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That’s a bizarre idea. China wants Taiwan because they consider it a renegade province. I doubt they care about one fab.

WiSaGaN 3y ago
It's dangerous strategically for the US to believe that China's motivation is about TSMC. "Taiwan" might not even be just a "CCP" goal. In fact, the "CCP" wouldn't likely survive without making unification a priority.
- 3seashells 3y ago
  Hate for the outsiders, the traditional authoritarian pressure valve.
blackoil 3y ago
Yeah. China has its stance consistently since 1940s, it is not that they woke up about Taiwan in 2010. It is more of a scorched earth plan. There isn't much of interest to US beyond TSMC. As long as it doesn't fall in hand of China, rest it will be OK to loose.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  It would only have been since 1949, and they gave up their best chance to retake Taiwan (while the Americans weren’t interested) to meddle in Korea instead. The Americans don’t really care that much about TSMC. Its fabs are highly dependent on parts, material, etc from more secured countries, which is by design, or they would have never allowed semiconductor industries to be setup in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. They have much of the process locked up and a chip only gets made via free trade from multiple countries (with a lot of fate keeping by key allies, like the Dutch).
  - aragonite 3y ago
    > ... they gave up their best chance to retake Taiwan (while the Americans weren’t interested) to meddle in Korea instead. My understanding of the timeline/causation in 1950 is the other way around. Initially China was only going to offer largely moral support to North Korea. On June 27 the U.S. Seventh Fleet was sent to the Taiwan Strait to prevent PRC from taking Taiwan. This was a factor in China's decision to enter the Korean War in October. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait-crises https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait... > U.S. policy toward East Asia in the early Cold War contributed to the tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In late 1949 and early 1950, American officials were prepared to let PRC forces cross the Strait and defeat Chiang, but after the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950, the United States sent its Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent the Korean conflict from spreading south. The appearance of the Seventh Fleet angered the Chinese Communists, who transferred their troops poised for an invasion of Taiwan to the Korean front. This served to delay military conflict in the Strait until the United States withdrew its fleet after the Korean War. http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1069/explaining-chinas-intervention-in-the-korean-war-in-1950 http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1069/explaining-chi... > In fact, at the initial stage, China took a passive response to the situation in North Korea. Besides moral support for Kim, the only material support provided by Beijing at the time was to send approximately 14,000 Korean Chinese who were then serving in the PLA back to Korea.8 However, three subsequent events dramatically changed Beijing’s attitudes. > The first is that on June 27, the U.S. Seventh Fleet was sent to the Taiwan Strait to ‘neutralise’ the situation. ...
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      Kim asked permission from Mao (who then asked Stalin m) to invade, with the support from China and Russia that would entail. America became very interested in east Asia after the initial invasion, not just when MacArther went too far into North Korea. It was basically over for their plans to retake Taiwan once Kim crossed troops into South Korea, Mao had to have known that. The USA completely expected Taiwan to fall to the communists before the Korean War, and they were pretty untrusting of Chiang Kai Shek at the time, they didn’t really care. But after the Korean War started, that sentiment transformed overnight into “Taiwan must not fall to the communists at any cost.”
- prewett 3y ago
  The real value of Taiwan is that it keeps China from having easy access to the Pacific. That's why the US has suggested it will defend Taiwan for long before TSMC became valuable.
  - AstralStorm 3y ago
    The choke points come from US naval bases located slightly further than Taiwan, though it does help.
- 3seashells 3y ago
  Taiwan shows that a democratic China would work and flourish.
dralley 3y ago
I agree that it goes much much deeper than TSMC, but it's a bit dismissive to call TSMC "one fab". It's the leading edge fab and deeply ingrained in a very large number and wide variety of supply chains in a way that Intel and Samsung are not at the moment.
duxup 3y ago
Yeah I always assumed Taiwan was an ideological / historical kinda thing. It could be all but a barren rock, same feelings and motivations would apply.
rjzzleep 3y ago
It goes beyond that, the more "renegade" Taiwan is in its rhetoric and the more the US increases the MIC investments in Taiwan the more militant China is about "repatriating" Taiwan and the faster they want it achieved. Nobody really cares that much about renegade provinces until they seem like a threat. The US famously called Taiwan the unsinkable aircraft carrier in the pacific[1]. It doesn't really matter that Taiwanese people themselves don't want to fight China. If the Europeans and the US were serious about Taiwan's independence they would have built up Taiwan's defense industry and supported it's independence in the UN, when they were at the height of their power, but they specifically did not, they actually voted against any attempt of Taiwan to be admitted to the UN(to be fair the Republic of China in its constitution still considers itself the sole China). At the time Taiwan was an economic powerhouse and they had some of the biggest shipyards in the world. Right now the US cannot at all compare with China in terms of military industrial output, here's what the US Navy secretary general had to say about the topic[2]. Basically AUKUS is subsidizing US shipbuilding. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsinkable_aircraft_carrier https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsinkable_aircraft_carrier [2] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-pla-advantages-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-...
3seashells 3y ago
Everyone can dig out ancient maps and declare something renegade. Defacto Taiwan is a independent nation, with a very different (not purged aka original) Chinese culture. Russia claims Ukraine, Poland and GDr to be renegade provinces. Should we just accept that.
- xtian 3y ago
  The governing authority in Taiwan also considers it part of historical China. The goal was to eventually retake the mainland with foreign assistance, and the independent nation idea only emerged after that became obviously impossible.
- SanjayMehta 3y ago
  Old maps are the reason for the continuing border disputes between India and China. Every few years they pull out their maps and we pull out our maps.
- foverzar 3y ago
  > Russia claims Ukraine, Poland and GDr to be renegade provinces False. There might be some discussion around Ukraine and its historic role as an integral part of Russia's culture and history - and thus, where would an actual border between two peoples (including a cultural one) will be carved when shit gets fucked. But mixing up Poland or even GDR into this is nonsense narrative that does not exist. Also, the historic reason behind PRC issues with Republic of China (Taiwan) is the fact that both state being the "One True China" as the core of their national myth. The practical issues are of course deterring a potential military threat. Everything else is just pointless rhetorics.

WiSaGaN 3y ago

It's dangerous strategically for the US to believe that China's motivation is about TSMC. "Taiwan" might not even be just a "CCP" goal. In fact, the "CCP" wouldn't likely survive without making unification a priority.

3seashells 3y ago
Hate for the outsiders, the traditional authoritarian pressure valve.

blackoil 3y ago

Yeah. China has its stance consistently since 1940s, it is not that they woke up about Taiwan in 2010. It is more of a scorched earth plan. There isn't much of interest to US beyond TSMC. As long as it doesn't fall in hand of China, rest it will be OK to loose.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
It would only have been since 1949, and they gave up their best chance to retake Taiwan (while the Americans weren’t interested) to meddle in Korea instead. The Americans don’t really care that much about TSMC. Its fabs are highly dependent on parts, material, etc from more secured countries, which is by design, or they would have never allowed semiconductor industries to be setup in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. They have much of the process locked up and a chip only gets made via free trade from multiple countries (with a lot of fate keeping by key allies, like the Dutch).
- aragonite 3y ago
  > ... they gave up their best chance to retake Taiwan (while the Americans weren’t interested) to meddle in Korea instead. My understanding of the timeline/causation in 1950 is the other way around. Initially China was only going to offer largely moral support to North Korea. On June 27 the U.S. Seventh Fleet was sent to the Taiwan Strait to prevent PRC from taking Taiwan. This was a factor in China's decision to enter the Korean War in October. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait-crises https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait... > U.S. policy toward East Asia in the early Cold War contributed to the tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In late 1949 and early 1950, American officials were prepared to let PRC forces cross the Strait and defeat Chiang, but after the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950, the United States sent its Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent the Korean conflict from spreading south. The appearance of the Seventh Fleet angered the Chinese Communists, who transferred their troops poised for an invasion of Taiwan to the Korean front. This served to delay military conflict in the Strait until the United States withdrew its fleet after the Korean War. http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1069/explaining-chinas-intervention-in-the-korean-war-in-1950 http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1069/explaining-chi... > In fact, at the initial stage, China took a passive response to the situation in North Korea. Besides moral support for Kim, the only material support provided by Beijing at the time was to send approximately 14,000 Korean Chinese who were then serving in the PLA back to Korea.8 However, three subsequent events dramatically changed Beijing’s attitudes. > The first is that on June 27, the U.S. Seventh Fleet was sent to the Taiwan Strait to ‘neutralise’ the situation. ...
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Kim asked permission from Mao (who then asked Stalin m) to invade, with the support from China and Russia that would entail. America became very interested in east Asia after the initial invasion, not just when MacArther went too far into North Korea. It was basically over for their plans to retake Taiwan once Kim crossed troops into South Korea, Mao had to have known that. The USA completely expected Taiwan to fall to the communists before the Korean War, and they were pretty untrusting of Chiang Kai Shek at the time, they didn’t really care. But after the Korean War started, that sentiment transformed overnight into “Taiwan must not fall to the communists at any cost.”
prewett 3y ago
The real value of Taiwan is that it keeps China from having easy access to the Pacific. That's why the US has suggested it will defend Taiwan for long before TSMC became valuable.
- AstralStorm 3y ago
  The choke points come from US naval bases located slightly further than Taiwan, though it does help.
3seashells 3y ago
Taiwan shows that a democratic China would work and flourish.

dralley 3y ago

I agree that it goes much much deeper than TSMC, but it's a bit dismissive to call TSMC "one fab". It's the leading edge fab and deeply ingrained in a very large number and wide variety of supply chains in a way that Intel and Samsung are not at the moment.

duxup 3y ago

Yeah I always assumed Taiwan was an ideological / historical kinda thing. It could be all but a barren rock, same feelings and motivations would apply.

rjzzleep 3y ago

It goes beyond that, the more "renegade" Taiwan is in its rhetoric and the more the US increases the MIC investments in Taiwan the more militant China is about "repatriating" Taiwan and the faster they want it achieved. Nobody really cares that much about renegade provinces until they seem like a threat. The US famously called Taiwan the unsinkable aircraft carrier in the pacific[1]. It doesn't really matter that Taiwanese people themselves don't want to fight China. If the Europeans and the US were serious about Taiwan's independence they would have built up Taiwan's defense industry and supported it's independence in the UN, when they were at the height of their power, but they specifically did not, they actually voted against any attempt of Taiwan to be admitted to the UN(to be fair the Republic of China in its constitution still considers itself the sole China). At the time Taiwan was an economic powerhouse and they had some of the biggest shipyards in the world. Right now the US cannot at all compare with China in terms of military industrial output, here's what the US Navy secretary general had to say about the topic[2]. Basically AUKUS is subsidizing US shipbuilding. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsinkable_aircraft_carrier https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsinkable_aircraft_carrier [2] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-pla-advantages-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-...

3seashells 3y ago

Everyone can dig out ancient maps and declare something renegade. Defacto Taiwan is a independent nation, with a very different (not purged aka original) Chinese culture. Russia claims Ukraine, Poland and GDr to be renegade provinces. Should we just accept that.

xtian 3y ago
The governing authority in Taiwan also considers it part of historical China. The goal was to eventually retake the mainland with foreign assistance, and the independent nation idea only emerged after that became obviously impossible.
SanjayMehta 3y ago
Old maps are the reason for the continuing border disputes between India and China. Every few years they pull out their maps and we pull out our maps.
foverzar 3y ago
> Russia claims Ukraine, Poland and GDr to be renegade provinces False. There might be some discussion around Ukraine and its historic role as an integral part of Russia's culture and history - and thus, where would an actual border between two peoples (including a cultural one) will be carved when shit gets fucked. But mixing up Poland or even GDR into this is nonsense narrative that does not exist. Also, the historic reason behind PRC issues with Republic of China (Taiwan) is the fact that both state being the "One True China" as the core of their national myth. The practical issues are of course deterring a potential military threat. Everything else is just pointless rhetorics.