5 ms·

They're often also slow to market. They weren't the first search engine, they weren't the first email platform, they weren't the first video site, but now they'

They're often also slow to market. They weren't the first search engine, they weren't the first email platform, they weren't the first video site, but now they're the biggest in those categories. I think Bard's growth will be very interesting to watch given that track record. Or it'll get dropped within a year.

ttul 3y ago
It’s not getting dropped. If OpenAI’s models get good enough, search traffic will crater and Google will fall on extremely hard times for lack of ad revenue. At the same time, if they fail to integrate state of the art generative features into Workspace, people will go to Microsoft, where GPT-4 is presently handing Google their ass. Yes, Google Duet for Workspace totally sucks; I suspect their trial conversion rate approaches 0%. This is a make it or break it problem for Google and they will get it right or they won’t get it at all.
- behnamoh 3y ago
  There was a graph that showed Google's search didn't get affected much after ChatGPT was announced.
  - Mistletoe 3y ago
    I tried to replace it but ChatGPT is slower, wordier, not up to date, and sometimes hallucinates, so I just went back to quick google searches.
- azinman2 3y ago
  Have you switched to chatgpt for everything you googled? I haven’t. And most of the time I’m wanting destinations versus a specific answer.
  - carom 3y ago
    I have for programming searches. ChatGPT can give me things that would take 5+ minutes of searching to hone in on. Then again, I run an ad blocker so no loss for them.
    - victorbjorklund 3y ago
      Honestly google probably doesnt make any money at all on searches like "how do call rust from python?". They make money on searches with buy intent where people search for "buy gps for car"
  - davedx 3y ago
    For any domain specific questions or discussions I use ChatGPT because it’s so much better than Google. People underestimate how many fields it’s already valuable in beyond programming. I use Google for basic bitch things like finding a company website or what time is it in Tokyo.
  - vidarh 3y ago
    I have a browser extension (ChatGPTBox) that puts ChatGPT one click away on every DDG search I do, and it's certainly now often where I go next if DDG doesn't get me the result vs appending "!g" (to send the search to Google). In that respect it's not replacing all my searches, but it seems to be replacing the "hard ones" where it's hard to compete with Google at a disproportional rate. If that is actually the case, it'd spell bad news for Google whether or not it kills search - if it becomes cheaper/easier to compete by offering a mix of less complete search with an OpenAI integration, it opens the door for far more attempts at competing with them.
- piyushpr134 3y ago
  not at all. I feel (this data is from running SEM for large website(s)) that Google earns most of their revenue from tactical searches. For instance, most people search for website names instead of typing the url. This creates a massive tactical search traffic base for google and brings largest revenue for them. There is a huge competition in this category as most competitors bid on others. Similarly, product searches are second largest category in which they make tonnes of money. This is also done by people as they don't really like to search on amazon or other ecommerce sites. This is also a huge money spinner for them. Both of these are not going anywhere as both of these are tactical spends. Now let us come to long tail. These are again big money and are at risk for Google. However, you have to understand that Goog ads are clicked by most tier 2 users. We, techies, do not really click at ads. We go for organic ranking (mostly). We are the base of chatGPT right now. Tier 2 and lower users don't really use chatgpt. Even if they do, they would not do it for product discovery or site discovery as it has too much friction: go to chat.openai.com, type in your question, it responds in slow, jerky manner vs just type in browser bar what you are thinking. To top it, Chatgpt also has stale data. Moreover, it is heavily lobotomized to not give any controversial or edgy answers. This curtails usefulness of chatgpt.
- h1fra 3y ago
  I think new generation using tiktok for search had more impact than AI. The current issue with chatGPT is the freshness of the data, accuracy second to that. If they manage to constantly feed their model with new data then it might be a true contender imo
behnamoh 3y ago
> They're... It's worth mentioning that the Google you're talking about was way way different than it is today. Google Search was a startup. Google Search + Email was a small company. Google Search + Email + YouTube was a midsize firm. Now they're a humungous megacorp that's slow to make necessary changes when there's a paradigm shift like LLMs.
- peddling-brink 3y ago
  Doesn’t seem that slow. They fired a bunch of people and are integrating LLMs all over the place. OAI had a big head start for sure.
- eru 3y ago
  Also keep in mind that YouTube was an acquisition.
- piyushpr134 3y ago
  android and chrome both are also late but they won. In Cloud also they are late but they look like to be making big progress.
  - oezi 3y ago
    Android didn't win, they just prevented Apple to have a 100% monopoly on smartphones. Edit: Apple is certainly taking the lion's share of profits in the phone space. Since Google isn't investing as heavily anymore in Android, the development has slowed considerably.
    - _puk 3y ago
      Define winning - I'd take "Android maintained its position as the leading mobile operating system worldwide in the second quarter of 2023 with a market share of 70.8 percent. Android's closest rival, Apple's iOS, had a market share of 28.4 percent during the same period." [0] 0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272698/global-market-share-held-by-mobile-operating-systems-since-2009/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272698/global-market-sha...
mellosouls 3y ago
They were the best search engine from the get-go and had a massive impact. Gmail/maps also to a lesser extent. In AI they were giants in what looks post-ChatGPT like a mediocre field. Their search now is looking very jaded. The trajectory here isn't remotely like their past performances; it's not a safe bet to assume they'll win through with Bard or anything else. The agility of OpenAI and the revolutionary impact of gpt3+ has made the former incumbents like Google look like posturing, self-satisfied, giant lumbering has-beens. They aren't getting back on top without massive internal changes.
antupis 3y ago
Google 2023 is completely different company than it was in 2005. It is like comparing HP in 1999 and 1981.
passion__desire 3y ago
You forgot about Android. It was an acquisition.
FooBarWidget 3y ago
> they weren't the first video site, but now they're the biggest in those categories Acquisition doesn't count
- two_in_one 3y ago
  They still can grab OpenAI, MS Edge history will repeat.
thfuran 3y ago
That's a little unfair since those things predate Google's existence. Nobody's that fast to market.

ttul 3y ago

It’s not getting dropped. If OpenAI’s models get good enough, search traffic will crater and Google will fall on extremely hard times for lack of ad revenue. At the same time, if they fail to integrate state of the art generative features into Workspace, people will go to Microsoft, where GPT-4 is presently handing Google their ass. Yes, Google Duet for Workspace totally sucks; I suspect their trial conversion rate approaches 0%. This is a make it or break it problem for Google and they will get it right or they won’t get it at all.

behnamoh 3y ago
There was a graph that showed Google's search didn't get affected much after ChatGPT was announced.
- Mistletoe 3y ago
  I tried to replace it but ChatGPT is slower, wordier, not up to date, and sometimes hallucinates, so I just went back to quick google searches.
azinman2 3y ago
Have you switched to chatgpt for everything you googled? I haven’t. And most of the time I’m wanting destinations versus a specific answer.
- carom 3y ago
  I have for programming searches. ChatGPT can give me things that would take 5+ minutes of searching to hone in on. Then again, I run an ad blocker so no loss for them.
  - victorbjorklund 3y ago
    Honestly google probably doesnt make any money at all on searches like "how do call rust from python?". They make money on searches with buy intent where people search for "buy gps for car"
- davedx 3y ago
  For any domain specific questions or discussions I use ChatGPT because it’s so much better than Google. People underestimate how many fields it’s already valuable in beyond programming. I use Google for basic bitch things like finding a company website or what time is it in Tokyo.
- vidarh 3y ago
  I have a browser extension (ChatGPTBox) that puts ChatGPT one click away on every DDG search I do, and it's certainly now often where I go next if DDG doesn't get me the result vs appending "!g" (to send the search to Google). In that respect it's not replacing all my searches, but it seems to be replacing the "hard ones" where it's hard to compete with Google at a disproportional rate. If that is actually the case, it'd spell bad news for Google whether or not it kills search - if it becomes cheaper/easier to compete by offering a mix of less complete search with an OpenAI integration, it opens the door for far more attempts at competing with them.
piyushpr134 3y ago
not at all. I feel (this data is from running SEM for large website(s)) that Google earns most of their revenue from tactical searches. For instance, most people search for website names instead of typing the url. This creates a massive tactical search traffic base for google and brings largest revenue for them. There is a huge competition in this category as most competitors bid on others. Similarly, product searches are second largest category in which they make tonnes of money. This is also done by people as they don't really like to search on amazon or other ecommerce sites. This is also a huge money spinner for them. Both of these are not going anywhere as both of these are tactical spends. Now let us come to long tail. These are again big money and are at risk for Google. However, you have to understand that Goog ads are clicked by most tier 2 users. We, techies, do not really click at ads. We go for organic ranking (mostly). We are the base of chatGPT right now. Tier 2 and lower users don't really use chatgpt. Even if they do, they would not do it for product discovery or site discovery as it has too much friction: go to chat.openai.com, type in your question, it responds in slow, jerky manner vs just type in browser bar what you are thinking. To top it, Chatgpt also has stale data. Moreover, it is heavily lobotomized to not give any controversial or edgy answers. This curtails usefulness of chatgpt.
h1fra 3y ago
I think new generation using tiktok for search had more impact than AI. The current issue with chatGPT is the freshness of the data, accuracy second to that. If they manage to constantly feed their model with new data then it might be a true contender imo

behnamoh 3y ago

> They're... It's worth mentioning that the Google you're talking about was way way different than it is today. Google Search was a startup. Google Search + Email was a small company. Google Search + Email + YouTube was a midsize firm. Now they're a humungous megacorp that's slow to make necessary changes when there's a paradigm shift like LLMs.

peddling-brink 3y ago
Doesn’t seem that slow. They fired a bunch of people and are integrating LLMs all over the place. OAI had a big head start for sure.
eru 3y ago
Also keep in mind that YouTube was an acquisition.
piyushpr134 3y ago
android and chrome both are also late but they won. In Cloud also they are late but they look like to be making big progress.
- oezi 3y ago
  Android didn't win, they just prevented Apple to have a 100% monopoly on smartphones. Edit: Apple is certainly taking the lion's share of profits in the phone space. Since Google isn't investing as heavily anymore in Android, the development has slowed considerably.
  - _puk 3y ago
    Define winning - I'd take "Android maintained its position as the leading mobile operating system worldwide in the second quarter of 2023 with a market share of 70.8 percent. Android's closest rival, Apple's iOS, had a market share of 28.4 percent during the same period." [0] 0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272698/global-market-share-held-by-mobile-operating-systems-since-2009/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272698/global-market-sha...

mellosouls 3y ago

They were the best search engine from the get-go and had a massive impact. Gmail/maps also to a lesser extent. In AI they were giants in what looks post-ChatGPT like a mediocre field. Their search now is looking very jaded. The trajectory here isn't remotely like their past performances; it's not a safe bet to assume they'll win through with Bard or anything else. The agility of OpenAI and the revolutionary impact of gpt3+ has made the former incumbents like Google look like posturing, self-satisfied, giant lumbering has-beens. They aren't getting back on top without massive internal changes.

antupis 3y ago

Google 2023 is completely different company than it was in 2005. It is like comparing HP in 1999 and 1981.

passion__desire 3y ago

You forgot about Android. It was an acquisition.

FooBarWidget 3y ago

> they weren't the first video site, but now they're the biggest in those categories Acquisition doesn't count

two_in_one 3y ago
They still can grab OpenAI, MS Edge history will repeat.

thfuran 3y ago

That's a little unfair since those things predate Google's existence. Nobody's that fast to market.