9 ms·

> By the time a pilot ejects they’ve exhausted EVERY other option to control the aircraft, no AI is going to regain control at that point. It seems like they p

> By the time a pilot ejects they’ve exhausted EVERY other option to control the aircraft, no AI is going to regain control at that point. It seems like they probably bail out when they've exhausted every option of being able to land it and survive. There are likely some scenarios where there's limited controls remaining, that wouldn't provide high enough odds of guaranteeing someone's survival, but that could optimize for something when it eventually makes contact with the land. In fact, it seems like there could be quite a bit of capabilities between where someone would want to bail out and where there are zero remaining controls.

MarkMarine 3y ago
I live in the real world, and there are incident reports that go into great detail about every aircraft loss. I’ve read every one since 1999, and I’ve never seen an incident where the pilot ejected over a populated area in an aircraft that was still controlled. What you all are imagining does not happen, and the odds of it happening are vanishingly small.
- ciscoriordan 3y ago
  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-34-fullback-jet-slams-into-apartment-building-in-a-ball-of-fire https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-34-fullback... “The statement went on to add that the crash was caused by an issue with one of the engines during takeoff, but the jet's two crewmembers are said to have ejected safely and survived. The extent of the injuries to the apartment building's tenants as well as civilians in the surrounding area is unknown at present.”
  - justsomehnguy 3y ago
    "To the last I struggled to lift the plane, [but] copilot Yuriy Yegorov hit the catapult [triggering ejection] and we two ejected with our seats."
    - 1attice 3y ago
      What I love about HN is that you can get from 'a plane went missing' to a thread that cites every plane loss since 1999 followed by a counterargument citing a downed MIG. Like, how the heck do you all know so much? The demographics of this site are unreal
      - brabel 3y ago
        You've never been in an internet argument yourself? You don't need to know shit, just google stuff to support your views which you had already formed without evidence and post it to prove whatever you need to support your case.
      - moralestapia 3y ago
        Well, one of those guys was just flexing/lying tbf ...
        MarkMarine 3y ago
        Nah, I read every incident report for military in the US because it was part of my job. Since we were talking about US military aviation I felt that was the avenue. I have read every incident report for Russia, not that I even could.
        MarkMarine 3y ago
        *have not
        tomcam 3y ago
        Always the straight man, I asked, what’s your job? It sounds unreasonably interesting to me.
        benterix 3y ago
        I have a strange feeling that Mark was a Marine.
- cameldrv 3y ago
  Have you looked at the MiG-23 that crashed last month in Michigan?
  - Jtsummers 3y ago
    https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/192855/pdf https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/G... This one? Which reads as though the back-seater (not the pilot) was the one that ejected and took the pilot with him?
    - marcosdumay 3y ago
      What invalidates none of the gain from the OP's idea. And in fact, if it's reliable, it can help saving pilots lives.
  - ZeroCooly 3y ago
    I think it's worth noting that that the MiG-23 that crashed in Michigan was a privately owned aircraft, flown not by an active service member. I highly doubt the military allows their pilots to eject without absolute certainty that the multimillion/billion dollar aircraft is totally lost. Additionally, I highly doubt there are many privately owned military jets equipped with ejection seats that are allowed to fly, especially in residential airspace. Also, as someone who works on FMS's the likelihood that a military program would spend the money required to code an AT/AP to have that capability is just too close to zero.
    - lsh123 3y ago
      Interview with the guy who pulled the ejection cord in the Michigan Mig-23: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftcn3NwAZCI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftcn3NwAZCI tldr; they were out of airspeed and out of altitude barely within ejection envelope (i.e. exhausted all the options)
    - thrill 3y ago
      "I highly doubt the military allows their pilots to eject without absolute certainty that the multimillion/billion dollar aircraft is totally lost." Military pilots most assuredly do not seek permission to eject. Given time they may indeed seek advice about the likelihood of a good landing.
orange_fritter 3y ago
In flight school lore, during a training exercise, a plane righted itself from "uncontrollable flat spin" after ejection. Basically, pilot input can fight against the natural stability of the plane's design. Also: > During a training mission from Malmstrom Air Force Base, on Feb. 2, 1970, his F-106 entered an uncontrollable flat spin forcing him to eject. Unexpectedly, the aircraft recovered on its own and made a gentle belly landing and skidding for a few hundred yards on a field near Big Sandy, Montana, covered by some inches of snow. https://theaviationist.com/2013/10/24/cornfield-bomber/ https://theaviationist.com/2013/10/24/cornfield-bomber/
- histriosum 3y ago
  Worth noting that spin recovery is highly CG (center of gravity) dependent. Ejecting from an aircraft would significantly alter the CG. It's far more likely that the CG change broke the spin than the pilot was doing something unhelpful. Additionally there would be a nose down moment from the seat firing (newtons third law) and that may well have broken the stall.
  - mpreda 3y ago
    Visually the cockpit of a fighter plane is located forward, thus very likely ahead of the plane's CG. Ejecting the pilot would thus move the CG towards the back of the plane, which is a less stable configuration making it more difficult to recover from a stall.
    - histriosum 3y ago
      A developed spin is an equilibrium of forces. Anything that disrupts that equilibrium has a decent chance of disrupting the spin, and that would include moving the CG aft. However, see my other note as well, there would be a nose down moment when the seat fires. There would also be a massive drag profile change. Any of these things have good potential to disrupt a stabilized spin. My main point is that it's almost certainly not the case that the pilot was actively making incorrect inputs before ejecting. The ejection itself is the variable that likely would disrupt a spin in such a situation, not the pilot no longer making inputs.
ReptileMan 3y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Negev_mid-air_collision https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Negev_mid-air_collision >Notably, the F-15, (with a crew of two), managed to land safely at a nearby airbase, despite having its right wing almost completely sheared off in the collision. The lifting body properties of the F-15, together with its overabundant engine thrust, allowed the pilot to achieve this unique feat. Just posting here because it is awesome.
- versteegen 3y ago
  At first I thought you were referring to this case where a crew landed an A300 with a large part of a wing missing and no hydraulic controls, using only differential engine thrust to control pitch, roll, yaw and speed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Baghdad_DHL_attempted_shootdown_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Baghdad_DHL_attempted_sho...

MarkMarine 3y ago

I live in the real world, and there are incident reports that go into great detail about every aircraft loss. I’ve read every one since 1999, and I’ve never seen an incident where the pilot ejected over a populated area in an aircraft that was still controlled. What you all are imagining does not happen, and the odds of it happening are vanishingly small.

ciscoriordan 3y ago
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-34-fullback-jet-slams-into-apartment-building-in-a-ball-of-fire https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-34-fullback... “The statement went on to add that the crash was caused by an issue with one of the engines during takeoff, but the jet's two crewmembers are said to have ejected safely and survived. The extent of the injuries to the apartment building's tenants as well as civilians in the surrounding area is unknown at present.”
- justsomehnguy 3y ago
  "To the last I struggled to lift the plane, [but] copilot Yuriy Yegorov hit the catapult [triggering ejection] and we two ejected with our seats."
  - 1attice 3y ago
    What I love about HN is that you can get from 'a plane went missing' to a thread that cites every plane loss since 1999 followed by a counterargument citing a downed MIG. Like, how the heck do you all know so much? The demographics of this site are unreal
    - brabel 3y ago
      You've never been in an internet argument yourself? You don't need to know shit, just google stuff to support your views which you had already formed without evidence and post it to prove whatever you need to support your case.
    - moralestapia 3y ago
      Well, one of those guys was just flexing/lying tbf ...
      - MarkMarine 3y ago
        Nah, I read every incident report for military in the US because it was part of my job. Since we were talking about US military aviation I felt that was the avenue. I have read every incident report for Russia, not that I even could.
        MarkMarine 3y ago
        *have not
        tomcam 3y ago
        Always the straight man, I asked, what’s your job? It sounds unreasonably interesting to me.
        benterix 3y ago
        I have a strange feeling that Mark was a Marine.
cameldrv 3y ago
Have you looked at the MiG-23 that crashed last month in Michigan?
- Jtsummers 3y ago
  https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/192855/pdf https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/G... This one? Which reads as though the back-seater (not the pilot) was the one that ejected and took the pilot with him?
  - marcosdumay 3y ago
    What invalidates none of the gain from the OP's idea. And in fact, if it's reliable, it can help saving pilots lives.
- ZeroCooly 3y ago
  I think it's worth noting that that the MiG-23 that crashed in Michigan was a privately owned aircraft, flown not by an active service member. I highly doubt the military allows their pilots to eject without absolute certainty that the multimillion/billion dollar aircraft is totally lost. Additionally, I highly doubt there are many privately owned military jets equipped with ejection seats that are allowed to fly, especially in residential airspace. Also, as someone who works on FMS's the likelihood that a military program would spend the money required to code an AT/AP to have that capability is just too close to zero.
  - lsh123 3y ago
    Interview with the guy who pulled the ejection cord in the Michigan Mig-23: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftcn3NwAZCI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftcn3NwAZCI tldr; they were out of airspeed and out of altitude barely within ejection envelope (i.e. exhausted all the options)
  - thrill 3y ago
    "I highly doubt the military allows their pilots to eject without absolute certainty that the multimillion/billion dollar aircraft is totally lost." Military pilots most assuredly do not seek permission to eject. Given time they may indeed seek advice about the likelihood of a good landing.

orange_fritter 3y ago

In flight school lore, during a training exercise, a plane righted itself from "uncontrollable flat spin" after ejection. Basically, pilot input can fight against the natural stability of the plane's design. Also: > During a training mission from Malmstrom Air Force Base, on Feb. 2, 1970, his F-106 entered an uncontrollable flat spin forcing him to eject. Unexpectedly, the aircraft recovered on its own and made a gentle belly landing and skidding for a few hundred yards on a field near Big Sandy, Montana, covered by some inches of snow. https://theaviationist.com/2013/10/24/cornfield-bomber/ https://theaviationist.com/2013/10/24/cornfield-bomber/

histriosum 3y ago
Worth noting that spin recovery is highly CG (center of gravity) dependent. Ejecting from an aircraft would significantly alter the CG. It's far more likely that the CG change broke the spin than the pilot was doing something unhelpful. Additionally there would be a nose down moment from the seat firing (newtons third law) and that may well have broken the stall.
- mpreda 3y ago
  Visually the cockpit of a fighter plane is located forward, thus very likely ahead of the plane's CG. Ejecting the pilot would thus move the CG towards the back of the plane, which is a less stable configuration making it more difficult to recover from a stall.
  - histriosum 3y ago
    A developed spin is an equilibrium of forces. Anything that disrupts that equilibrium has a decent chance of disrupting the spin, and that would include moving the CG aft. However, see my other note as well, there would be a nose down moment when the seat fires. There would also be a massive drag profile change. Any of these things have good potential to disrupt a stabilized spin. My main point is that it's almost certainly not the case that the pilot was actively making incorrect inputs before ejecting. The ejection itself is the variable that likely would disrupt a spin in such a situation, not the pilot no longer making inputs.

ReptileMan 3y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Negev_mid-air_collision https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Negev_mid-air_collision >Notably, the F-15, (with a crew of two), managed to land safely at a nearby airbase, despite having its right wing almost completely sheared off in the collision. The lifting body properties of the F-15, together with its overabundant engine thrust, allowed the pilot to achieve this unique feat. Just posting here because it is awesome.

versteegen 3y ago
At first I thought you were referring to this case where a crew landed an A300 with a large part of a wing missing and no hydraulic controls, using only differential engine thrust to control pitch, roll, yaw and speed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Baghdad_DHL_attempted_shootdown_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Baghdad_DHL_attempted_sho...