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>the future more valuable than the present to pay off that debt. Your comment seems to imply something negative about debt, when in fact it's exactly the answe

>the future more valuable than the present to pay off that debt. Your comment seems to imply something negative about debt, when in fact it's exactly the answer you're looking for. Debt allows people to build things now at the expense of future earnings; it pulls forward technological advances. Surely there are better ways to organize society, but easy debt is not inherently terrible.

Beijinger 3y ago
"Your comment seems to imply something negative about debt, when in fact it's exactly the answer you're looking for. Debt allows people to build things now at the expense of future earnings; it pulls forward technological advances." Yes, but wealth and energy are linked. And debt can only be paid off with more debt. This is no problem, as long as the future is getting better and richer. In a finite world, this must come to an end at one point. "Surely there are better ways to organize society, but easy debt is not inherently terrible" Nobody has been able to come up with a better way. And there is some inherent danger in this. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-state-economy-except-at-a-very-basic-level/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-sta...
- ForHackernews 3y ago
  Theoretically if AI, fusion power, asteroid mining etc. come to pass, many resources we think of as finite might become functionally unlimited. A post-scarcity society could optimise for human happiness, rather than optimising for workers to keep the machines turning.
  - abeppu 3y ago
    This only works if we all change our attitudes and values. But if we changed our values, we could optimize for human happiness today.
    - abeppu 3y ago
      Also, reframing only slightly, to a preindustrial person who spent all their time producing calories or spinning/weaving fiber for clothes, we're a post-scarcity society. We have so many calories it's making us sick and so much clothing we have to export discarded unused clothes. That hasn't meant we stopped chasing ever greater wealth just bc we can more than supply our needs. We just find more and more extravagant things to want. Once we have asteroid mining, a generation of wealthy people will want their own space stations, or fusion-driven space craft or something.
  - Beijinger 3y ago
    Nope https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ "But let’s not overlook the key point: continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes. " And Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy...
    - Retric 3y ago
      Track the total energy used by humanity and it’s almost all sunlight used to grow plants the same way it’s been used for thousands of years. It looks nothing like the 2.3% exponential curve pulled out of a hat by that article. There’s little reason to suspect future advanced societies will even vaguely approach a 0.1% increase in total energy demand per year when human population stalls out. Nobody wants to heat their house to 10,000f or cool to cryogenic temperatures. Energy demand is therefore simply a question of technological progress and rates of growth in energy use is surprisingly slow for the top economies.
    - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
      Nope Reminds of the NYT article on the impossibility of flight.
      - fastneutron 3y ago
        Care to elaborate? Are you envisioning some decoupling of energy and economic growth?
    - zeroonetwothree 3y ago
      The chart at the beginning already shows we don’t fit the trend anymore. So the whole premise is nonsense
    - ForHackernews 3y ago
      Shades of https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/ > The merciless growth illustrated above means that in 1400 years from now, any source of energy we harness would have to outshine the sun. Cool, we can worry about this in 1000 years? This article is silly because the whole point of the OP is that population growth will not continue, so it's reasonable to assume that energy consumption will also plateau.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > debt can only be paid off with more debt This is totally untrue. Debt can be paid with new debt or growth.
  - pavlov 3y ago
    Debt can also be simply written off. There is a long practice of mass debt relief called a jubilee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee In the Bible, references are made to a Hebrew jubilee every 49 years when “slaves and prisoners would be freed, debts would be forgiven, and the mercies of God would be particularly manifest.” The permanence of debt is an illusion created by our current political and economical system.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > long practice of mass debt relief called a jubilee The concept has long heritage. In reality, very few actual debt forgivenesses are documented. Note, too, that in a Malthusian economy, debt has a tendency to be wealth transferring: the capital capacity of the system is limited. In a growing economy, that need not be the case. > permanence of debt is an illusion created by our current political and economical system We continuously poof debt. It’s called bankruptcy.
      - pavlov 3y ago
        Not just bankruptcy, as there are other, less drastic kinds of write-offs that commonly occur.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        You’re right, I should have said restructuring. Jubilees are a crude predecessor to lawful restructuring.
    - api 3y ago
      We write off debt via two methods: bankruptcy and inflation. The latter effectively writes down the principal of all outstanding debt. If we hit hard limits to growth it might actually look like a boom for a while, a very inflationary one where number go up a lot. In reality a lot of debt is being vaporized and prices are going up.
Ekaros 3y ago
There is at least two ways to use debt. One is to build a machine, a road or whatever that increase productivity. So invest a million and you manufacture 10% more a year with same labour or even material input. This is great. And then there is getting debt to pay your daily expenses or something not productive, see credit cards when used when there is no excess. It seems that lot of debt on global level even with nations is in second category... This might have worked with growing population and productivity from first kind, but without that population growth it might become bad...
- johnnymorgan 3y ago
  People are really missing this point within this whole issue. Falling demographics is also more than a single total number, the age ranges matter as well.
meheleventyone 3y ago
I think you miss the point there as it relates to the article.
simonbarker87 3y ago
No intentionally implied negativity towards debt at all, it’s a great tool. Just a statement.
johnnymorgan 3y ago
if it's used for productivity increases only. We are well past that point.

Beijinger 3y ago

"Your comment seems to imply something negative about debt, when in fact it's exactly the answer you're looking for. Debt allows people to build things now at the expense of future earnings; it pulls forward technological advances." Yes, but wealth and energy are linked. And debt can only be paid off with more debt. This is no problem, as long as the future is getting better and richer. In a finite world, this must come to an end at one point. "Surely there are better ways to organize society, but easy debt is not inherently terrible" Nobody has been able to come up with a better way. And there is some inherent danger in this. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-state-economy-except-at-a-very-basic-level/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-sta...

ForHackernews 3y ago
Theoretically if AI, fusion power, asteroid mining etc. come to pass, many resources we think of as finite might become functionally unlimited. A post-scarcity society could optimise for human happiness, rather than optimising for workers to keep the machines turning.
- abeppu 3y ago
  This only works if we all change our attitudes and values. But if we changed our values, we could optimize for human happiness today.
  - abeppu 3y ago
    Also, reframing only slightly, to a preindustrial person who spent all their time producing calories or spinning/weaving fiber for clothes, we're a post-scarcity society. We have so many calories it's making us sick and so much clothing we have to export discarded unused clothes. That hasn't meant we stopped chasing ever greater wealth just bc we can more than supply our needs. We just find more and more extravagant things to want. Once we have asteroid mining, a generation of wealthy people will want their own space stations, or fusion-driven space craft or something.
- Beijinger 3y ago
  Nope https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ "But let’s not overlook the key point: continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes. " And Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy...
  - Retric 3y ago
    Track the total energy used by humanity and it’s almost all sunlight used to grow plants the same way it’s been used for thousands of years. It looks nothing like the 2.3% exponential curve pulled out of a hat by that article. There’s little reason to suspect future advanced societies will even vaguely approach a 0.1% increase in total energy demand per year when human population stalls out. Nobody wants to heat their house to 10,000f or cool to cryogenic temperatures. Energy demand is therefore simply a question of technological progress and rates of growth in energy use is surprisingly slow for the top economies.
  - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
    Nope Reminds of the NYT article on the impossibility of flight.
    - fastneutron 3y ago
      Care to elaborate? Are you envisioning some decoupling of energy and economic growth?
  - zeroonetwothree 3y ago
    The chart at the beginning already shows we don’t fit the trend anymore. So the whole premise is nonsense
  - ForHackernews 3y ago
    Shades of https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/ > The merciless growth illustrated above means that in 1400 years from now, any source of energy we harness would have to outshine the sun. Cool, we can worry about this in 1000 years? This article is silly because the whole point of the OP is that population growth will not continue, so it's reasonable to assume that energy consumption will also plateau.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> debt can only be paid off with more debt This is totally untrue. Debt can be paid with new debt or growth.
- pavlov 3y ago
  Debt can also be simply written off. There is a long practice of mass debt relief called a jubilee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee In the Bible, references are made to a Hebrew jubilee every 49 years when “slaves and prisoners would be freed, debts would be forgiven, and the mercies of God would be particularly manifest.” The permanence of debt is an illusion created by our current political and economical system.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > long practice of mass debt relief called a jubilee The concept has long heritage. In reality, very few actual debt forgivenesses are documented. Note, too, that in a Malthusian economy, debt has a tendency to be wealth transferring: the capital capacity of the system is limited. In a growing economy, that need not be the case. > permanence of debt is an illusion created by our current political and economical system We continuously poof debt. It’s called bankruptcy.
    - pavlov 3y ago
      Not just bankruptcy, as there are other, less drastic kinds of write-offs that commonly occur.
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        You’re right, I should have said restructuring. Jubilees are a crude predecessor to lawful restructuring.
  - api 3y ago
    We write off debt via two methods: bankruptcy and inflation. The latter effectively writes down the principal of all outstanding debt. If we hit hard limits to growth it might actually look like a boom for a while, a very inflationary one where number go up a lot. In reality a lot of debt is being vaporized and prices are going up.

Ekaros 3y ago

There is at least two ways to use debt. One is to build a machine, a road or whatever that increase productivity. So invest a million and you manufacture 10% more a year with same labour or even material input. This is great. And then there is getting debt to pay your daily expenses or something not productive, see credit cards when used when there is no excess. It seems that lot of debt on global level even with nations is in second category... This might have worked with growing population and productivity from first kind, but without that population growth it might become bad...

johnnymorgan 3y ago
People are really missing this point within this whole issue. Falling demographics is also more than a single total number, the age ranges matter as well.

meheleventyone 3y ago

I think you miss the point there as it relates to the article.

simonbarker87 3y ago

No intentionally implied negativity towards debt at all, it’s a great tool. Just a statement.

johnnymorgan 3y ago

if it's used for productivity increases only. We are well past that point.