6 ms·

It feels like every country (that is not the US) has a legend about how the X company could have been the next Apple/IBM/Microsoft if it weren't for evil/corrup

It feels like every country (that is not the US) has a legend about how the X company could have been the next Apple/IBM/Microsoft if it weren't for evil/corrupt/incompetent politicians. Usually these stories fall apart on closer inspection. Not surprisingly, this story doesn't pass my smell test either. It's very light on details. It also talks a lot about the thoughts in Bill Gates' head, but fails to provide any quotes to back them up.

huytersd 3y ago
It’s easy to frame “could have been” stories and is an efficient route for soft nationalism.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
The style of argument in the article is so weird because, at least to me, it has the exact opposite effect of what I presume the author intended. It just sounds like over-the-top nationalistic sour grapes, even if I give it the benefit of the doubt and assume the factual details (which are rather few and far between) are true. Which is a big shame I think because I'd be very interested to know more about the TRON project and how it compared to other OSes of the day. I went to the Wikipedia page, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project, which unfortunately suffers from the same semi-ridiculous bias: "The project's goal is to create an ideal computer architecture and network, to provide for all of society's needs." Who writes shit like that?
- manxman 3y ago
  Just visited Japan for a couple of months. The big tech retailer there is "BIC Camera" which contrary to the name sells everything from Cameras to Macs/PCs to drones and pretty much all consumer electronics. 20 years ago it had a bunch of interest stuff that wasn't available in the west and was typically better constructed than the stuff we got. Now it's way behind the curve. PCs and accessories that I've not seen in UK/US stores for over a decade. Fax machines are still a thing and sold new. But outside of such curiosities, it's interesting looking at where Japanese tech has sunk. The Japanese can't bear to stock Samsung/LG televisions for reasons of national prime one presumes. So there are a bunch of locally branded televisions that seem antiquated - a far cry from the era where Sony held the crown for top end displays. The PC vendors from Sony Vaio to Toshiba/Dynabook are gone or diminished. The consumer electronics/home electronics that once were interesting look increasingly dated given the Japanese obsession with putting lots of confusing buttons on their products instead of cleaning up the user experience (Japanese toilets are a great example of this... press the wrong button and get violated!) And of course the camera section of BIC Camera is perhaps the most interesting predictor of where Japan's tech industry is headed. Sure the latest Canon, Nikon and Sony mirrorless cameras are amazing feats of engineering. The problem is that the cameras in phones have become so good that for 99% of the market, the camera in their phone is more than sufficient. So the Japanese camera vendors have become and will continue to will become increasingly niche. Of course the DJI drones next to the camera section offer capabilities the mirrorless variety can't match. So even more of the Japanese core tech industry will get eaten by China. Pair all of the above with 260% debt to GDP (which is insanely insane even compared to the US/Europe), a population demographic pyramid showing not just an aging population but one that's rapidly declining and an economy that seems build on smoke and mirrors (go into any 7-Eleven and see unbelievably low prices for convenience groceries compared to any US/European store). Such businesses are part of what I'm told is an extensive network of zombie corporations that are run at a loss, subsidised by the banks in order for the banks to get aid/subsidies from the Japanese Government. Then there's Toyota. Once a clear leader in both fossil fuel and hybrid cars that now has to issue press releases about future battery tech that isn't even close to production. They lag behind both Tesla and the European electric car vendors in actual offerings. Likewise Nissan's electric offerings look increasingly uncompetitive between their shenanigans getting their former non-Japanese CEO thrown in jail. If these aren't enough - look around Japan outside of the 5 major cities. So much of the mid tier and smaller parts of Japan have been starved of cash. Cities built at the peak in the 80s and 90s with no signs of new development in 20-30 years. My conclusion: Japan Inc. is a Ponzi scheme that Bernie Madoff would have loved to have conceived, veiled in superficial politeness intermingled with lots of courteous smiles and bows.
  - throwaway4good 3y ago
    Yep. Anyone going to Japan looking for a dose of techno orientalism will be disappointed. Perhaps go to China if you are looking for tech unlike what you find in the west.
    - hennyting 3y ago
      [flagged]
  - flashback2199 3y ago
    Wow I did not know this about this country near the world's highest per capita GDP. What is the best way to short an entire country? /s
    - manxman 3y ago
      Near highest... you sure about that? https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-per-capita https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-per-capi...
      - flashback2199 3y ago
        Lower than I remembered. Oops.
      - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
        Wow, looking at that table of GDP per capita makes you realize what a crazy outlier the US is. Every country ahead of the US is either a relatively teeny financial haven, or in the case of Norway and Qatar, small petrostates. I'd say the only other countries that are even close in terms of overall economic structure that are near the US in GDP per capita are Denmark and Australia, and they are still significantly behind.
  - Wxc2jjJmST9XWWL 3y ago
    Alright, hold those horses. A few points I'd like to make regarding your assumptions and my view of Japan, which I'm not claiming is fully correct, but has a different perspective to offer: a) I'm not an expert, but Japan's debt is mostly domestically owned (companies in Japan, Bank of Japan, et cetera) and they hold huge reserves in foreign currencies. Economics is more complicated than a simple debt figure, and I'm not well informed about the details, but the ratio of "debt to GDP" by itself isn't the holy grail as far as I know. Devil's in the details. It's a huge problem, but not as large as the number by itself indicates. b) Japan is self contained. They have a unique self contained non-extremely-western-poisoned culture, an aging population without relying on immigration, their ethnicity makeup is 98% Japanese (I'm sure them being an island, the language and culture barrier are a factor). Find that bad or good, but I think there's something to that, and I think it's important when discussing their culture or their country. c) Japan is a paradise for geeks, regarding how many possessions are treated and treasured. You've seen outdated tech and thought it was bad? I'm here ordering old consoles, games, dvds, books from Japan and the condition "slightly worn" from a Japenese seller is the American equivalent to "As good as new, perfect condition". Japan is a paradise for cameras, old game consoles, hard to find hardware, watches, ... arcades you wouldn't be able to find in any other country because they've given way to "the times" in other countries... you see a fax machine, or I guess potentially minidisc player, a discman, old cassette player... sold as "new" and think it's bad? I'd love the fact and buy all of them... d) Toyota is one of the top 10 companies by revenue in the world, still one of the largest car manufacturers, and famous (among other Japanese companies) for efficient and world pioneering management techniques... Japan has the third highest GDP and ranks 19th in the HDI... is it maybe too soon to sing their demise? Not picking a fight, but from my perspective your comment comes off as condescending, culturally biased and close-minded... Deriding a whole country/culture/economy because of how you interpreted certain things while visiting...you're citing Japanese toilet buttons as an example for their technological demise given their bad UI (having buttons)? Should it be voice controlled, have a touch panel, connect via Bluetooth to your smartphone and have its own bespoke App, offer fancy usage statistics... You were there for months and this is your cynical take? How could I, as an outsider applying a similar spirit to yours, rate China (censorship, the CCP, inequality, corruption, certain infrastructure projects, technological tracking), the US (politics, cultural crazes, depression, high school system, prison system, weapons, policing), Europe (immigration and identity crisis, EU, ...), Russia/Ukraine..., Mexico, Brazil,... This is meant to illustrate: a cynical take is easy to come by...
- ChoHag 3y ago
  [dead]
- smsm42 3y ago
  > "The project's goal is to create an ideal computer architecture and network, to provide for all of society's needs." Who writes shit like that? Quacks do. That's a good way to know a quack - they are often too greedy for their own good. If you see a remedy which cures common cold, cancer, rheumatism and autism, all with no side effects whatsoever - you know it's bullshit. If you have somebody who can do anything, and be excellent at it - you have a con man. If you have a software system that is ideal for any use - it's a scam. Real good things always have requirements and limitations, and the more complex the goal is, the more requirements and limitations there are. If my career in software taught me something is that one of the basic principles is "the right tool for the right job", and there's no tool that is perfect for every job, and can't be.
xattt 3y ago
Part of it is how geeks like us were promised a tech utopia on shows like Beyond 2000 in the late 80s and early 90s. Those shows were fun to watch, but most of it didn’t scale up and ended up as vapourware.
duxup 3y ago
I was hoping to hear more about TRON but instead the article goes in a different direction.
- rramadass 3y ago
  Wikipedia is always the good place to start from : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project
  - duxup 3y ago
    I appreciate the link, but also Wikipedia is kinda a pain for some technical things. The absolute minimum and technically correct descriptions are so often ... not very illuminating. Granted it's not Wikipedia's point, but it also makes their article's hard to digest at times.
pbhjpbhj 3y ago
>how the X company could have been the next Apple/IBM/Microsoft if it weren't for evil/corrupt/incompetent politicians // Surely it's the other way around, companies only get this big and powerful by abusing their power, and probably politicians helping them (if only to boost a private share portfolio) instead of adding for the people? So if your political system works (applies morality to business, favours the demos over corporate power) you're not going to get these sorts of mega-corporations. Not sure if IBM fit that category, but Apple and Microsoft seem to.

huytersd 3y ago

It’s easy to frame “could have been” stories and is an efficient route for soft nationalism.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

The style of argument in the article is so weird because, at least to me, it has the exact opposite effect of what I presume the author intended. It just sounds like over-the-top nationalistic sour grapes, even if I give it the benefit of the doubt and assume the factual details (which are rather few and far between) are true. Which is a big shame I think because I'd be very interested to know more about the TRON project and how it compared to other OSes of the day. I went to the Wikipedia page, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project, which unfortunately suffers from the same semi-ridiculous bias: "The project's goal is to create an ideal computer architecture and network, to provide for all of society's needs." Who writes shit like that?

manxman 3y ago
Just visited Japan for a couple of months. The big tech retailer there is "BIC Camera" which contrary to the name sells everything from Cameras to Macs/PCs to drones and pretty much all consumer electronics. 20 years ago it had a bunch of interest stuff that wasn't available in the west and was typically better constructed than the stuff we got. Now it's way behind the curve. PCs and accessories that I've not seen in UK/US stores for over a decade. Fax machines are still a thing and sold new. But outside of such curiosities, it's interesting looking at where Japanese tech has sunk. The Japanese can't bear to stock Samsung/LG televisions for reasons of national prime one presumes. So there are a bunch of locally branded televisions that seem antiquated - a far cry from the era where Sony held the crown for top end displays. The PC vendors from Sony Vaio to Toshiba/Dynabook are gone or diminished. The consumer electronics/home electronics that once were interesting look increasingly dated given the Japanese obsession with putting lots of confusing buttons on their products instead of cleaning up the user experience (Japanese toilets are a great example of this... press the wrong button and get violated!) And of course the camera section of BIC Camera is perhaps the most interesting predictor of where Japan's tech industry is headed. Sure the latest Canon, Nikon and Sony mirrorless cameras are amazing feats of engineering. The problem is that the cameras in phones have become so good that for 99% of the market, the camera in their phone is more than sufficient. So the Japanese camera vendors have become and will continue to will become increasingly niche. Of course the DJI drones next to the camera section offer capabilities the mirrorless variety can't match. So even more of the Japanese core tech industry will get eaten by China. Pair all of the above with 260% debt to GDP (which is insanely insane even compared to the US/Europe), a population demographic pyramid showing not just an aging population but one that's rapidly declining and an economy that seems build on smoke and mirrors (go into any 7-Eleven and see unbelievably low prices for convenience groceries compared to any US/European store). Such businesses are part of what I'm told is an extensive network of zombie corporations that are run at a loss, subsidised by the banks in order for the banks to get aid/subsidies from the Japanese Government. Then there's Toyota. Once a clear leader in both fossil fuel and hybrid cars that now has to issue press releases about future battery tech that isn't even close to production. They lag behind both Tesla and the European electric car vendors in actual offerings. Likewise Nissan's electric offerings look increasingly uncompetitive between their shenanigans getting their former non-Japanese CEO thrown in jail. If these aren't enough - look around Japan outside of the 5 major cities. So much of the mid tier and smaller parts of Japan have been starved of cash. Cities built at the peak in the 80s and 90s with no signs of new development in 20-30 years. My conclusion: Japan Inc. is a Ponzi scheme that Bernie Madoff would have loved to have conceived, veiled in superficial politeness intermingled with lots of courteous smiles and bows.
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  Yep. Anyone going to Japan looking for a dose of techno orientalism will be disappointed. Perhaps go to China if you are looking for tech unlike what you find in the west.
  - hennyting 3y ago
    [flagged]
- flashback2199 3y ago
  Wow I did not know this about this country near the world's highest per capita GDP. What is the best way to short an entire country? /s
  - manxman 3y ago
    Near highest... you sure about that? https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-per-capita https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-per-capi...
    - flashback2199 3y ago
      Lower than I remembered. Oops.
    - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
      Wow, looking at that table of GDP per capita makes you realize what a crazy outlier the US is. Every country ahead of the US is either a relatively teeny financial haven, or in the case of Norway and Qatar, small petrostates. I'd say the only other countries that are even close in terms of overall economic structure that are near the US in GDP per capita are Denmark and Australia, and they are still significantly behind.
- Wxc2jjJmST9XWWL 3y ago
  Alright, hold those horses. A few points I'd like to make regarding your assumptions and my view of Japan, which I'm not claiming is fully correct, but has a different perspective to offer: a) I'm not an expert, but Japan's debt is mostly domestically owned (companies in Japan, Bank of Japan, et cetera) and they hold huge reserves in foreign currencies. Economics is more complicated than a simple debt figure, and I'm not well informed about the details, but the ratio of "debt to GDP" by itself isn't the holy grail as far as I know. Devil's in the details. It's a huge problem, but not as large as the number by itself indicates. b) Japan is self contained. They have a unique self contained non-extremely-western-poisoned culture, an aging population without relying on immigration, their ethnicity makeup is 98% Japanese (I'm sure them being an island, the language and culture barrier are a factor). Find that bad or good, but I think there's something to that, and I think it's important when discussing their culture or their country. c) Japan is a paradise for geeks, regarding how many possessions are treated and treasured. You've seen outdated tech and thought it was bad? I'm here ordering old consoles, games, dvds, books from Japan and the condition "slightly worn" from a Japenese seller is the American equivalent to "As good as new, perfect condition". Japan is a paradise for cameras, old game consoles, hard to find hardware, watches, ... arcades you wouldn't be able to find in any other country because they've given way to "the times" in other countries... you see a fax machine, or I guess potentially minidisc player, a discman, old cassette player... sold as "new" and think it's bad? I'd love the fact and buy all of them... d) Toyota is one of the top 10 companies by revenue in the world, still one of the largest car manufacturers, and famous (among other Japanese companies) for efficient and world pioneering management techniques... Japan has the third highest GDP and ranks 19th in the HDI... is it maybe too soon to sing their demise? Not picking a fight, but from my perspective your comment comes off as condescending, culturally biased and close-minded... Deriding a whole country/culture/economy because of how you interpreted certain things while visiting...you're citing Japanese toilet buttons as an example for their technological demise given their bad UI (having buttons)? Should it be voice controlled, have a touch panel, connect via Bluetooth to your smartphone and have its own bespoke App, offer fancy usage statistics... You were there for months and this is your cynical take? How could I, as an outsider applying a similar spirit to yours, rate China (censorship, the CCP, inequality, corruption, certain infrastructure projects, technological tracking), the US (politics, cultural crazes, depression, high school system, prison system, weapons, policing), Europe (immigration and identity crisis, EU, ...), Russia/Ukraine..., Mexico, Brazil,... This is meant to illustrate: a cynical take is easy to come by...
ChoHag 3y ago
[dead]
smsm42 3y ago
> "The project's goal is to create an ideal computer architecture and network, to provide for all of society's needs." Who writes shit like that? Quacks do. That's a good way to know a quack - they are often too greedy for their own good. If you see a remedy which cures common cold, cancer, rheumatism and autism, all with no side effects whatsoever - you know it's bullshit. If you have somebody who can do anything, and be excellent at it - you have a con man. If you have a software system that is ideal for any use - it's a scam. Real good things always have requirements and limitations, and the more complex the goal is, the more requirements and limitations there are. If my career in software taught me something is that one of the basic principles is "the right tool for the right job", and there's no tool that is perfect for every job, and can't be.

xattt 3y ago

Part of it is how geeks like us were promised a tech utopia on shows like Beyond 2000 in the late 80s and early 90s. Those shows were fun to watch, but most of it didn’t scale up and ended up as vapourware.

duxup 3y ago

I was hoping to hear more about TRON but instead the article goes in a different direction.

rramadass 3y ago
Wikipedia is always the good place to start from : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project
- duxup 3y ago
  I appreciate the link, but also Wikipedia is kinda a pain for some technical things. The absolute minimum and technically correct descriptions are so often ... not very illuminating. Granted it's not Wikipedia's point, but it also makes their article's hard to digest at times.

pbhjpbhj 3y ago

>how the X company could have been the next Apple/IBM/Microsoft if it weren't for evil/corrupt/incompetent politicians // Surely it's the other way around, companies only get this big and powerful by abusing their power, and probably politicians helping them (if only to boost a private share portfolio) instead of adding for the people? So if your political system works (applies morality to business, favours the demos over corporate power) you're not going to get these sorts of mega-corporations. Not sure if IBM fit that category, but Apple and Microsoft seem to.