductor business, not bleeding edge. I fail to see from any perspective how you can read that comment and post this.

jonwachob91 3y ago
Parents Comment >> People talk a lot about TSMC and the bleeding edge business(computers, phones), but that's just one part of it, but there's a whole industry of embarked software that will likely be much bigger. Your comment >> TSMC literally has an entire paragraph in parents comment that addresses it. That looks like a single sentence, not an entire paragraph... And it's a paragraph without supporting evidence. No shocker c7DJTLrn wasn't convinced about parent commenters weak claim.
- rowanG077 3y ago
  The sentence is obviously delineated by two newlines. A paragraph made of a single sentence. The paragraph is so obvious that I would never expect anyone to question it. TSMC is a mere 12.5% of global semiconductor market in 2022.
  - reisse 3y ago
    There is no global semiconductor market. Saying it exists is the same thing as saying that global vehicle market exists and Boeing competes with Ford in making the best selling vehicle. There is, however, "consumer chips foundry market", which is dominated by TSMC with 55%+ market share. And TSMC's market share is limited only because of their production capacity.
    - rowanG077 3y ago
      A vehicle is a finished good. A semiconductor is a semi-manufacture. Comparing it to a finished good with an end-user purpose is nonsensical. You could compare the global semiconductor market to, for example, the global steel market.
      - simne 3y ago
        Semiconductor market is PARTIALLY finished good, if we consider creators market (gigs economy), where sell microcontrollers (RPI2040), and some other semiconductors. It is market of small series custom devices, prototypes (like Oculus Rift), aftermarket upgrades, like cars tuning. Yes, creators market is not too large, total number of sells just around million, but it exists. BTW it is interest question, how large part of steel market also belong to creators market, if it is larger than semiconductor creators market.
c7DJTLrn 3y ago
Are you referring to this? >People talk a lot about TSMC and the bleeding edge business(computers, phones), but that's just one part of it, but there's a whole industry of embarked software that will likely be much bigger. I have no idea what "embarked software" means. So-called "bleeding edge" makes up a significant portion of semiconductor profits, so how can you disregard that and say semiconductor is going bust?
- azraellzanella 3y ago
  My guess: embarked -> embedded OP's name sounds brazillian, where embedded is called embarcado.
  - thiago_fm 3y ago
    Yeah sorry, my bad, it's embedded :-)
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  Semiconductor profits !== revenue. Those semiconductor companies can make lots of revenue, but operate on thin margins, because a competitor can also build a fab. Think graphic cards, Radeon(now AMD) has consistently built worse graphic cards, with less R&D, but sold at a cheaper price point and survived throughout the years. TSMC has some extra expertise that others doesn't, and has good profit margins because of that, but together with NVidia, they are the champions, and others are constantly catching up. As with many things in a capitalist system, prices face a race to the bottom. Related to bleeding edge fab. 14nm has suffered some shortages, but even that has changed. One example is Apple, even though they've managed to increase their revenues (and products sold) a lot because of Covid, that demand is down. Apple is projected to have less revenues this year than the last years. The same has happened with PC sales. What has been really driving revenues and profits up in this space is AI. I don't believe this will continue. More competition will drive profits down, meaning it'll be a less attractive field to invest for VCs or investors. Semiconductor business is more akin to package food products in my point of view. Some products can enjoy a nice margin because of their brand, taste or being hyped at a specific moment, but the majority of it compete on thin margins. It isn't like Meta, a closed garden, that has plenty of data and have a product that got everybody addicted and dependant on it, either social networks or communications, that because of network effects is extremely sticky. Where only regulations and government intervention could pose a risk to it. But wall street and people's expectations(and valuations) on semiconductors is suddenly as if they are building the next monopoly. Monopolies only exist because there's only one, what I see is a reaaaally fragmented market, with high CAPEX, thin margins and low moat.

marcosdumay 3y ago

I strongly suggest anybody commenting about the situation of 6 months ago to play this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game At 2020, a lot of people were saying that no, the executives on those companies know about the problem, of course they'll be able to avoid it. Yet, here we are. (Anyway, the game is supposed to be played by people that were instructed about the problem. But you can try it with naive people before instructing them too. It doesn't make a difference.) TSMC specifically may be able to avoid it. They are in a different market from most players, with less players that maybe are close enough to act to avoid it. I still wouldn't bet on it.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

phkahler 3y ago

>> TSMC literally can't make chips fast enough. Companies are competing for wafers. That's interesting since Samsung is their primary competitor at the advanced nodes. It takes time and money to move though as fabs aren't completely fungible.