5 ms·

What crime wave? https://www.macrotrends.net/states/washington/crime-rate-statistics https://www.macrotrends.net/states/washington/crime-rate-sta... https://r

What crime wave? https://www.macrotrends.net/states/washington/crime-rate-statistics https://www.macrotrends.net/states/washington/crime-rate-sta... https://rpubs.com/moxbox/wa_crime2021 https://rpubs.com/moxbox/wa_crime2021 I'm not even seeing a significant increase, never mind a wave.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Sigh. Yes, we are experiencing a crime wave. No, no one is bother reporting much of it, except for murder, which is illegal not to report. If you want a good idea of where crime really is, look at the homicide rate.
- ofjcihen 3y ago
  Plenty of people have an incentive to report higher numbers of crime. Why would they stay silent? Even the news would love a higher crime rate and they the most capable to sell the story and extract the profits.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Because you report shoplifting or any other property crime for the Nth time without the police even bothering to show up, why keep reporting it? Even an assault on the street isn't worth reporting these days. Unless you have some sort of immediate danger, you'll just be shunted around the phone system and maybe a cop will contact you a few days later at 10PM at night.
    - ofjcihen 3y ago
      Why is that any less of an incentive to report than it was, say, 2 decades ago? Doesn’t it make more sense that the numbers are accurate?
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        The cops didn't take that long to take your report 2 decades ago.
        chaps 3y ago
        LOL. Please back this up with some form of proof.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        It isn't rocket science: https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/mayor-bruce-harrell-new-seattle-police-recruitment-plan-staffing-reaches-30-year-low/281-e98429ee-fc88-47f6-8890-b961393e2047 https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/mayor-bruce... We simply have less cops (and more people) in 2023 than we did in 2003.
        chaps 3y ago
        Friend, I asked for proof -- not conjecture. With everything related to policing, these things are never as simple as "simply have less [sic] cops". Reporting requirements change, dispatch systems change, unit composition changes, etc etc.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        Here: 1. Many less police than 20 years ago 2. Police still have to take reports for these things, not to mention they have other things they have to do. 3. Overworked police have to prioritize what parts of their jobs they get done. There is no conjecture about it, it simply is. And it explains how Seattle reported crime was down 4% in 2022 while homicide was up 24%. > With everything related to policing, these things are never as simple as "simply have less [sic] cops". Reporting requirements change, dispatch systems change, unit composition changes, etc etc. Those things change very slowly, if at all, over 20 years. They still need people to pick up the phone, and online reporting isn't applicable to larger crimes (they'll tell you that you can't file online and must call the non-emergency number).
    - Larrikin 3y ago
      It sounds like you're just making it up because you are refusing to cite any evidence and you have been asked multiple times for evidence
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        I've cited plenty of evidence. It looks like some people have a certain reality that they want to believe is true, while the rest of us just suffer from having to live with the actual reality.
      - michaelmrose 3y ago
        I'm not the original poster but I can confirm that in many maybe even most reporting crimes makes little sense. I chased off an ex coworker who was literally throttling another coworker in a Walmart parking lot. The police arrived after and declined to take a statement, or evidence, or pursue the matter even though the attacker had a known name and address. A local yokel tried to burn my apartment building down twice setting a fire in the interior stairwell at the top of the building around midnight endangering 50 some apartments. He lost his phone at the scene of attempt 1 and 30 days later came back to try again but nobody put any serious effort towards this. Locally the perp is throught to be a local drug dealer who.. Assaulted a neighbor in the parking lot on a different occasion before I pepper gelled him. Police actually showed up for that one again after it was over and threatened me with prosecution for pepper spraying the fellow that attacked someone. In Seattle I dealt with multiple dangerous situations with looney tunes that are literally mental patients wandering the streets committing crimes many times by GTFO a few times by standing up to crazies that were threatening me or mine and once with judicious application of pepper spray vs a fellow that had already got physical. In no case would it have been possible to get a cop during the situation nor useful to consult thereafter. They literally announced in 2022 that they had no detectives to handle new sexual assault cases THAT YEAR https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/seattle-police-halted-investigating-adult-sexual-assaults-this-year-internal-memo-shows/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/sea... They sure as fuck aren't assigning any resources to figure at which mental patient tried to punch a citizen. This is the same reason you see property crime unreported unless such a report is specifically required for insurance purposes. No law enforcement nor prosecutorial resources will be tasked if its reported. For instance I witnessed hundreds of cases of attempted or successful shoplifting that certainly exceeded the figure required for it to be a felony but I myself reported zero to the police nor was I allowed to do so and I know for a fact few if any were pursued for the same logical reason. There is no reason to believe that the city or state would carry such an endeavor to completion. Then there was the fellow that broke into our building and pushed my wife down and tried to steal her keys. Had to handle that one myself too and put the fellow on the ground. To their credit the cops did show up again after the fact to actually haul the idiot off and charge him. If you gift wrap an incredibly clear cut case and apprehend the bad buy the cops will after the dangerous situation is over act as a glorified taxi and move the bad guy for you. A whole lot of work to move one addict from a cell to a drug treatment program he hopefully completed. Anecdotally it does feel like its getting worse in the last several years.
- Clubber 3y ago
  I'm bad at math today. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate#:~:text=U.S.%20murder%2Fhomicide%20rate%20for,a%205.99%25%20decline%20from%202017 https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murd.... We do have an uptick, but calling it a "crime wave," is loaded language. Last time we had something like this, the word "super predators," was thrown around and we got the 1994 crime bill which put a whole bunch of petty criminals (drug users) and innocent minorities behind bars for decades. It also was the start of really aggressive policing and little care for constitutional rights, which lead to the state they are in today. All this while crime was actually going down. Be very careful with the crime hysterics in the news. Any meaningful change will require funding and supporting youth programs like the YMCA, Big Brother programs, getting kids interested in organized sports and whatnot. It will also require fully funding schools in the middle and especially lower class zip codes. You have to get kids to see there is a way to be successful outside of gangs and crime. Any politician that promises to fix the problem by throwing people (petty criminals) in jail for longer (tough on crime) is just trying to serve a dual agenda (more aggressive police headcount) and not trying to solve the crime problem.
  - lambdaphagy 3y ago
    The data you linked and the comparison you suggest (2014 vs 2021) shows a ~54% increase in homicides over that time period ((6.81 homicides / 100k people / yr) / (4.40 / homicides / 100k people / yr) ~= 1.54.
    - Clubber 3y ago
      I'm bad at math today. We do have an uptick, but calling it a "crime wave," is loaded language. Last time we had something like this, the word "super predators," was thrown around and we got the 1994 crime bill which put a whole bunch of petty (drug users) criminals and minorities behind bars. It also was the start of really aggressive policing and little care for constitutional rights, which lead to the state they are in today. All this while crime was actually going down. Be very careful with the hysterics in the news. Sry for the double post, replacing my bad math comment with a more meaningful one.
- sophacles 3y ago
  This is a joke right? "Ignore the evidence... no wait, just trust me bro, the actual facts are opposite of the evidence" Can you back up your claim with evidence?
  - throw_nbvc1234 3y ago
    https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/16j6cw0/nearly_1100_cars_were_stolen_in_seattle_in_august/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/16j6cw0/nearly_110...
- chaps 3y ago
  Burden's on you to show there's "crime wave" considering "crime" is going down across the board, ignoring the spike that happened during covid and 2020 protests (which is normalizing back towards the downwards means). If you're able to provide a source that takes into account agencies not reporting NIBRS data, it's welcome.
  - jrflowers 3y ago
    It is one of those invisible waves, like sound waves or the wave of anger that washes over one when looking at a graph of crime showing a downward trend. As one of those intangible waves it can only be explained qualitatively not quantitatively.
  - Georgelemental 3y ago
    Homicide rate is up, and homicide is the best reported crime.
- solardev 3y ago
  I feel like "crime wave" is one of those loaded terms these days that's incapable of being discussed factually, just another victim of the culture wars. We don't live in shared realities anymore...
Georgelemental 3y ago
No data past 2021?
- EA-3167 3y ago
  None that I could find!
Clubber 3y ago
Peak crime was around the 1990s. Crime has been dropping ever since and no one really knows why, though some theories are interesting. All this crime wave talk is just news / politicians trying to scare us.
- b112 3y ago
  The population is older (there are fewer young people). Put another way, octogenarians seldom rob at gunpoint.
  - Clubber 3y ago
    Yes, other theories are removal of lead in gasoline, the legalization of abortion, and my personal addition is video games gave restless kids something to do. Also, our population tree has the largest male population alive is currently ages ~19-40, which is the demographic most likely to commit crime. https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyramid-infographic/ https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyra...
    - shmoe 3y ago
      Somebody read Freakonomics!
    - b112 3y ago
      Yes, but how many were alive 50 years ago? See my other comment
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
  - pengaru 3y ago
    Millenials outnumber Boomers: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomers-us-census-data-largest-living-generation/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomer...

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

Sigh. Yes, we are experiencing a crime wave. No, no one is bother reporting much of it, except for murder, which is illegal not to report. If you want a good idea of where crime really is, look at the homicide rate.

ofjcihen 3y ago
Plenty of people have an incentive to report higher numbers of crime. Why would they stay silent? Even the news would love a higher crime rate and they the most capable to sell the story and extract the profits.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Because you report shoplifting or any other property crime for the Nth time without the police even bothering to show up, why keep reporting it? Even an assault on the street isn't worth reporting these days. Unless you have some sort of immediate danger, you'll just be shunted around the phone system and maybe a cop will contact you a few days later at 10PM at night.
  - ofjcihen 3y ago
    Why is that any less of an incentive to report than it was, say, 2 decades ago? Doesn’t it make more sense that the numbers are accurate?
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      The cops didn't take that long to take your report 2 decades ago.
      - chaps 3y ago
        LOL. Please back this up with some form of proof.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        It isn't rocket science: https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/mayor-bruce-harrell-new-seattle-police-recruitment-plan-staffing-reaches-30-year-low/281-e98429ee-fc88-47f6-8890-b961393e2047 https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/mayor-bruce... We simply have less cops (and more people) in 2023 than we did in 2003.
        chaps 3y ago
        Friend, I asked for proof -- not conjecture. With everything related to policing, these things are never as simple as "simply have less [sic] cops". Reporting requirements change, dispatch systems change, unit composition changes, etc etc.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        Here: 1. Many less police than 20 years ago 2. Police still have to take reports for these things, not to mention they have other things they have to do. 3. Overworked police have to prioritize what parts of their jobs they get done. There is no conjecture about it, it simply is. And it explains how Seattle reported crime was down 4% in 2022 while homicide was up 24%. > With everything related to policing, these things are never as simple as "simply have less [sic] cops". Reporting requirements change, dispatch systems change, unit composition changes, etc etc. Those things change very slowly, if at all, over 20 years. They still need people to pick up the phone, and online reporting isn't applicable to larger crimes (they'll tell you that you can't file online and must call the non-emergency number).
  - Larrikin 3y ago
    It sounds like you're just making it up because you are refusing to cite any evidence and you have been asked multiple times for evidence
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      I've cited plenty of evidence. It looks like some people have a certain reality that they want to believe is true, while the rest of us just suffer from having to live with the actual reality.
    - michaelmrose 3y ago
      I'm not the original poster but I can confirm that in many maybe even most reporting crimes makes little sense. I chased off an ex coworker who was literally throttling another coworker in a Walmart parking lot. The police arrived after and declined to take a statement, or evidence, or pursue the matter even though the attacker had a known name and address. A local yokel tried to burn my apartment building down twice setting a fire in the interior stairwell at the top of the building around midnight endangering 50 some apartments. He lost his phone at the scene of attempt 1 and 30 days later came back to try again but nobody put any serious effort towards this. Locally the perp is throught to be a local drug dealer who.. Assaulted a neighbor in the parking lot on a different occasion before I pepper gelled him. Police actually showed up for that one again after it was over and threatened me with prosecution for pepper spraying the fellow that attacked someone. In Seattle I dealt with multiple dangerous situations with looney tunes that are literally mental patients wandering the streets committing crimes many times by GTFO a few times by standing up to crazies that were threatening me or mine and once with judicious application of pepper spray vs a fellow that had already got physical. In no case would it have been possible to get a cop during the situation nor useful to consult thereafter. They literally announced in 2022 that they had no detectives to handle new sexual assault cases THAT YEAR https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/seattle-police-halted-investigating-adult-sexual-assaults-this-year-internal-memo-shows/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/sea... They sure as fuck aren't assigning any resources to figure at which mental patient tried to punch a citizen. This is the same reason you see property crime unreported unless such a report is specifically required for insurance purposes. No law enforcement nor prosecutorial resources will be tasked if its reported. For instance I witnessed hundreds of cases of attempted or successful shoplifting that certainly exceeded the figure required for it to be a felony but I myself reported zero to the police nor was I allowed to do so and I know for a fact few if any were pursued for the same logical reason. There is no reason to believe that the city or state would carry such an endeavor to completion. Then there was the fellow that broke into our building and pushed my wife down and tried to steal her keys. Had to handle that one myself too and put the fellow on the ground. To their credit the cops did show up again after the fact to actually haul the idiot off and charge him. If you gift wrap an incredibly clear cut case and apprehend the bad buy the cops will after the dangerous situation is over act as a glorified taxi and move the bad guy for you. A whole lot of work to move one addict from a cell to a drug treatment program he hopefully completed. Anecdotally it does feel like its getting worse in the last several years.
Clubber 3y ago
I'm bad at math today. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate#:~:text=U.S.%20murder%2Fhomicide%20rate%20for,a%205.99%25%20decline%20from%202017 https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murd.... We do have an uptick, but calling it a "crime wave," is loaded language. Last time we had something like this, the word "super predators," was thrown around and we got the 1994 crime bill which put a whole bunch of petty criminals (drug users) and innocent minorities behind bars for decades. It also was the start of really aggressive policing and little care for constitutional rights, which lead to the state they are in today. All this while crime was actually going down. Be very careful with the crime hysterics in the news. Any meaningful change will require funding and supporting youth programs like the YMCA, Big Brother programs, getting kids interested in organized sports and whatnot. It will also require fully funding schools in the middle and especially lower class zip codes. You have to get kids to see there is a way to be successful outside of gangs and crime. Any politician that promises to fix the problem by throwing people (petty criminals) in jail for longer (tough on crime) is just trying to serve a dual agenda (more aggressive police headcount) and not trying to solve the crime problem.
- lambdaphagy 3y ago
  The data you linked and the comparison you suggest (2014 vs 2021) shows a ~54% increase in homicides over that time period ((6.81 homicides / 100k people / yr) / (4.40 / homicides / 100k people / yr) ~= 1.54.
  - Clubber 3y ago
    I'm bad at math today. We do have an uptick, but calling it a "crime wave," is loaded language. Last time we had something like this, the word "super predators," was thrown around and we got the 1994 crime bill which put a whole bunch of petty (drug users) criminals and minorities behind bars. It also was the start of really aggressive policing and little care for constitutional rights, which lead to the state they are in today. All this while crime was actually going down. Be very careful with the hysterics in the news. Sry for the double post, replacing my bad math comment with a more meaningful one.
sophacles 3y ago
This is a joke right? "Ignore the evidence... no wait, just trust me bro, the actual facts are opposite of the evidence" Can you back up your claim with evidence?
- throw_nbvc1234 3y ago
  https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/16j6cw0/nearly_1100_cars_were_stolen_in_seattle_in_august/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/16j6cw0/nearly_110...
chaps 3y ago
Burden's on you to show there's "crime wave" considering "crime" is going down across the board, ignoring the spike that happened during covid and 2020 protests (which is normalizing back towards the downwards means). If you're able to provide a source that takes into account agencies not reporting NIBRS data, it's welcome.
- jrflowers 3y ago
  It is one of those invisible waves, like sound waves or the wave of anger that washes over one when looking at a graph of crime showing a downward trend. As one of those intangible waves it can only be explained qualitatively not quantitatively.
- Georgelemental 3y ago
  Homicide rate is up, and homicide is the best reported crime.
solardev 3y ago
I feel like "crime wave" is one of those loaded terms these days that's incapable of being discussed factually, just another victim of the culture wars. We don't live in shared realities anymore...

Georgelemental 3y ago

No data past 2021?

EA-3167 3y ago
None that I could find!

Clubber 3y ago

Peak crime was around the 1990s. Crime has been dropping ever since and no one really knows why, though some theories are interesting. All this crime wave talk is just news / politicians trying to scare us.

b112 3y ago
The population is older (there are fewer young people). Put another way, octogenarians seldom rob at gunpoint.
- Clubber 3y ago
  Yes, other theories are removal of lead in gasoline, the legalization of abortion, and my personal addition is video games gave restless kids something to do. Also, our population tree has the largest male population alive is currently ages ~19-40, which is the demographic most likely to commit crime. https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyramid-infographic/ https://populationeducation.org/resource/u-s-population-pyra...
  - shmoe 3y ago
    Somebody read Freakonomics!
  - b112 3y ago
    Yes, but how many were alive 50 years ago? See my other comment
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- pengaru 3y ago
  Millenials outnumber Boomers: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomers-us-census-data-largest-living-generation/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-surpass-baby-boomer...