5 ms·

Peak crime was around the 1990s. Crime has been dropping ever since and no one really knows why, though some theories are interesting. All this crime wave talk

Peak crime was around the 1990s. Crime has been dropping ever since and no one really knows why, though some theories are interesting. All this crime wave talk is just news / politicians trying to scare us.

b112 3y ago
The population is older (there are fewer young people). Put another way, octogenarians seldom rob at gunpoint.
- Clubber 3y ago
  Yes, other theories are removal of lead in gasoline, the legalization of abortion, and my personal addition is video games gave restless kids something to do. Also, our population tree has the largest male population alive is currently ages ~19-40, which is the demographic most likely to commit crime. https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyramid-infographic/ https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyra...
  - shmoe 3y ago
    Somebody read Freakonomics!
  - b112 3y ago
    Yes, but how many were alive 50 years ago? See my other comment
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- pengaru 3y ago
  Millenials outnumber Boomers: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomers-us-census-data-largest-living-generation/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomer...
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    That was bound to happen, since many of the boomers are dead now. Just that when boomers were young, crime was also booming. Millennials weren't as big of a generation and didn't seem to do the same things.
  - b112 3y ago
    Two thing. Millennials are getting old. about 30 to mid 40s now. That's not the sort of "young" I was talking about. Second, it's not relevant how many young vs old there are, but how many compared to 50 years, 70 years ago. There were a lot more young people back then. Birth rates are very low compared to back then. The world's population will drop by at least 30% in the next few decades, as a result of this.
    - Clubber 3y ago
      I'm sure it was fewer in total number, we only had 211 million people in the US in 1973. As far as relative to the population, I'm not sure. Here's the population tree for 1973. The bulge at the bottom is probably responsible for peak crime in 1991 if you assume most violent crime is from people ~19-40. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/1973/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/1...
      - b112 3y ago
        It doesn't seem like much, but if you just move forward through the years, you can see a bulge moving up the graph. It's quite serious. Medicare, in the US, is seen as "being in a crisis", as the number of taxpayers, relative to the number of "older people who tend to need lots of health care", will shift. Fewer taxpayers, more using that tax. Note, that it would seem exceptionally unfair, IMO, for people that paid all their lives into the tax base, to suddenly be seen as "horrible" for now using medicare. This trend of course will only continue. Going forward, as our populations shrink world wide: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... We'll forever see "lots of older people" being taken care of by "fewer younger people". It used to be there were more young than old. Now the reverse is true, due to improved health care, and now, due to lowered birth rate. There was no 'great resignation'. Instead, what happened during COVID is the start of the boomers retiring. Retired people have worked their entire lives, and still like to enjoy lunches, produce, and yet now there are more of them, than people making things. Well anyhow. This may seem unrelated, but there's a lot of talk at the start of this talk, about population shifts, and collapse, and how it will affect things moving forward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc Short version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9fm6FErHkQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9fm6FErHkQ
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
The baby boomers got old, which is why we peaked in the late 1980s. Now, whatever lull we've had in the crime rate for the last two decades, things are revving back. Theories on why vary, some think it is just entitlement and lack of punishment.
- AngryData 3y ago
  People have been blaming entitlement and lack of punishment as a source of crime for 5,000 years though and yet nobody has ever shown that to be an actual cause. To me it just sounds like an excuse to ignore all the systemic economic and political problems of a society.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Sure, that’s right. I guess it’s just people used to fear getting arrested but it didn’t turn out to be a very useful deterrent. Now we have smash and grabs in busy grocery store parking lots at 12:30 in the afternoon because kids really know the police don’t care. If only we gave those kids food or better economic opportunities, they wouldn’t be doing those smash and grabs in stolen Kias for kicks.
    - Clubber 3y ago
      >I guess it’s just people used to fear getting arrested but it didn’t turn out to be a very useful deterrent. The biggest issue I have with deterrence in the form of criminal justice is that people just don't think they'll get caught. If you don't think you'll get caught, you don't fear repercussions. Deterrence is largely a flawed theory because of this. Politicians keep pushing it because that's really the only answer they have.
  - Georgelemental 3y ago
    > People have been blaming entitlement and lack of punishment as a source of crime for 5,000 years though and yet nobody has ever shown that to be an actual cause. Or maybe, if for 5000 years people from many different civilizations all independently reached the same conclusion, it's because the conclusion is true? Look at El Salvador—punishment introduced, crime eliminated. Seems like pretty solid empirical evidence to me!

b112 3y ago

The population is older (there are fewer young people). Put another way, octogenarians seldom rob at gunpoint.

Clubber 3y ago
Yes, other theories are removal of lead in gasoline, the legalization of abortion, and my personal addition is video games gave restless kids something to do. Also, our population tree has the largest male population alive is currently ages ~19-40, which is the demographic most likely to commit crime. https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyramid-infographic/ https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyra...
- shmoe 3y ago
  Somebody read Freakonomics!
- b112 3y ago
  Yes, but how many were alive 50 years ago? See my other comment
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
pengaru 3y ago
Millenials outnumber Boomers: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomers-us-census-data-largest-living-generation/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomer...
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  That was bound to happen, since many of the boomers are dead now. Just that when boomers were young, crime was also booming. Millennials weren't as big of a generation and didn't seem to do the same things.
- b112 3y ago
  Two thing. Millennials are getting old. about 30 to mid 40s now. That's not the sort of "young" I was talking about. Second, it's not relevant how many young vs old there are, but how many compared to 50 years, 70 years ago. There were a lot more young people back then. Birth rates are very low compared to back then. The world's population will drop by at least 30% in the next few decades, as a result of this.
  - Clubber 3y ago
    I'm sure it was fewer in total number, we only had 211 million people in the US in 1973. As far as relative to the population, I'm not sure. Here's the population tree for 1973. The bulge at the bottom is probably responsible for peak crime in 1991 if you assume most violent crime is from people ~19-40. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/1973/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/1...
    - b112 3y ago
      It doesn't seem like much, but if you just move forward through the years, you can see a bulge moving up the graph. It's quite serious. Medicare, in the US, is seen as "being in a crisis", as the number of taxpayers, relative to the number of "older people who tend to need lots of health care", will shift. Fewer taxpayers, more using that tax. Note, that it would seem exceptionally unfair, IMO, for people that paid all their lives into the tax base, to suddenly be seen as "horrible" for now using medicare. This trend of course will only continue. Going forward, as our populations shrink world wide: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... We'll forever see "lots of older people" being taken care of by "fewer younger people". It used to be there were more young than old. Now the reverse is true, due to improved health care, and now, due to lowered birth rate. There was no 'great resignation'. Instead, what happened during COVID is the start of the boomers retiring. Retired people have worked their entire lives, and still like to enjoy lunches, produce, and yet now there are more of them, than people making things. Well anyhow. This may seem unrelated, but there's a lot of talk at the start of this talk, about population shifts, and collapse, and how it will affect things moving forward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc Short version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9fm6FErHkQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9fm6FErHkQ

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

The baby boomers got old, which is why we peaked in the late 1980s. Now, whatever lull we've had in the crime rate for the last two decades, things are revving back. Theories on why vary, some think it is just entitlement and lack of punishment.

AngryData 3y ago
People have been blaming entitlement and lack of punishment as a source of crime for 5,000 years though and yet nobody has ever shown that to be an actual cause. To me it just sounds like an excuse to ignore all the systemic economic and political problems of a society.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Sure, that’s right. I guess it’s just people used to fear getting arrested but it didn’t turn out to be a very useful deterrent. Now we have smash and grabs in busy grocery store parking lots at 12:30 in the afternoon because kids really know the police don’t care. If only we gave those kids food or better economic opportunities, they wouldn’t be doing those smash and grabs in stolen Kias for kicks.
  - Clubber 3y ago
    >I guess it’s just people used to fear getting arrested but it didn’t turn out to be a very useful deterrent. The biggest issue I have with deterrence in the form of criminal justice is that people just don't think they'll get caught. If you don't think you'll get caught, you don't fear repercussions. Deterrence is largely a flawed theory because of this. Politicians keep pushing it because that's really the only answer they have.
- Georgelemental 3y ago
  > People have been blaming entitlement and lack of punishment as a source of crime for 5,000 years though and yet nobody has ever shown that to be an actual cause. Or maybe, if for 5000 years people from many different civilizations all independently reached the same conclusion, it's because the conclusion is true? Look at El Salvador—punishment introduced, crime eliminated. Seems like pretty solid empirical evidence to me!