LTCM performed a similar "arbitrage" with no edge. It's risky, and professionals underestimate the loss from a deal failing (these bets require a lot of capital

LTCM performed a similar "arbitrage" with no edge. It's risky, and professionals underestimate the loss from a deal failing (these bets require a lot of capital) and often don't have serious models to explain why the delta between the market and acquisition price is too large. It's possible to understand a powerful individual and an institution well enough to bet for or against them with an edge, but easy to be influenced by a subjective narrative about them without realizing it. All that said, when someone has a good streak going, it's sour grapes to complain it's only luck. :)