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Although the body of this article is about Covid policies and vaccine usage, which seems to have set off a whole round of discussion here on that topic, my sens
by plaidfuji 3y ago
Although the body of this article is about Covid policies and vaccine usage, which seems to have set off a whole round of discussion here on that topic, my sense was that the point of this article was more general:
> So my aim is generally to focus on stylized facts that are true and robust. And to keep repeating them. I like simple (or simple-seeming) claims that — and I can’t emphasize this last part enough — I expect will hold up to scrutiny.
As somebody who presents results of analyses and models for a living, I couldn’t agree more. Present the simplest possible finding that gets the point across and move on. Maybe mention “and this holds up when accounting for x, y, z”, or just keep those analyses in the backup slides in case you have a feisty audience member. Nobody cares how complex your model is, just that it works.
- gpt5 3y agoTo be fair, COVID's death rate has such a strong association with (very) old age, that not accounting for it is quite questionable. In the article, Nate mentioned himself that Mormon population is 100x higher in Utah and that's a significant effect. The COVID death rate of over 85 years old is more than 100x higher than the very young. I'm not questioning the results, just that accounting for age when analyzing COVID is definitely a reasonable question to ask for any conclusion.