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Mammals’ time on Earth is half over, scientists predict
- andsoitis 3y agohttps://archive.ph/2023.09.25-153556/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/science/future-earth-warming-mammal-extinction.html https://archive.ph/2023.09.25-153556/https://www.nytimes.com...
- alex_young 3y agohttps://web.archive.org/web/20230926041947/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/science/future-earth-warming-mammal-extinction.html https://web.archive.org/web/20230926041947/https://www.nytim...
- xlance 3y agoIn 250M years we have probably killed ourselves 249,9M years ago anyway. But in the unlikely scenario that we have not, we probably can fix both tectonic plate movement and/or suns energy output with 250M years of technological progress.
- alex_young 3y agoGiven that our ancestors 65 MYA were very small rodent like creatures, I suspect any of “us” will be completely unrecognizable to the modern us.
- jmprspret 3y agoWe don't evolve anymore. Natural selection doesn't happen anymore. Only way for that to happen would be interplanetary travel (particles and radiation in space affecting DNA for one, space colonies slowly changing over many generations to suit other planet's conditions more likely).
- bowsamic 3y agoThe only thing that makes human selection unnatural is that we like to define ourselves as above nature
- m463 3y ago> We don't evolve anymore. Natural selection doesn't happen anymore. I think we do. IVF, cloning and more. People choose to live in safe or risky places. etc...
- alex_young 3y agoDo you really believe that? Sexual selection is a thing of the past?
- Ancalagon 3y agoNatural selection sure, artificial though, definitely. Women (on average) have preferences for taller guys (on average), where do you think the average height of people are headed? Artificial selection. Most reproduction is monogamous in modern society. Artificial selection. I don't mean to offend anyone with those examples by the way, apologies if I did. I also realize the irony that those examples might be opposing forces for the same phenotype I'm referencing.
- alex_young 3y agoArtificial selection refers to our selective breeding of non-humans. The examples you mentioned are natural selection.
- olalonde 3y agoI believe we are at a juncture in human history where technological progress is so fast that it will eclipse any natural evolution that would normally occur. On a 250-million-year scale, we're nearing breakthroughs in halting aging, manipulating DNA on demand, printing body parts, and potentially even achieving mind uploading. Natural selection will soon have run its course for our species. We will keep evolving but it won't be driven by random DNA replication errors: it will be driven by technology and culture. I agree however that "they" will be completely unrecognizable to the modern us.
- alex_young 3y agoWritten language popped up around 5 thousand years ago. https://www.getty.edu/news/where-did-writing-come-from/ https://www.getty.edu/news/where-did-writing-come-from/ Human language was invented ~100 KYA. 50 KYA we were painting pictures of mammoths on cave walls. Before that we were a population of ~200 for many tens of thousands of years in Africa. Our earliest upright ancestors lived around 3 MYA. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_(Australopithecus) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_(Australopithecus) 65 MYA the dinosaurs dominated our world and our ancestors were small rodent like animals. It’s very hard to imagine that anything we do will stop evolution for hundreds of millions of years in the future.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- olalonde 3y agoIf 65M years of random DNA mutations caused small rodents to evolve to homo sapiens, what do you think 65M years of human technology can do? Hint: technology progresses a lot faster than natural evolution. Think about how much of an impact evolution had on us in the last 1000 years vs how much technology did. We will probably become capable of editing DNA within a few generations. Death by aging will become a relic of the past. And I'm talking about what will happen within a few generations, not 250M years. In 250M years, DNA-based life will probably be mentioned in museums.
- Brian_K_White 3y ago
- Grimblewald 3y agoDifference is rodent ancestor had to adapt to its environment. We haven't had to adapt to shit in millennia, that's the whole point of tech - to remove the discomfort of selective pressure.
- andyp-kw 3y agoI'd like to think that we'll be interplanetary by then. Heck, it would be nice to terraform Mars before then.
- xlance 3y ago250 million years is an unimaginably long period, during which we would either be deceased or far beyond the boundaries of our solar system. Using the technological advancements of the past 100 years as an indicator, we will have terraformed Mars long before then.
- iancmceachern 3y agoSo long and thanks for all the fish!
- aziaziazi 3y ago> Astronomers expect that our sun will grow steadily brighter and, in about 7.6 billion years, may engulf the Earth Any proposition on how “fixing” sun energy output will gratify my intellectual curiosity.
- willio58 3y agoHave you heard about Dyson spheres? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere Yes it sounds crazy but think 250 million years down the line
- xlance 3y agoExactly. Or we will alter the Earth's orbit so that less of the energy reaches us.
- kergonath 3y agoThere are serious physical issues about Dyson spheres. Things like constellations of satellites orbiting a star are much more practical solutions than a solid sphere.
- aziaziazi 3y agoIn my understanding Dyson spheres harvests energy but won’t stop stars expansion. Though peer commenter xlance propose to use that energy to changes earth orbit, which address the goal. But as far as I know building a Dyson sphere would also require a quantity of material resources that we don’t have on earth. Some options to get those: A. energy to mass, but we don’t know if that’s even theoretically achievable. Also it probably would require a Dyson sphere itself to have enough energy. B. convert other abundant elements (O, Si, Fe…) into required elements using known atomic reactions. But harvesting that much elements from earth could transform it in a state that does not worth the pain to try “saving” it.
- willio58 3y ago> A new model suggests that in 250 million years, all land will collide into a supercontinent that boosts warming and pushes mammals to extinction. I mean, if in 250 million years we haven’t become multi-planetary, sure. We landed on the moon for the first time just 54 years ago. NASA is planning to send people back in 2 years. If in 3023 we aren’t colonizing Mars or something similar, I think something horribly wrong happened. On a much shorter timescale than 250 million years.
- jmprspret 3y ago> I mean, if in 250 million years we haven’t become multi-planetary, sure I think that's optimistic. Who know what could happen in that time. Many many doomsday scenarios come to mind, all of which I personally feel are more likely than us surviving that long. Climate crisis + global warming being the most realistic, given we don't fix our shit or find a way around it (underground?). Massive collisions from objects in space, solar flares, nuclear winter, Christian rapture + doomsday?. Maybe not that last one.
- echelon 3y ago> If in 3023 we aren’t colonizing Mars or something similar, I think something horribly wrong happened. We start leaving the human bodies we evolved with behind and become beings of pure intelligence. Or the greater intelligence decides it doesn't need us and goes off on its own adventure.
- brigade 3y agoIt doesn’t account for humans staying alive through technology, yes. But the earth is still likely to be more habitable than anywhere else in the solar system for the next billion years even as the sun increases its output 10%, the oceans evaporate, and natural plant life dies out.
- elromulous 3y agoTldr: this is completely inconsequential. To combine a few other comments: in 250m years, we are unrecognizable by today's humans, and easily have the technologies to inhabit other planets. That's assuming we haven't already destroyed ourselves many times over by them.
- sacnoradhq 3y agoYep. The extreme far future (i.e., tectonics, magnetic field weakening, the moon receding, liquid water loss, GRBs, GCRs, and the expanding sun) is inconsequential compared to the existential threat of the anthropogenic global warming emergency now.
- rightbyte 3y agoIsn't "half way" just the best guess of you know nothing?
- d--b 3y agoSometimes, scientists get too much time on their hands so much so that it doesn't do a service to science. I mean you can have fun in your free time predicting the end of mammals' life. But what's the point of writing a publication about this? At best, this is going to be completely useless. At worst it's going to be read as: "mammals will go extinct anyways in 250M years, what's the point in reducing carbon footprint now?" Or worse: "look at the crap the government is funding, we should end government funding for scientists". Plus it's a complete disservice to the word "expert". These guys are true experts in their field and they know a lot of stuff that other people dont, but predictions like this are so random, it's almost certain that these guys are quite wrong. This gives ammunitions to the anti vax and flat earthers saying "experts" don't know shit anyways. Sorry for the bad feelings, but that kind of research really annoys me. I only see negative outcomes from this kind of studies.
- keiferski 3y agoI had the same reaction. At what point does this cease being science? Because making predictions about the world in 250 million years is a tiny step above fortune telling.
- kergonath 3y agoAt some point speculating about what happened 10000 years ago was “a tiny step above fortune telling”. There are several factors to consider: - some people are interested in different things than you are; - you only need so much time to write such an article, it’s not like someone set millions of dollars on fire; - this is fundamentally just extrapolation of the movement of tectonic plates, which is a perfectly legitimate question to ask. - things that are considered futile now might not be in the future, and we have no way of knowing that right now. In the end, complaining about what gets published in the literature is about as productive as complaining about what ends up on HN’s front page: things are here because someone wrote it and others found it interesting.
- keiferski 3y agoWhat a strange comment. I am complaining about the misapplication of science toward predicting the future, not that the article is on the home page. “Some people are interested in different things than you are” has literally nothing to do with it. As a side note, I’ve noticed that comments like this, which have basically nothing to do with the parent and are instead just functioning as weird hobby horse put downs, are becoming more and more common. Very strange phenomenon.
- caesil 3y agoSpeak for yourself, buddy.
- nologic01 3y agoThe core question is which biological kindom will flurish between the next 250 years (when humans go extinct dragging most mammals with them) and the next 250 million years that this article is so rightly concerned about. My money is on Fungi. In about 1 mln years intelligent Fungi will be roaming the earth, building large fungi language models and pondering the meaning of it all.
- sacnoradhq 3y agoWhile fun guys always roam, I don't see pizza toppings roaming except as ant parasites.
- nologic01 3y agoonce domineering fungal parasites control the host's nervous system its a mute point which dumb DNA builds the exoskeleton, no? we see a lot of examples of this phenomenon in current society
- sacnoradhq 3y agoSurface liquid water won't exist in a billion years either. That far in the future, it doesn't really matter because there's little to be done about it except evolve or be somewhere else.
- RHSman2 3y agoIf anyone thinks we have done a good job in our time here they are deluded. We’ll be wiped out and it’s all our own stupid, selfish fault. …now let me get back to planning Christmas presents for my kids and what is our next holiday.