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For those who are curious about a serious analysis of China's foreign development policies, rather than a misinformational blog post: https://www.chathamhouse.

For those who are curious about a serious analysis of China's foreign development policies, rather than a misinformational blog post: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/08/debunking-myth-debt-trap-diplomacy https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/08/debunking-myth-debt-tra... That one is from 2020 but there are a lot of serious people looking at these complex issues.

preciousoo 3y ago
“As a Kenyan official put it: Every time China visits we get a hospital, every time Britain visits we get a lecture.”
- UncleSlacky 3y ago
  Which led to this classic exchange: https://twitter.com/stillreezy/status/1507445282778206209 https://twitter.com/stillreezy/status/1507445282778206209
  - greggsy 3y ago
    That enrico account seems a bit iffy. Seems somewhat biased towards trump, Russia, China (maybe NK too?), and consistently against Biden and Ukraine (but nothing else?)?
stale2002 3y ago
> That one is from 2020 Then it is outdated. The new information related to the belt and road project's failures has only started to come up in the last couple years. I can understand why someone who doesn't have the updated information, based on recent economic data, would have a more nuanced view. But we have the new information now.
- littlestymaar 3y ago
  Even if it's not perfect, better have outdated informed point of view than “up to date” gut feeling from a pundit though…
TulliusCicero 3y ago
Is the chart in the blog wrong? Because it looks like investments for Belt & Road have collapsed, which would be odd if it had been a success rather than a failure.
- yorwba 3y ago
  The report isn't arguing that it was a success rather than a failure. Their figure 1 is a similar chart, lacking a few years of data, but since the inflection point was back in 2016 that doesn't really matter.
hackandthink 3y ago
It is a hard problem. Poor countries need a lot of investment (0). Historically many investments failed and creditors ruined the country and made live of the involved people even more miserable. My gut feeling is that chinese investors are a little bit smarter but there are obviously problems as well. (another gut feeling: china has too much money, they can't invest in US treasuries anymore) (1) This US/China conflict is just stupid. Nearly everybody looses. (0) Adam Tooze "The west has failed to keep its promises on aid" https://www.ft.com/content/75d35382-32e4-4548-82e6-0d20d99847cf https://www.ft.com/content/75d35382-32e4-4548-82e6-0d20d9984... (1) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/dedollarization-china-economy-treasury-bond-market-outlook-selling-american-debt-2023-8?op=1 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/dedollarizati...
- hakfoo 3y ago
  Part of the reason that developing-world investment has traditionally been hard is because it likely requires a longer perspective than most investors have. Build a decent rail network in Laos and it might take 75 years for them to leverage it to a level of development that pays it back, which gives you 75 years of risk it might all come crashing down. You can't float that meaningfully on the public markets, but a state can justify it, both because they can wait on the payback, and swallow the loss if they have to, and because they can value the economic cooperation and dependency it generates. I wonder if an alternate route would be to use aid money as subsidy to attract private investment. Juice the yield on bonds to too-compelling-to-ignore, or offer backfill on short-term revenues if the project is speculative, and you could attract the world's financiers. On the other hand, perhaps there's a hostility to existing finance to begin with. A lot of the developing world has had bad experiences with the mainstream Western financial system-- their banks and associated institutions are the ones coming in and demanding austerity, privatizations, and currency manipulations to settle their debts. Perhaps China just represents a fresh face: all they need to do is squeeze a little less to look good by comparison.
  - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
    It also requires something that western capitalism doesn't really structure itself around: an actual moral compass that isn't just shadow imperialism which is what "confessions of an economic hitman" involves. You'd want to genuinely want improvement for the people. Not for enriching a new set of brutal and corrupt elites that will do the bidding of the CIA/IMF/whatever, but actually want the people's lives improved in living standards, education, economic independence, etc. Kind of like how China fast-forwarded themselves. In rose tinted glasses, I can see the Belt and Road kinda being like that, but of course it left out the development of manufacturing / stealing of technology that really underpinned China's rise.
georgeecollins 3y ago
I think it is true of Chinese development and western aid as well that the rich country gets the blame. The poor country is sometimes corrupt or ineffective. They could also say no.

preciousoo 3y ago

“As a Kenyan official put it: Every time China visits we get a hospital, every time Britain visits we get a lecture.”

UncleSlacky 3y ago
Which led to this classic exchange: https://twitter.com/stillreezy/status/1507445282778206209 https://twitter.com/stillreezy/status/1507445282778206209
- greggsy 3y ago
  That enrico account seems a bit iffy. Seems somewhat biased towards trump, Russia, China (maybe NK too?), and consistently against Biden and Ukraine (but nothing else?)?

stale2002 3y ago

> That one is from 2020 Then it is outdated. The new information related to the belt and road project's failures has only started to come up in the last couple years. I can understand why someone who doesn't have the updated information, based on recent economic data, would have a more nuanced view. But we have the new information now.

littlestymaar 3y ago
Even if it's not perfect, better have outdated informed point of view than “up to date” gut feeling from a pundit though…

TulliusCicero 3y ago

Is the chart in the blog wrong? Because it looks like investments for Belt & Road have collapsed, which would be odd if it had been a success rather than a failure.

yorwba 3y ago
The report isn't arguing that it was a success rather than a failure. Their figure 1 is a similar chart, lacking a few years of data, but since the inflection point was back in 2016 that doesn't really matter.

hackandthink 3y ago

It is a hard problem. Poor countries need a lot of investment (0). Historically many investments failed and creditors ruined the country and made live of the involved people even more miserable. My gut feeling is that chinese investors are a little bit smarter but there are obviously problems as well. (another gut feeling: china has too much money, they can't invest in US treasuries anymore) (1) This US/China conflict is just stupid. Nearly everybody looses. (0) Adam Tooze "The west has failed to keep its promises on aid" https://www.ft.com/content/75d35382-32e4-4548-82e6-0d20d99847cf https://www.ft.com/content/75d35382-32e4-4548-82e6-0d20d9984... (1) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/dedollarization-china-economy-treasury-bond-market-outlook-selling-american-debt-2023-8?op=1 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/dedollarizati...

hakfoo 3y ago
Part of the reason that developing-world investment has traditionally been hard is because it likely requires a longer perspective than most investors have. Build a decent rail network in Laos and it might take 75 years for them to leverage it to a level of development that pays it back, which gives you 75 years of risk it might all come crashing down. You can't float that meaningfully on the public markets, but a state can justify it, both because they can wait on the payback, and swallow the loss if they have to, and because they can value the economic cooperation and dependency it generates. I wonder if an alternate route would be to use aid money as subsidy to attract private investment. Juice the yield on bonds to too-compelling-to-ignore, or offer backfill on short-term revenues if the project is speculative, and you could attract the world's financiers. On the other hand, perhaps there's a hostility to existing finance to begin with. A lot of the developing world has had bad experiences with the mainstream Western financial system-- their banks and associated institutions are the ones coming in and demanding austerity, privatizations, and currency manipulations to settle their debts. Perhaps China just represents a fresh face: all they need to do is squeeze a little less to look good by comparison.
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  It also requires something that western capitalism doesn't really structure itself around: an actual moral compass that isn't just shadow imperialism which is what "confessions of an economic hitman" involves. You'd want to genuinely want improvement for the people. Not for enriching a new set of brutal and corrupt elites that will do the bidding of the CIA/IMF/whatever, but actually want the people's lives improved in living standards, education, economic independence, etc. Kind of like how China fast-forwarded themselves. In rose tinted glasses, I can see the Belt and Road kinda being like that, but of course it left out the development of manufacturing / stealing of technology that really underpinned China's rise.

georgeecollins 3y ago

I think it is true of Chinese development and western aid as well that the rich country gets the blame. The poor country is sometimes corrupt or ineffective. They could also say no.